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NYCFC 2017 Regular Season — Final Weekly Update

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Regular Season Wrap Up. Not trying to be comprehensive. First, the last charts. I dropped 2015.

  • The total points lines and PPG for 2015 and 16 look like they kiss around week 11 or 12 but they don’t. 2017 took the lead in Game 5 and never fell back afterwards.
  • On the rolling 5-Game PPG, 2016 was both better and worse in the first part of the season. 2017 did better in the middle third, and then had a bad end. Even with a seesaw chart, 2016 finished better than 2017.
  • After 17 games halfway through the season the Goal Differential was +11. 538 predicted a final GD of +14. I thought they were nuts, and ridiculously undervaluing NYCFC. I expect many others did also. It ended at +13.
  • The GD first hit +13 on June 29 after 18 games. Over the last 16 games the subset GD was 0. After slipping to +9 after the TFC 4-0 loss on July 29, the GD climbed to its high of+14 after the win over SKC on September 9 in Game 27. Over the last 10 games of the season, the GD was either +13 or +14 every week.
  • After 17 games the team had 30 points which projects cleanly to 60, and 538 predicted only 55. It ended at 57.

I tend to divide the seasons into quarters, but a discussion I had elsewhere led me to see how this year is best divided into thirds. As 34 only divides by 2 and 17, the units consist of 12 games, then 11 and 11. Here is a simple table and chart showing how Goals For per game, Goals Against per game, and PPG went in each third of the season:

  • Finally, the Home Away Charts for the year. I do not know why 2 of them make it look like we played more Away games than at Home. It’s a weird Excel thing I can’t figure how to adjust.
  • The odd thing here is that the team had its best results when it had the lowest average Goal Differential. Part of this is luck. In the first third NYC lost 4 games each by one goal, while its average winning margin in 6 games was better than 2. In the middle third NYC won 6 games by a total of 8 goals, while it lost only 3 games by an average differential of more than 2.
  • The other story is that the GA spiked a whole lot in the middle. Then both it and Goals For went way down in the last third, as did PPG. NYC had a lot of missing players during that period, but I have seen comments indicating that fans believed NYC was less aggressive. I have to wonder if Vieira was so concerned about the sharp increase in team defense that he allowed the offense to stagnate as part of what he considered a necessary corrective.

 

  • No surprises. We were a better Home team all year. In 2016 NYC was actually better Away for half the season. In 2017 NYC earned 5 more points at Home and 2 fewer on the Road compared to 2016.
  • NYC earned 1.77 PPG in Primary Kit games (30 games). 1.33 PPG in the Hypnokit (3 Games), and 0.0 PPG in Eco Kit games (1). Sorry oceans, but that’s a bad performance, especially as it was a Home game.
  • In its 2 years the HypnoKit earned 1.75 PPG in 8 regular season games.
  • NYC performed mildly better against the East (1.69 PPG) than West (1.64). Last year NYC earned 2.0 PPG against the West against only 1.42 against the East. NYC had the odd extra home game against the West and one less against the East which did not apply last year with 10 teams in each conference.

NYCFC Update: 32 Games In and The Past Is A Foreign Country

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“Some things are so unexpected that no one is prepared for them. “
 
NYC scored 1.84 Goals per Game through 25 games on August  19, and has 0.86 Goals per Game in the 7 games since then.
NYCFC’s  PPG was 1.84 through 25 games, it is 1.43 in the last 7, and down to 1.75 overall.
NYC had 4 draws in its first 25 games and 4 in the last 7.
NYC scored at least 2 goals in 16 of its first 25 games and hasn’t done so once in the last 7.
“I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer.”
Here are some more trends about other teams that might affect NYC:
Atlanta’s last loss was August 23 and that streak covers 8 games.
New England is in 8th Place but until last night it won every home game it played going back to July 5. It was tied for the 4th best Home record in the entire league.  Toronto has lost 5 games all season and 2 of those 5 were in Gillette Stadium. New England outplayed Atlanta in New England last night and Atlanta still got a point.
NYC’s next game is in New England, who still is tied for 4th Best Home Record.
Minnesota won 0 of its first 10 Away games, but won 2 of the last 4. Minnesota also is still terrible. They have scored 18 goals in their 14 Away Games. Atlanta last conceded a goal at Home in July, in a different stadium. Atlanta has 6 Clean Sheets in its last 7 games.
Atlanta’s next game after Minnesota is in in Harrison, NJ.  It is Atlanta’s last remaining Away game. The Red Bulls have not won Home or Away since August 12.  Their tailspin is far worse than NYCFC’s.  If they beat Vancouver in the intervening game they have nothing meaningful to play for. If they do not beat Vancouver they will have failed to win for 10 straight games when they face Atlanta.
After Minnesota, Atlanta’s streak of games on short rest ends. They will have 11 days off before playing in New Jersey.
“An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – for support rather than for illumination. “
 
