City Blues By The Numbers

You are here: Home / Archives for 2016 NYCFC Assorted

NYCFC 2016 | 2015 Comparison

by 2 Comments

With 4 games to go I decided to pull out the NYCFC 2015 vs. 2016 charts again, and I decided to add one new chart.

screen-shot-2016-09-18-at-9-08-58-am

I’ve posted the top 2 charts a few times before. They each have flaws, but together I think they provide enough information to draw some conclusions.  The problem of the first chart is that the lines only go up or stay flat. Over the course of a season every team will seem to progress, with the differences being a matter of scale and speed. The issue with the second chart is that every new game has a lesser effect on the chart than the games before it did (when they were each the latest game). After game 3 each game including the latest is worth 33.3% of the total. After game 30 each game is worth 3.3%. So you will usually see progressions like the ones above where there are some big moves early then   the lines flatten out unless there are big streaks like winning or losing 4 out of 5 or so.

Despite those limitations, you can tell that NYCFC’s 2 seasons started out the same, with an extended slump, but that they broke out of it sooner in 2016. You can also tell that in 2016 NYCFC has had 2 stretches of above-average play that have largely driven most of its success this season. You can also see that the 2015 team had one stretch from games 14-18 that was responsible for the best part of that year.

But the new chart really shows all this better. I split the season into mostly 4 game blocks. Because 34 is divisible only by 17 and 2, it’s impossible to do that exactly so the split is theee 4-game blocks, followed by a 5-game set. That’s 17 games and half the season, so repeat it to round it out. We are through 7 of the 8 blocks, and this chart makes everything I described above even more clear.  Both the 2015 and 2016 teams started poorly. 2016 pulled out sooner and more sharply. 2015 NYCFC had one stellar stretch at the end of the first half of the season followed by a long, painful decline, while  the 2016 team had 2 very good blocks in which it averaged more than 2 PPG. Since then NYCFC 2016 has been muddling through the remainder of the season at about its average rate of success.  The last block is five games and will probably determine whether the team is viewed as limping to the playoffs or going in hot.

 

NYCFC Has Not Conceded 23 Set Piece Goals

by Leave a Comment

  1. I Think The 23 Set piece Goals in 26 Home Games Stat Is Very Wrong

    HRB has this stat and doesn’t provide a source, and but the RSL announcers mentioned the 23 set-piece concessions at home stat (without adding how many games) during the condensed match. They said it right after the Burrito goal off a free kick. So they are probably the original source for this.
    I went back and reviewed the summary and sometimes highlights of every game.
    I count 12 set-pieces conceded last year, with 6 at home. This counts the SKC throw-in as a set-piece.
    I count 8 this year, all at home. That adds up to 20 total, and 14 at home. If you want to be strict and exclude the throw-in it is 19 and 13.
    It’s possible I missed one, or maybe even 2-3, but there’s no way I missed 9 home set-piece concessions. Plus I think I’m right.
    We have in fact played 26 home games, so the stat has that going for it.
    Here they are with the game number, date, H/A, Type, scorer, and minute
    2015
    1 3/8/2015 Orlando Away Free Kick kaka 91
    4 3/28/2015 SKC Home throw-in Opara 13
    11 5/15/2015 Chicago Home free kick Cocis header 14
    13 5/30/2015 Houston Home corner kick Bruin header 16
    14 6/6/2015 Philadelphia Away corner kick Sapong 46
    17 6/28/2015 NJRB Home free kick Duvall 52
    Home free kick Miazga 73
    26 8/23/2015 Galaxy Away free kick (quick kick) Zardes 36
    28 9/12/2015 Dallas Away corner kick Michel 45+
    31 9/26/2015 Vancouver Away corner kick Amarikwa 72
    32 10/2/2015 DC Away free kick Saborio 90+
    34 10/25/2015 New England Home corner kick Rowe 55
    2016
    2 3/13/2016 Toronto Home free kick Perquis 45+
    4 3/26/2016 New England Home free kick Tierney 38
    8 4/27/2016 Montreal Home free kick Oduro 90
    13 5/21/2016 NJRB Home corner McCarty 3
    Home corner McCarty 51
    Home free kick Veron 83
    Home corner Baah 89
    15 6/2/2016 RSL Home free kick Burrito 67

    That’s still terrible but I guess qualifies as slightly positive news. I also note that both times we conceded more than once in a game has been to our favorite local energy drink team.
    Also, 6 of them were at 45 to 45+ or 90 to 90+. That’s killer.

