Archives for September 2017

Dropping in this quick update before the games tonight change everything. On this first chart I noticed that NYC’s PPG is still ahead of Atlanta’s even though they control their destiny. This isn’t a secret. The PPG is right on the MLS Standings page. But I think many NYCFC fans lost sight of it with all the bad news. Another reminder, Atlanta only controls its own destiny if they win out, which would be 5 in a row on top of the 2-game streak they are riding. I expect they will drop points. The issue is will NYCFC drop few enough to stay ahead.

Another reminder is NYC also still has the second best PPG in the league, even with its current skid. If they can get healthy and right, this is a very good team when it plays well.
Next, here are the outcomes for all but (I think) 1 scenario:

Before putting up the regular graphs, here are some Home/Away splits that I think bring some of the recent woes into starker view:

The last of those, I think, shows how the rolling PPG average has taken a hit both home and away for the last few games, and it is easier to see without the prior years all intertwined.

Finally, here are the standard charts:

The Goal Differential is what stands out to me here.  NYC hit +13 GD on June 29 and is at +13 right now twelve games later. Exclude the two Toronto games in those dozen, and NYC is +6 in 10 games, but the TFC games count. The team has not been totally flat for the last 2.5 months — there was a period in which it won 4 of 5 — but the team’s PPG in the last 12 games is only 1.58 compared to 1.83 over the first 18.

This can be a successful season if the team continues to stumble in the next 4 games but does well in the playoffs, but everyone will feel better if the turnaround starts tonight.

Failure to win either of the last 2 games created an opening for NYCFC to fall below second place. Here is a measurement of how much.

Assume NYCFC finishes 2-2-1 for 7 more points and 58 total. While it’s not inconceivable they do worse, that’s fairly poor. It is 1.40 PPG. Combined with the last 2 games it would mean a 1.14 PPG over the last 7 games of the season. It also means probably winning both remaining home games (including Hartford) and just one road draw result in the final 3 Away. Here is what the teams chasing NYC would need to do to finish ahead of NYC:

Columbus cannot overtake NYC even if it finishes 4-0-0 if NYC gets 58 points.
Red Bulls need to go 5-0-1-. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and NYC currently is ahead by 8 on GD, which RB potentially makes up with this record. Otherwise RB must finish 6-0-0.
Atlanta needs to go 5-2-0. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and Atlanta currently is 9 ahead on GD.
Chicago needs to finish 3-1-1-. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and Chicago currently is 2 ahead on GD. With a better record over the last 5, it probably keeps that lead, unless its loss is big or NYC has some lopsided wins.

The two points dropped in Colorado would have forced Chicago to win 4 of its last 5, and Atlanta to win 6 of 7, assuming the same 2-2-1 finish by NYC. NYC can make that up those 2 points by winning 3 of its remaining games for a minimum of 60 points which also force Chicago to win 4 of its last 5, and Atlanta to win 6 of 7.

With that in mind, if NYC does each of the following 3 things it is very, very hard for anyone to catch them:
(1) Beat Houston in Hartford.
(2) Win Away against basically-out-of-it Montreal or New England.
(3) Beat Columbus at home. Of course this means second place is likely not clinched until the season ends. That probably requires winning 3 of the next 4 at least. Making one of those wins against the Fire helps, but still needs a few other events to clinch before the last game.

We would rather Chicago not fold and make it easy for Atlanta to catch them which messes up NYC’s playoff matchups.
Atlanta has 2 more games to play than Chicago, and has to win 2 more games to finish ahead of them. If Chicago wins 3, Atlanta must win 5.

As we get close to the season end the nature of the weekly analysis changes, but I know some people like the charts, so here they are without commentary. These are current as of September 17.

Abbreviated update. NYCFC had no action this week. There were only 4 games in all of MLS but 2 of them affect the race for second place.

Chicago ended its losing streak beating the Impact in Montreal. That’s actually quite big as Chicago was a poor Away team even while it was sitting on top of the league. Chicago was helped by a VAR red card in minute 52 against the Impact, and the Fire scored 7 minutes later. Hard to tell then if this is a return to form (some of their defenders were back as well) or a dead cat bounce. But now Chicago is just 3 points back from NYCFC. The Blues have a game in hand, which they will play with a depleted roster in a few days.  IF NYCFC fails to win that then the cushion on Chicago is just one game.

The Red Bulls went to Dallas, met another struggling team, and also benefited from an opponent red card, but only gained one point while using up their game in hand.  They now sit 7 points back with 8 games left for both teams. Both have 4 home and 4 away. NYC has 2 more wins so if RB makes up the 7 points there is a good chance they end up tied on wins. NYC currently ahead by 8 on Goal Differential, which is possibly enough to hold up if RB makes up the points. But unless NYC slips considerably, most likely due to multiple injuries already in place, the red team has a stiff climb and did themselves no favors taking advantage of the opportunity last night.