If Minnesota gets any result in Atlanta next week that will be huge.  If Minnesota gets a draw, NYC will go into the final 2 games with a major advantage, but would still have to win both of the last 2 games to be guaranteed second regardless of what Atlanta did from that point. If Minnesota manages a win, NYC has some more flexibility.
If Atlanta beats Minnesota as expected, they will be tied with NYC on points and a massive advantage on tiebreakers. Both will have 2 games left.
October 15: Atlanta Away at Red Bull Arena; NYC Away at New England. Playing in New England is the tougher game. Just ask Toronto. But NYC is a better Away team than Atlanta.
October 22: Atlanta hosts Toronto; NYC hosts Columbus. Toronto is making MLS history. They also have the best Away record in the league. Atlanta has the third best home record in the league. The entire league is looking forward to this game. I consider it a toss-up.  Toronto will be playing for nothing that matters, except maybe pride and sending a message against a potential playoff opponent.  They could rest their best and just try to avoid injury, or go all out.
  • If NYC comes out of October 15 3 points behind Atlanta then NYC cannot catch up given the tiebreakers.
  • If NYC comes out of Oct 15  2 points behind Atlanta NYC gets second by beating Columbus and an ATL loss.
  • If NYC comes out of Oct 15  1 point behind Atlanta NYC gets second by beating Columbus and an ATL draw or loss.
  • If NYC comes out of Oct 15  even with Atlanta NYC gets second with any better result than Atlanta. A win against Columbus means nothing without some result for Toronto.
  • If NYC comes out of Oct 15 1 point ahead, NYC gets second with a win, or a draw and Atlanta draw or loss, or a loss and Atlanta loss.
  • If NYC comes out of Oct 15 2 or 3 points ahead, NYC gets second with a win, or a draw and Atlanta draw or loss, or a loss and Atlanta loss or draw.
“Current trends always seem like they will go on forever, until they don’t.”
Back in mid-August, nobody expected NYC’s to go 7 games without scoring 2 goals, or that the Red Bulls would not only slump but completely stop winning, or that Minnesota would win 2 of 4 Away games, or that Atlanta would have 6 shutouts in 7 games.
NYC needs a turnaround. Predicting it would be foolish. Being surprised if it happens would be even dumber.
Let’s hope.

