Archives for August 2015

Well hell, nobody wants to read this but here it is.

First, it’s looking more and more like it will take 43 or even 44 points to finish in 6th place. We’re projecting to 35-36, and at some point, as Parcells used to say, you are what your record is.

Second, we have gone to hell since we started playing our transfers:

From our low point after the RSL game we got 13 points in 6 games. Then transfers came in, and wow. Blame the players, blame Kreis, blame chemistry, blame better opponents. These have been a crappy 5 games.

All of the following are Win-Lose-Draw
6-2-3 45 points
6-3-2 44 points
5-2-4 43 points
6-4-1 43 points
5-3-3 42 points
5-4-2 41 points

Right now these all seem out of reach. The remaining games:

How we got here. The lines mark the season low point and the game when transfers started playing.

Bad week. Even Chicago won. Here are the East Conference PPG Standings:

We’re closer to Chicago behind us than Orlando ahead of us. Worse, the projected Sixth Place PPG has moved up, with New England at 44 and Orlando outside and looking in at 42. That’s a mechanical projection and definitely not definitive but certainly not good. Anybody who is still predicting that the playoff line will be at 40 or lower has to start wondering when the line will move big that way.
This page
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html
says we have an 18% chance at making the playoffs overall. It also says if we finish with 42 points our chance of making the playoffs is in the low 30% range, but if we get 43 points that jumps to mid 50%. So the target for “barely likely” to reach the playoffs is right at 42-43 points, consistent with my earlier guesstimates. Also 45 points has us with an 88% chance and 46 95%. Again these are consistent with my guesses.

To do to get there with 12 games remaining.

To reach 45 points we need to get 1.75 PPG over the remaining 12.
To reach 43 points we need to get 1.58 PPG over the remaining 12.
To reach 42 Points we need to get 1.5 PPG over the remaining 12.

6 W 3L 3T gets us to 45 points
6W 4L 2T gets us to 44 points
5 W 3L 4T gets us to 43 points
6 W 6L 1T gets us to 43 points
5 W 4L 3T gets us to 42 points
5 W 5L 2T gets us to 41 points

This is completely unfair, but since Iraola and Angelino, our first transfers showed up, we are 1-2-1 for 4 points in 4 games. Keep that up and we’re dead soon. In our last 10 games we earned 17 points for 1.7 PPG. Keep that up and we get 44 points.