Archives for September 2016

The playoffs are a certainty. NYC beat Chicago and the other dominoes fell properly this week so NYCFC has clinched a playoff spot, as did Toronto and the Red Bulls, all at the same time when the Red Bulls beat Montreal. I do not find myself particularly excited by this. I think the reason is that it has been a near certainty for 2-3 months, and a true (if not mathematical) certainty for 2-3 weeks.  Also the specific result that put the Bluebirds over the top was a bad result for the team in all other respects.  NYCCF is in a battle with the Red Bulls for Second Place in the conference and a first round playoff bye. The Pigeons really need the Red Bulls to drop points. That this RB win happened to clinch a playoff spot for NYCFC, which I considered a given anyway, was not even bittersweet. I just wanted NYRB to lose. Finally, with the other results this weekend NYC would have clinched once Columbus beat New England in the last game of the week Sunday night. With all that, I haven’t lost sight of how great it is the team is doing well and comfortably made the playoffs in its second year.

Apart from that Red Bull win it was overall it was a good weekend of results for NYCFC. The problem is that the most immediate concern is the Red Bulls and second place. Every other team we are trying to catch dropped points but they still seem hard to reach.

The Red Bulls and NYCFC won and everyone else dropped points.  The Galaxy lost, and every other team drew.  NYCFC is likely to lose the tie-breakers to everyone but LAG, so has to finish ahead on points to finish ahead.  As this chart shows, even if NYCFC wins out its remaining 3 games, they need Dalls to drop 6 points, Colorado 7, and Toronto 4.  The team that’s in reach and has the most immediate reward is the Red Bulls.  Also, it is unclear if finishing ahead of the West Conference teams will have any helpful results.  A spot in the CONCACAF Champions League is — maybe — up for grabs but there are so many movings parts to that calculus it seems too remote.  NYC needs to win and get help, or it will likely finish third in the conference, and my disappointment with that prospect is clearly of the moment. pre-season I would have taken it gladly.  It also seemed wildly optimistic on June 3, when the team had just lost at home to RSL, the Home record was 1-3-5, and the PPG overall PPG was 1.20.  By the way, I feel much more optimistic than this post is coming out.

Some basics:

v East: 8-7-7 1.41 PPG
v West: 5-2-2 1.89 PPG
—————————-
Home: 7-3-6 1.69 PPG
Away 6-6-3 1.4 PPG

The what needs to be done chart can start losing possibilities at the bottom with every new point:

This chart is officially meaningless to NYCFC but goes up for reference anyway. DC United is dragging the playoff line up just a bit.

DC United is dragging the playoff line up just a bit. They have lost only once in their last 10 games, over which their PPG is 1.50 compared to 1.10 the rest of the season.  They are the only one of NYCFC’s remaining opponents over the playoff line at the moment.  But, the other two are also playing their best ball of the season, unfortunately. The Dynamo, who host NYCFC this coming Friday, are at 1.40 PPG in the last 10 compared to 0.95 before that, and Columbus is also 1.40 over the last 10 compared to a truly dismal 0.83 before that.

NYC has two road games left and has not won Away since July 17 at Montreal.  NYC’s only remaining home game is against Columbus which is the only East Conference team NYCFC has never beaten.  IF NYCFC finishes strong some negative streaks will end.

Montreal’s maximum point number is 50. DCU sits at 49.  NYCFC have 48 points today. One NYCFC win, or Impact or DCU loss, and NYCFC clinches finishing at least in Fourth Place and a home playoff game in the first round of the playoffs.

I present your Third Place New York City Football Club. Ugh.

What a bad week of results.  The only real positive was that DC United pulled back a tie after being down 2-0 to the Red Bulls. Thanks to that NYC is tied with RB and not 2 points behind. The Philadelphia/Montreal tie was good, but neither team seems much of a threat.  Toronto’s win in Chicago ends TFC’s “tough”schedule stretch in which they had to play 4 of 5 on the road before finishing with 5 of 6 at home. Before that 4 0f 5 stretch started I wrote“If TFC gets just 7 or 8 points in their next 5 tough games they are in very good shape even if NYC gets 18-20 more points overall.TFC is very likely to get 12 points in their last 6, with 5 of them at home against weak road teams. So 8 + 12 would mean 20 points in their last 11 and 56 total. NYC needs to go 6-2-2 to beat that. That’s doable, but I’d feel a lot better if TFC gets say, 5 or 6 points in the next 5 games. ”

Well, TFC got 10 points in those 5 games, oddly winning 3 of the 4 Away and losing at Home. In that same period NYC earned only 7 points in 5 games. Now TFC sites 2 points up plus a game in hand. First place seems extremely unlikely. But who knows. Maybe TFC collapses at home.  I would not count on it but this season is very unpredictable so it would not be a shock either.

The larger concern is being tied with the Red Bulls with 5 games to go. We both have 3 Home Games and 2 Away. At this point we are both strong at Home and weak Away. We could easily finish tied. The first tiebreaker is Number of Wins. We are currently even and with 5 games to go it is likely that if we finish tied the two teams will still be tied on Wins. Yes, NYC could go 3-2-0 while RB goes 2-0-3 but more likely we stay tied on Wins.  Then the nest tiebreaker is Goal Differential. Here, there is no hope. RB has a +12 GD and NYC sits at -1.  The odds of that changing while the teams remain tied on Points and Wins is effectively zero. Even if NYC gets 5 wins and RB gets 5 losses it is not so very likely to change. The point being that NYC needs to finish ahead of RB on points to finish ahead of RB, to finish second, and to get the first-round playoff bye. Barring a convenient NY-RB collapse, NYC will need to resume winning on the road.