NYC Week 30 Mid-Week Scenarios September 30

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Scenarios
NYCFC has clinched a playoff spot, but has not yet guaranteed finishing higher than Sixth Place.
Fifth Place
The magic number for the Red Bulls is 1. Any point won by NYC or dropped by RB guarantees at least 5th place.
Fourth Place
The magic number for the Columbus is 2. Any 2 points won/lost guarantees 4th place & a knockout round home game.
Third Place
The magic number for Chicago is 6. A NYC win tonight clinches. If Chicago wins they are 1 point back with 2 to play and the magic number remains 6. Chicago finishes Home against Philadelphia and Away at Houston.  That is a very likely 3 points won and 3 dropped for Chicago, and if that happens NYC could win with nothing more than a win at home against Columbus, but it goes down to the last game.
Second Place
The magic number for Atlanta is 10.  NYC can only win 9. Atlanta’s magic number against NYC is 13 and they can only win 12, but they have such an enormous tiebreaker advantage, that their “might-as-well-be” magic number is 12.
NYC Schedule At Chicago, At New England, Home Columbus
ATL Schedule At New England, Home Minnesota, At Red Bulls, Home Toronto
I’m going to treat the NYC home game against Columbus and ATL against Minnesota as gimmes.  Of course both could drop points in their gimme game, but if they do they create a huge opening for the other that is so obvious it is not worth analyzing in any depth.
  1. Let’s start with a worst case scenario that NYC only gets 3 more points beating Columbus at home.  After the ATL gimme against Minnesota, they need 1 more win either at NE, in Harrison NJ, or home against TFC. Or a draw in all 3. That’s very doable but arguably all of those are tougher than Atlanta’s last 6 at home where they got 16 of 18 points. Even the Revs in Gillette are tough. It’s not super tough for Atlanta but NYC has a shot even if it loses the next 2 Away, at least as of now. If Atlanta wins tonight in New England that alters.
  2. NYC gets 4 points. One draw against CHI or NER plus the home win against Columbus.  Atlanta needs 7 points. Beat Minnesota, plus a win and a draw in New England, in Harrison, or home against Toronto. A bit tougher.
  3. NYC gets 5 points. Draws away at both CHI and NER and beat Columbus on decision day. Now Atlanta needs 8 points, which means either 3 wins, or results in every one of its remaining games (2 wins and 2 draws).
  4. NYC gets 6 points: 1 Away win and 1 Home win. Atlanta needs to win 3 of its remaining 4 games to get the 9 points.
  5. NYC gets 7 points. 2 Wins (H/A) and 1 Away draw. Atlanta needs 10 points. 3 Wins and 1 Draw.
  6. If NYC gets 9 points, ATL also has to win out the last 4.
Draw your own conclusions. For me, just 4 more points for NYC makes things modestly tough for Atlanta but no better than a 50-50 call.  5 points probably puts NYC at better than 50% to finish in Second, and every point above that just adds to the advantage.
My other takeaway is that a 3-point lead this late, even against a team with a game in hand, is quite valuable. The simple summary is that Atlanta has to match whatever NYC does game for game, plus win the one extra game it plays.  And that’s probably harder than what NYC has to do.

NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers – MLS Week 29 September 24

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Dropping in this quick update before the games tonight change everything. On this first chart I noticed that NYC’s PPG is still ahead of Atlanta’s even though they control their destiny. This isn’t a secret. The PPG is right on the MLS Standings page. But I think many NYCFC fans lost sight of it with all the bad news. Another reminder, Atlanta only controls its own destiny if they win out, which would be 5 in a row on top of the 2-game streak they are riding. I expect they will drop points. The issue is will NYCFC drop few enough to stay ahead.

Another reminder is NYC also still has the second best PPG in the league, even with its current skid. If they can get healthy and right, this is a very good team when it plays well.
Next, here are the outcomes for all but (I think) 1 scenario:

Before putting up the regular graphs, here are some Home/Away splits that I think bring some of the recent woes into starker view:

The last of those, I think, shows how the rolling PPG average has taken a hit both home and away for the last few games, and it is easier to see without the prior years all intertwined.

Finally, here are the standard charts:

The Goal Differential is what stands out to me here.  NYC hit +13 GD on June 29 and is at +13 right now twelve games later. Exclude the two Toronto games in those dozen, and NYC is +6 in 10 games, but the TFC games count. The team has not been totally flat for the last 2.5 months — there was a period in which it won 4 of 5 — but the team’s PPG in the last 12 games is only 1.58 compared to 1.83 over the first 18.

This can be a successful season if the team continues to stumble in the next 4 games but does well in the playoffs, but everyone will feel better if the turnaround starts tonight.

2017 NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers – Week 28 September 17

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Failure to win either of the last 2 games created an opening for NYCFC to fall below second place. Here is a measurement of how much.

Assume NYCFC finishes 2-2-1 for 7 more points and 58 total. While it’s not inconceivable they do worse, that’s fairly poor. It is 1.40 PPG. Combined with the last 2 games it would mean a 1.14 PPG over the last 7 games of the season. It also means probably winning both remaining home games (including Hartford) and just one road draw result in the final 3 Away. Here is what the teams chasing NYC would need to do to finish ahead of NYC:

Columbus cannot overtake NYC even if it finishes 4-0-0 if NYC gets 58 points.
Red Bulls need to go 5-0-1-. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and NYC currently is ahead by 8 on GD, which RB potentially makes up with this record. Otherwise RB must finish 6-0-0.
Atlanta needs to go 5-2-0. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and Atlanta currently is 9 ahead on GD.
Chicago needs to finish 3-1-1-. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and Chicago currently is 2 ahead on GD. With a better record over the last 5, it probably keeps that lead, unless its loss is big or NYC has some lopsided wins.