    UPDATE: It probably is people counting PKs to make up the difference, but if so that’s a case of letting definitions confuse things. Nobody cares how well a team “defends” penalty kicks. Nobody defends penalty kicks well, and it’s a fundamentally different animal than corners and free kicks, even though they all start with a dead ball.

 

NYCFC’s Home Record Problem May 31, 2016

by Leave a Comment

  1. NYCFC’s  problem is that the Mean Number of Wins in Home Games for playoff teams is double our current rate. To do that over the remaining games means winning 6 of the remaining 9 home games. I find assuming that to be tough, so we’re left guessing how close we get to that and how far the Away record drops. Here is a scenario that works:
    Home 5-3-1 16 Pts 1.78 PPG
    Away 4-4-3 15 Pts 1.36 PPG

    Those 31 points added to the current 18 gets us to 49. One way or another you have to figure we need to win at least 9 of our remaining 20 games. It could require more.
    Think of that as 4.5 wins per 10 games.
    Last year we earned 2.94 Wins per 10 games.
    Last year in the last 21 games after the winless streak we managed 4.28 Wins per 10 games.
    This year we are sitting at 2.86 Wins per 10 games.

    Basically to hit the playoffs we likely need to do a bit better than we did after the winless streak last year. It’s not out of reach. But it’s also something we’ve never done. Both are true, which is one of the reasons it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

 

Yet More Home/Away Thoughts May 30, 2016

by Leave a Comment

  1. Last year NYCFC was 17th in the league-wide Supporters Shield race, but 19th in points won at home.
    This year NYCFC is currently 10th for Supporters Shield, and 20th in home record (TFC has fewer points but better PPG and many fewer GP).

    It’s worth mentioning that we’re first in Away record also, so 10th overall is right where we should be I suppose.

 

I Don’t Think NYCFC Makes The Playoffs – May 29, 2016

by Leave a Comment

  1. I don’t think we’re making the playoffs. I’m ready to say that at the end of May, and even though we’re in 4th place.
    I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my position.

    Currently, bad teams in MLS do reasonably well at home. Since we have been in the league, only 2 teams have a PPG at home below 1.5. Chicago is 1.42 and NYCFC is 1.20. Orlando is 1.54, and everyone else is at 1.6 and above. Playoff teams average 2.0.

    You go back a few years and you see some really spectacularly bad Home teams. Toronto and Chivas were just horrible a few years ago. We’re not at that level, but right now we are the worst.

    Going back at least 10 years, no team has made the MLS playoffs without a winning record at home. But we’re only 1 game under, so flipping that won’t be hard, right? To get a winning record at home, we must go
    6-4-0
    6-3-1
    5-3-2
    Or get even fewer losses, maybe with more ties. We still have to play at home against
    RSL, PHI, RB, COL, LAG, DAL

    Plus 4 teams easier to beat but if we lose to just 1 of the 4 we really need to rack up wins against the better 6. To date, the longest we have ever gone maintaining a record 2 games above .500 at home is a 4 games stretch last August-September . Maybe we don’t lose more than 3 or 4 home games, or maybe we become the first team to make the playoffs without a winning home record. Any of these can happen. But recognize that it’s either doing far, far better than we have ever done at home against really tough opponents, or making history without a winning home record.

    So maybe we make it to one game over 50% at home. In the last 5 years of a 34 game season only one team, SKC in 2014, has made the playoffs with a winning differential of merely +1 at home. Every other playoff team has had at least 3 more wins than losses at home. 2014 SKC made the playoffs by having 8 road wins. In the last 5 years only 5 teams have managed 8 or more road wins. It’s doable, but it is not a mundane accomplishment.

    If we make the playoffs we either
    1. have an extremely dramatic change in our H/A record to date, or
    2. Make MLS history. I’m all for making history, if that’s what it takes, but I won’t minimize it now and certainly not if the team pulls it off.

    I still hope we win our next 3 at home, and we’re 2 games over just like that. Even then it’s a tough road to maintain it. And it has to start immediately.