NYC’s poor Away form means the team has not had even a solid 2-game streak of good results since winning 4 in a row in a streak that straddled June and July. In the 10 games since then the best “streak” for NYC was 2 draws in a row as the results have been L-W-L-W-D-D-W-L-W-L.  Whether NYC can change its road results back to positive will likely determine where it finishes. Getting either 4 or 6 points in the final 2 Away games would be huge. Even getting 3 could be a difference maker.

The East Conference PPG Playoff line is still pointing in the low 40s, with no indication it will move anywhere near last year’s line of 49.

Even if Orlando goes on a streak, Montreal seems stuck in a mid-40s range and is drifting lower right now, so that is probably a ceiling on this year’s line.

Finally, and sadly, I had to cross out 3 possibilities at the top of the What-We-Need-To-Do chart.

It is impossible to get 62, 60,, or 58 points.  A record of 5-0-0 would get 59, not shown on the chart. That is the team’s maximum right now.

UPDATE: I forgot to add the following earlier.

With the loss to NE Revs, NYC’s record against the East drops to a very mediocre 7-7-7 for 1.33 PPG. Against the West the Blue Birds are 5-2-1 and 2.0 PPG.

The Home Record is 6-3-5 1.64 PPG and the Away record drops to 6-6-3 1.40 PPG.

Finally, the loss also means limited headway on the playoff clinching front. A win would have guaranteed that NYC finishes ahead of the Revs. Instead it still takes a minimum of two games of perfect results to clinch over the Revs, as well as Chicago and Columbus. It will take at least 3 good game results to do the same for DCU or Orlando.

• NYCFC are back in first place on points but still behind Toronto, who did not play, in PPG.  This was a less than stellar week for results, largely because the Red Bulls got a win on the road in Vancouver. The competition to finish in the top 2 and sit out the first round of the playoffs is now very tight. NYC has 44 points but both the Red Bulls and TFC sit at 43. TFC also has a game in hand and 5 of its 7 remaining games at home. So despite NYC being technically in 1st place the club needs help — in the form of other teams beating TFC — to stay ahead of them. The other increased worry are the Red Bulls, who are a point behind and even on games played, but gained an advantage for themselves by finally winning a road game for the first time since the Red Bull Wedding on May 21. It was only their second Away win all year. This was big because they now have 4 of their remaining 6 games at Home.  They last lost at Home on April 9 and won 9 out of 10 since then.  If they win out at home (4 of 6) and NYC wins out at home (3 of 6) they leapfrog over NYC subject to a minimal likelihood of Away draws  making a difference for NYC.
• As a result, if TFC does not collapse at least a little due to Giovinco’s injury, and if the Red Bulls stay true to their Home form, then NYC probably needs both to win out at Home and to get another Road win to stay in the top 2 spots.  NYC’s last Away win was July 17 against montreal and they have only one Away win in their last 6 tries. Streaks seem inevitable while they are happening, but they all end, and NYC needs to end its modest winless road streak.  It would also help if the Red Bulls undefeated home streak ends.
• Here are the PPG standings mentioned in the first sentence and the projected finish based on pure multiplication over 34 games. As I have previously noted, this late in the season the final projection becomes rather meaningless as a rather brief run of unexpected good or bad results can alter the finish considerably. I post it largely for archival purposes.

• You can see the tightness of the first 3 spots, a slight gap to the next two, and then the bigger gap to the remaining 5 teams vying for the last playoff spot.
• Playoff Clinching Update: NYC can guarantee finishing ahead of New England in a minimum of 2 games. SInce they play each other this weekend, that games counts as 2 and a win by NYC would ensure that NYC cannot finish below the Revs and mathematically has clinched finishing above 10th place.  The remaining bottom teams have played fewer games and so it will take a minimum of 3 games for NYC to ensure finishing ahead of Chicago and Columbus, and 4 games to finish ahead of DCU and Orlando.  Once NYC has mathematically achieved its magic number for 4 of those 5 teams it has guaranteed itself a playoff spot. Any non-win by NYC delays this as does any positive result by these teams. It seems likely NYC will clinch a playoff spot in the next 2-4 weeks at most. Regardless, the playoffs are a virtual certainty right now.
• Here is the updated chart of what some possible finishes get NYC in terms of a final points total.

Effectively, the 60-point mark of excellence will require no more losses, as does even 58. A finish in the range of 55-57 seems most likely, but as noted, an unusual run of good or bad results pushes higher or lower.  It would be great if the team could return to its Away form of May through mid-July when it won 5 of 7 Away games. That run defines NYC’s success this year. It is the reason a playoff spot is all but guaranteed and a top 2 finish is in sight.

• Finally, the thrilling Home win against DC United leaves the East/West and H/A splits as follows:
  v West: 5-2-1 2.00 PPG
  v East: 7-6-7 1.40 PPG

  Home 6-3-5 1.64 PPG
  Away 6-5-3 1.50 PPG

• The anomalies persist: if NYC did as well against the somewhat weaker East as it does against the West it would be running away with the COnference. Similarly, NYC’s home record is not nearly as impressive as the Away record, even though they are moderately better at Home. Normal teams are much, much, better at Home than Away.  Here is a look at the East Conference Home PPG standings to bring that into focus:

NYC sits in Fifth Place, barely ahead of the real-life 9th Place Chicago Fire. NYC’s record of only 1 win in its first 9 Home games kept them from running away with the conference.