The two points dropped in Colorado would have forced Chicago to win 4 of its last 5, and Atlanta to win 6 of 7, assuming the same 2-2-1 finish by NYC. NYC can make that up those 2 points by winning 3 of its remaining games for a minimum of 60 points which also force Chicago to win 4 of its last 5, and Atlanta to win 6 of 7.

With that in mind, if NYC does each of the following 3 things it is very, very hard for anyone to catch them:
(1) Beat Houston in Hartford.
(2) Win Away against basically-out-of-it Montreal or New England.
(3) Beat Columbus at home. Of course this means second place is likely not clinched until the season ends. That probably requires winning 3 of the next 4 at least. Making one of those wins against the Fire helps, but still needs a few other events to clinch before the last game.

We would rather Chicago not fold and make it easy for Atlanta to catch them which messes up NYC’s playoff matchups.
Atlanta has 2 more games to play than Chicago, and has to win 2 more games to finish ahead of them. If Chicago wins 3, Atlanta must win 5.

As we get close to the season end the nature of the weekly analysis changes, but I know some people like the charts, so here they are without commentary. These are current as of September 17.

NYCFC Week 27 Midweek Update

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NYCFC has the only action midweek, winning against SKC with a very depleted squad. Here are a few updates pending the weekend results for the full slate of games.

Thanks to DC’s 3 game winning streak, it took until the win against SKC to clinch finishing above last place. The magic number for the Highbridge Globetrotters is 3 for Philly and Orlando and 7 for New England. Beyond them, The Wanderers need to also clinch against any two  of Columbus, Montreal and Atlanta with magic numbers of 11, 11, and 17 respectively. Realistically it probably will be late September before a playoff spot is formally locked up.

With 7 games to go for each team, the Walkabouts are 6 points behind Toronto and 6 ahead of Chicago. I’m not going to play what-ifs with Toronto. If they collapse, the Transients can go for it, but until then my focus is on what it takes to stay in second place. Simply put, the lead is substantial at this point. If Chicago has an amazing finish and does not lose again, going 5-0-2, they get 61 points. The Itinerants can beat that with just 4-3-0, which is roughly their current pace, just ever-so-slightly below.

 

NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers – MLS Week 26 September 3

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Abbreviated update. NYCFC had no action this week. There were only 4 games in all of MLS but 2 of them affect the race for second place.

Chicago ended its losing streak beating the Impact in Montreal. That’s actually quite big as Chicago was a poor Away team even while it was sitting on top of the league. Chicago was helped by a VAR red card in minute 52 against the Impact, and the Fire scored 7 minutes later. Hard to tell then if this is a return to form (some of their defenders were back as well) or a dead cat bounce. But now Chicago is just 3 points back from NYCFC. The Blues have a game in hand, which they will play with a depleted roster in a few days.  IF NYCFC fails to win that then the cushion on Chicago is just one game.

The Red Bulls went to Dallas, met another struggling team, and also benefited from an opponent red card, but only gained one point while using up their game in hand.  They now sit 7 points back with 8 games left for both teams. Both have 4 home and 4 away. NYC has 2 more wins so if RB makes up the 7 points there is a good chance they end up tied on wins. NYC currently ahead by 8 on Goal Differential, which is possibly enough to hold up if RB makes up the points. But unless NYC slips considerably, most likely due to multiple injuries already in place, the red team has a stiff climb and did themselves no favors taking advantage of the opportunity last night.

NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers – MLS Week 25 August 28