     

     

     

Grand Unified theory of NYCFC’s Struggles in 2016 through May

by Leave a Comment

  1. Here’s the Grand Unified Theory of Everything, which I’m not sure if I believe it or not. I’m definitely interested in opinions and feedback.

    1. Last year we scored 32 Home goals and 16 Away. This year, with an extra home game so far, we have only 7 Home goals and 11 Away.
    2. We were shutout only twice all last year at home. This year it has happened 3 times in 7 games.
    3. Theory: This could be due to our playing from the back on a small field. At home, being patient slow and from the back we are especially susceptible to teams who either park the bus or press. A small field makes both of these easier to play.
    4. Our 14 wins over 2 seasons include 10 by one goal and 4 by two goals.
    5. This means we almost never have room for error and are always susceptible to having a win become a tie, or a tie become a loss, based on one fluky, weird, random, goal.
    6. We are the kings of conceding stupid, fluky goals, and set piece goals.
    7. This is especially true at home.
    8. Theory: Small fields favors offense on set pieces and when a team wins the ball on a high press (because it’s likely that much closer to goal). Small field hurts offense in regular open play, especially with slow buildup.
    9. Overall, the small field takes our weaknesses and faults and makes them worse. Combine (1) the fact that we never blow anyone away, and (2) are scoring much less at home this year which amplifies (1), with (3) our tendency to concede on weird plays and set pieces and you have who we are right now.

    Notes on the above:
    1. and 2. These could also be just a small sample and random chance.
    3. A small field would probably help all defensive strategies and hurt all offense. This is a game of space. Total Football means making the field bigger when you have the ball and smaller when you don’t. But our offense is more focused than ever on waiting for holes to open. There are fewer holes on a small field.
    4. I also do not know if this ratio is unusual. Most games probably have goal differentials of 0, 1 or 2. But we have none greater than 2 (on the winning side) and the ratio of 1 and 2 seems heavy towards 1 for us. Regardless of whether it is normal or unusual, we have to deal with it.
    6. I have to evidence of this but it seems to be a truth universally acknowledged.
    7. I also can’t say this is true with certainty, but this year we have had:
    Toronto – Free kick conceded from wide of the box
    Orlando – Saunders tap into Larins face
    New England – Free kick deflection off Mendoza
    Chicago – free kick conceded – correctly ruled offsides but we were still lucky to get that called
    Montreal – Free kick conceded from wide of the box
    Vancouver – goal conceded under pressure while playing from the back
    Red Bull Wedding – 4 corners and 1 free kick
    That’s at least one every home game.

 

MLS Writers On NYCFC’s Home Woes

by Leave a Comment

  1. Has NYCFC’s home form put their playoff hopes in jeopardy?

    More concerns about NYCFC’s Home record at MLSoccer.com.

    “Of the 52 teams to make the playoffs since MLS moved to a 34-game schedule in 2011, only two have won fewer than seven home games. Those teams were the 2011 Colorado Rapids and Sporting Kansas City in 2014.
    Those teams each finished with six wins at home, meaning NYCFC would have to win half of their home games the rest of the season to match them, which may be difficult with Real Salt Lake (6/2), Colorado (7/30), LA (8/20) and Dallas (9/17) still set to visit. Not to mention, another round looms with the Red Bulls (7/3).”

    There’s even more. I think they overstate what we have to do, because they ignore our 3 wins in only 6 away games so far. But to be sure, the tension between our position in the standings and our home record is real and will not sustain itself. RTWT as the hip bloggers used to say in 2003.

 

Skating at the Margins of Home/Away History – NYCFC May 26, 2016

by Leave a Comment

Currently, our home PPG is 1.0 and Away is 1.67. If we do that to the end of the season we get 45 points. we would also have a season for the ages, opposite of all home away trends by an absurd amount. So I agree we will revert to the mean.
If we revert to the mean we do better. Last year playoff teams earned 2.04 PPG at home and 1.06 at home.
If we do that from this point we get 49 points.

If you’re not concerned that we might be more likely to drop our Away performance towards average than to double our home PPG, I admire your sunny disposition. I still think we can do it, but we’ll be skating at the margins of history if we do.