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This was a pretty good week for NYC, except for the hopes of winning Supporters’ Shield. Many of the teams chasing NYC played twice, and none won twice, which means they are wasting games. At this point time and the passing of games is an ally.  Drawing at RBA was a pretty good result when you consider that all the best scenarios going into this week required that NYC rarely lose and draw 2-3 times. With this game behind us, the toughest games should be Away at Chicago and Montreal.
The big wild card now is the pair of unusual Home games in September.  SKC is up next with the Blues holding an extremely depleted roster, and then hosting Houston in East Hartford. NYC has 3 of the next 4 at home, and it needs to build points because after that comes 3 straight Away. Despite being a strong Away team the difference in PPG is a full point: 2.308 at Home against 1.308 Away.
One other odd schedule note: there are only 24 interconference matchups left in MLS this year, NYC figures in 17% of them, and they are the next 4 games in a row.
Montreal’s failure to beat Toronto in Montreal pretty much kills any remaining rational hope for a Supporters’ Shield this year. NYCFC can very well join the short list of teams to get 60 or more points and not win. In fact it is unlikely even to be close. NYC is 9 points back, and has 8 games left. Toronto has 7 left. If NYC wins its extra game, it still has to make up another 6 points on Toronto just to tie. Toronto, however, has lost only 3 times all year. It is hard to see them losing 3 times in their last 7. But let’s try to develop a plausible (or at least possible) if unlikely scenario. Toronto’s worst stretch of 7 games this year was from June 3 to July 22 when they went 3-2-2 for 11 points. Let’s assume they do slightly worse and finish 3-3-1 for 10 points in their last 7. That gives them 66. The Blues must go 6-1-1 to match that, finish with 66 points, and would have 20 wins to 19 for Toronto which wins the first tiebreaker.  So that’s it. Toronto has to lose as many times in 7 games as it has in 27 to date and NYC has to win 6 of 8, something it managed to do once in its history, last season. In that stretch the Blue Robber Barons lost the 2 games they did not win so going 6-1-1 has never been done by NYC. Together, this means that Toronto has to have its worst 7 games of the season, and NYC has to have its best 8 games ever. It can happen, but at this point NYCFC is playing for second place in the league, realistically.
Back when Toronto and Chicago were tied for 1st, I wrote that “I don’t think either Toronto or Chicago will finish with 68 points. If they do NYC is not catching them.  I do think it will take more than 60 points to win the East (and therefore almost certainly also win the SS). It might even take more than 60 points to finish second.”  It seems to have been a mistake to expect Toronto to falter, but but Chicago might not even make 60.
Before playing at Yankee Stadium, seven games ago, Chicago was tied with Toronto for first, piling up 2.0 PPG, and riding an 11-game unbeaten streak. Since then, including the 2-1 loss against NYC, the Fire is reeling. They have only 1 win in 8 games including 4 straight losses now. Two games ago when their streak was 4 losses in 5 I hesitated to pronounce them in freefall.  The 4 losses were all away, and although they managed 2 wins and 3 draws Away during the 11 game unbeaten streak, they had the worst Away record among league leaders even before hey stumbled.  Prior to the unbeaten streak their Away record was 0-3-2. So their failure to win any Away of 4 games was not surprising, and that they were all losses only slightly unusual.  As I explained at the time I always expect a team to play to its record, and winning only 1 game in a stretch of 1H/4A was not out of line with  Chicago’s record.
Two games later, Chicago’s fall is clear. You can maybe excuse losing to Toronto at home. TFC is on fire, losing only twice in the last 21 games. But now the Fire have lost to Minnesota in Chicago, handing the Loons their first ever road win and putting Minnesota’s PPG up to 1.0, and we have undeniable evidence that they are not as good as the 2.0 PPG made them seem through 19 games.
The best case you can make now for a Chicago revival is their streakiness.They started at 1.38 PPG through 8 games, then earned 2.46 through the next 11, and sit at 0.43 in the last 7. Schweinstager was a catalyst but not enough to explain singlehandedly the switch that marked the break between their first 2 streaks, and another inexplicable change of fortune could be coming.  We could be shocked by another switch to winning again, or a least doing better than losing nearly every game. Their remaining schedule is a rough balance of Home and Away and Easy/Tough opponents. Nikolic had chances against Minnesota before Minnesota scored and just couldn’t finish. A return to form from him could right their course, even if they don’t reach their previous level. Without that and they probably limp into the playoffs.
That in mind, here’s an update on the teams chasing NYC.
  • Montreal: Game in hand, 11 points back, H2H in Montreal. The Impact can beat us at home, and win their extra game, and still will be 5 points behind us.
  • Dallas FC: 1 in hand, 11 points back. They can the extra game and still will be 8 points trailing.
  • Red Bulls: 1 in hand, 8 points back: If they win their extra game, which is hardly a given as it is Away, they still will be 5 points behind us.
  • Atlanta: 2 in hand, 11 points back, 8H 2A remaining. They can win both extra games and still will be 5 points back. Downside for NYC: this still leaves them with a favorable 6H 2A in remaining 8 games. If on top of winning all their extra games they also win two extra home game, and all else being equal, they jump ahead of us. That’s a lot going right for them, however.
  • Seattle: 5 points back, One fewer game remaining: 4H 3A. Very tough path to catch NYC.
  • SKC: 7 points back, Game in hand, 4H 5A:  If they win the extra game (at home) they are still 4 back. Also substantially behind on first tie-breaker  (Wins).
  • Chicago: 6 points back, 4H 4A. No structural schedule advantage.  To overtake NYC they have to simply outplayed NYC by 6+ points. If they tie on points, they probably make up the win deficit and have a shot at the GD, where they currently sit 2 back, but if they make up the 6 points that likely comes with the points.
I think the first 2, Montreal and Dallas, are no longer a concern. If they catch NYC it means NYC has a major slump and multiple teams ahead of them also overtake the Blue Notes.*  In fact, with the few remaining games NYC’s advantage over all these teams is almost — not quite but almost — as big as the advantage Tronto holds over NYC.  The Blues trail TFC by 9 points with a game in hand.  The closest teams to NYC are
  • five points back with a game in deficit (Seattle) or 2 games in deficit (Columbus)
  • six back and even on games (Chicago) or two games in deficit (Portland)
  • seven to nine back and a game in hand (SKC, RB, and Vancouver)
  • 11 back and 2 games in hand (Atlanta)
It is hard to judge with the uneven schedule but Chicago is probably closest. SKC can jump over Chicago if they win their extra game.  Everyone else is probably further back from NYC than NYC is from Toronto. Here’s another way to look at it. Assume NYC slumps, and plays well below its level to date, finishing 3-3-2 (1.375 PPG) and gets 58 points. To meet that and maybe win a tiebreaker:
  • Chicago has to go 5-1-2, 2.22 PPG
  • SKC has to go 5-1-3, 2.00 PPG
  • RB has to go 6-2-1, 2.11 PPG
  • Seattle has to go 5-1-1, 2.29 PPG
  • Vancouver has to go 6-1-2, 2.22 PPG
  • Atlanta has to go 6-0-4 or 7-2-1, 2.20 PPG
  • Columbus has to go 5-0-1, 2.67 PPG
Note: 3-2-2 would match NYC’s worst 8 games of the season, from April 23 to May 31, a stretch that included only 3 Home games and featured a 4-game road trip, including the Dallas->RSL->Orlando week.
* Besides all but settling the race for first place, Montreal’s failure to beat Toronto in Montreal also puts the Impact in a tough spot to make the playoffs. They are tied with Atlanta but AU has one extra game to play, and all those home games.   Montreal gets to play Toronto twice more in Toronto.Montreal has 3 games in hand on Columbus but is 6 points behind.  

NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers – MLS Week 24 August 21

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One-quarter of the season is left. NYC is 4 points back of league-leading Toronto, and 5 ahead of third-place Chicago.

  • Many teams behind Chicago have games in hand, and even Chicago has a schedule advantage of one extra home game. So I checked to see what would happen if every team within generous reach of NYC took full advantage of any schedule advantages it has. I checked West teams as well for potential home field in a Cup final match. This exercise ignores strength of schedule and just looks at extra games or extra home games.
    • Montreal: Game in hand, 10 points back, H2H in Montreal. The Impact can beat us at home, and win their extra game, and still will be 4 points behind us.
    • Dallas FC: 2 in hand, 11 points back. They can win both extra games and still will be 5 points trailing.
    • Red Bulls: 1 in hand, 8 points back, H2H in NJ: They can beat us at home, and win their extra game, and still will be 2 points behind us.
    • Atlanta: 3 in hand, 11 points back, 8H 4A remaining. They can win all 3 extra games and still will be 2 points back. Downside for NYC: this still leaves them with a favorable 5H 4A in remaining 9 games. If on top of winning all their extra games they also win an extra home game, and all else being equal, they jump ahead of us. That’s a lot going right for them, however.
    • Seattle: 6 points back, 5H 4A: taking advantage of the modestly better H/A schedule by winning the additional home game leaves them 3 points back. Also, even if they make up the 6-point deficit by winning 2 extra games NYC would have first tiebreaker with one more Win.
    • SKC: 6 points back, 4H 5A: No clear schedule advantage. They do play NYC in NYC which is an opportunity but not an advantage. Even if they make up 6-point deficit by winning 2 extra games NYC would have first tiebreaker with two more Wins.
    • Chicago: 5 points back, 5H 4A. They can win their extra home game and be 2 behind.

The summary is that only Atlanta has enough extra games and home games baked into their schedule to let them jump over NYC just by seizing those advantages.

  • A 3-game win streak and 4 of 5 has this table looking a bit better to reach the top spots. Winning 5 more games is very doable and that all leads to 60+ points. Even winning 4 more gets to 60 with a couple of draws.

Also, I ran the number adding NYC’s Home PPG times 4 games + the Away PPG times 5 and it comes to 62 points.

  • NYCFC is 8 points ahead of 2016 through 25 games. Last year the club reached 46 points at games 30-31, jumping from 45 points to 48 with only 3 games to go.

A final note on the graphs. The PPG line for 2016 stabilized around game 19. After that it just squiggled up and down without moving much. Part of that is just that it gets harder to move the needle the deeper you go into the season, but NYC last year also did not have a winning or winless streak longer than 2 games after that point. You can see this year the line has diverged more later based on the current 3 straight wins and 4 of 5.

NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers – MLS Week 23 August 14

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There’s one game left to finish this week due to the rain delay in DC, but neither team (DC and RSL) are of much interest so I’m putting this up now.
  • Hello Second Place. It’s been a while since we’ve seen you. I’m exactly not sure when, but it was probably the end of 2016. I don’t think we started strong enough to have been in second even by accident near the start of the season.
  • In fairness, NYC and Chicago are as tied as 2 teams can be when they have not played the game amount of games. I suppose NYC and Chicago could have the same number of points, but then the Fire would have a clear PPG advantage with the game in hand. As it stands, NYC is up 2 points, and 0.01 ahead on PPG. Chicago has a game in hand, and the one game remaining between the 2 teams is in Chicago.  
  • Both teams control their destiny. If NYC wins out, including the game in Chicago, the Fire cannot catch them. If Chicago wins out, NYC cannot catch them.
  • Meanwhile, Toronto just keep chugging along.  Four games ago, Toronto and the Fire both had 3 losses, by far the lowest in the league.  Since then the Fire have lost 3 of 4 while Toronto is still sitting on 3 for the year. They lost once in their first 14 games. Then lost 2 of 4. And since have gone 6 games without a loss.  They don’t win more than anyone. They are tied with NYC in wins. Chicago and RB are each one win behind with a game in hand. But TFC has only 3 losses and the next lowest (Chicago) has double that. When Toronto does not win it has 3 losses against 8 draws while NYC has 7 losses against 4 draws. Toronto had a weak start to the season, which easy t forget at the point. They only won 1 of their first 6 games. But they also only lost once.  Four draws in the first six — two of those at home —  was a poor start. But those four draws also represent the difference between 1st and 2nd place right now.
  • Last year NYC won 6 road games and had the most Away wins and points in the league. The fifth road win came after 8 games, including a stretch of 4 wins out of 5. 2016 NYC only won 2 of the last 7 Away games. This year it took 12 games to reach 5 wins, but they have come more regularly. With 6 left, it is reasonable to hope for 3 more wins.  2 more is probably the most likely, but 3 is a good hope, with the weakest opponents being Colorado, Montreal and New England (which is not to concede RB and Chicago, either of which would be even more valuable. But 3 more road wins makes 7 more wins very possible. Even 8 becomes thinkable with 3 Away wins. OTOH, getting just 1 more Away win caps the team at 5 or 6 more wins, which is still on track for the neighborhood of 60 points, but probably comfortably far from First Place and maybe even from Second.
  • NYC 2017 is now 6 points ahead of NYC 2016.
  • A few more schedule notes. The West is all askew right now with Dallas in 4th place despite having the highest PPG. At the same time their PPG puts them tied for Fifth Place in the East. Atlanta had one game in hand going into this week. They were inactive this week, and will be again next week due to their stadium delay, leaving them will 3 games in hand.  But a win at home by NYC next week creates an 11-point gap. Atlanta has a tough gap to make up even with all their home games, and their 8 games in 24 days should tire them out. NYC can be in a similar position with RB next week, but that requires 2 results in the coming week, and I try not to count on getting help. But it would be nice if after next week we know the game in Harrison is important only for pride, a season sweep, and the all-time record, while the only team that can threaten NYC from behind — barring  a loss of form — is Chicago.