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NYCFC 2017 Weekly Update By The Numbers – MLS Week 17 June 26

June 26, 2017 by Mark Leave a Comment

Before I started drafting this update I checked what I said at the halfway point last year.
Here is what I discovered. NYC had 24 points after 17 games last year, which meant they earned 30 in the second half. Which further means the team has now put together two consecutive 30-point half seasons. They did this with only 15 Home games and 19 Away. That’s a very impressive season-length stretch, even if it is spread over two seasons.
But oddly, despite an increase of 0.35 PPG which translates to 6 more points than this time last year, the team is in a less favorable spot due to the torrid paces of both Toronto and Chicago. Halfway through last season NYC only looked up at Philadelphia. Toronto was below the playoff line, but had games in hand and most of them at home, which led me to predict they would make a run. Of the Red Bulls at this point last year, I noted they could not win at home and so seemed not so much a threat except they always beat us. Toronto made its run, but so did RB, who lost game 18 then never lost again in the 2016 regular season.
If you combine TFC’s second half of 2016 with their first half this year it adds up to 65 points, but was done with 19H and 15A.
Chicago’s notable achievement is that in 2017 they won more points in 17 games (34) than they did in the full season of 34 games last year (31).

You can see there is now real separation between the top 3 in the East and the rest of the conference. SKC and Dallas are within range but NYC would be comfortably atop the West while not even getting a bye in the East. The playoff projection line for both conferences is probably within margin of error, but everything else skews solidly East.

I dropped a line or two on the bottom of this table and added one between 68 and 63 near the top. Barring a collapse, the issue is how far above 50 does NYC finish, and can they break through to the top 2 spots. Both TFC and Chicago built their record this year by not losing at home. It seems unlikely they will both hold that record through the full season, but undefeated home records are not unknown in MLS. Since going to the 34 game season in 2011, there have been 3 home-undefeated teams in 6 years, including Colorado last year. Having 1 or 2 teams finish that way in 2017 would be unusual, but not ridiculous to imagine.

NYCFC finally has a 3-game winning streak in 2017, but still less streaky than the past. The other notable item in this week’s graphs is that the Goal Differential chart had to expand its range. The old ones went to 10, but NYC just went to 11, and so the graph had to expand to 15:

Filed Under: 2017 Weekly Updates NYCFC

2017 MLS Interconference Play – Week 17 June 26

June 26, 2017 by Mark Leave a Comment

Week 17 – 2 Games
East Record 1-0-1
At Home 1-0-0
On Road 0-0-1
Goal Differential +1
East Points 4
West Points 1

Season To Date
East Record 26-17-19
At Home 21-3-7 (31)
On Road 5-14-12 (31)
Goal Differential +23
East Points 97
West Points 70

This week was a replay of the prior 2 combined, with 2 games, one hosted by each conference, and the East won at Home and tied Away. We’ve gone just past the halfway mark for the season as well. There are 122 interconference games total and they have played 62, with 60 to go.

Filed Under: Interconference Play 2017

NYCFC 2017 Weekly Update By The Numbers – MLS Week 16 June 19

June 19, 2017 by Mark Leave a Comment

There is not one spot in these standings where the West is ahead of, or even with, the East. NYC is third in the East and third overall.
NYC is closer to the two teams behind them that to the 2 teams ahead. In fact, NYC is closer to Atlanta than Toronto, albeit barely, on PPG. None of which means a drop is more likely than a climb, but 1-2 bad results can do more harm than 1-2 good results can do good. NYC has not yet played Toronto or Chicago and has 2 games left against each. A win and a tie just draws NYC even with Chicago on points and would eave them still one point behind Toronto. FYI,
Chicago and TFC have played once in Toronto with Toronto winning 3-1. One game remaining in Chicago, but Chicago will be on short rest playing in Montreal 3 days earlier while Toronto will be on a full week of rest.
NB: The Games Played column is wrong. I’ll try to fix soon.

Toronto and Chicago are also the only two teams ahead of NYC in Goal Differential.

NYC’s defense is slipping. They are down to 7th in Goals Against (in a 3-way tie) after spending much of the early season in the top 5. They have only one clean sheet in the last 10 games. They managed 2 in the first 6. Still, they have given up 11 fewer goals than at this point last year. If you want to minimize the effect of the Red Bull Wedding last year by throwing out the worst GA game each year, the difference is still a healthy 7 goal improvement.

NYC have climbed to 1 game over even on wins and losses in MLS regular season play, which ignores the 0-5-0 record in playoffs and US Open Cup play.

NYC is just short of the halfway mark through the season with an even number of Home and Away games (although it looks like the second half schedule is harder based on opponent quality). Here is the sample finishes with results:

The bottom 3 rungs are arguably irrelevant at this point and would represent a massive collapse.

NYC is the opposite of streaky this year. On that third chart showing the rolling 5-game PPG, 2017 is living inside both extreme highs and lows for both 2016 and 2015.

  • Most consecutive wins 2.
  • Most consecutive losses 1.
  • Consecutive unbeaten 3.
  • Consecutive winless 2.

NYC has won 3 games this year by a 2-1 score. All were at home, and all came after falling behind. This includes the most recent 2 games overall. During the last 3 consecutive games at home (ignoring the US Open cup away game) the only game tin which NYC never trailed is the only one it didn’t win.
NYC is 4-4 in 1-goal games. That represents 50% of their wins but fully 80% of their losses. They have a ways to go before one could say they make efficient use of goals (although this is probably random more than anything else IMO).

Filed Under: 2016 Weekly Updates NYCFC

2017 MLS Interconference Play – Weeks 15-16 June 19, 2 Games

June 19, 2017 by Mark Leave a Comment

Weeks 15-16 – 2 Games Combined
East Record 1-0-1
At Home 1-0-0
On Road 0-0-1
Goal Differential +1
East Points 4
West Points 1

Season To Date
East Record 25-17-18
At Home 20-3-7 (30)
On Road 5-14-11 (30)
Goal Differential +21
East Points 93
West Points 69

There was one game last week and just one again this week. The East won at home (this week) and tied on the road (last week). NYC won the home game making its record against the West 2-1-1- for 1.75 PPG, slightly above its 1.67 PPG against the East. NYC has played 2H/2A against the West and 6H/6A against the East

Filed Under: Interconference Play 2017

NYCFC 2017 Weekly Update By The Numbers – MLS Week 14 June 6

June 6, 2017 by Mark 2 Comments

First weekly update post of the year went up 4 weeks ago after 9 games, and just before (what NYC fans hope) will be the toughest stretch of schedule this season. At that point NYC had 16 points in 9 games. Based on PPG it was he high point of the season at 1.78. What followed was a stretch of 6 games in 21 days, with the first 4 on the road. The team managed 4 points in the 4 Away games followed by another 4 points in the 2 Home games, going 2-2-2 for 8 points out of 18 (1.33 PPG). Ignoring the lack of rest and missing squad pieces, both of those qualify as barely acceptable borderline results. But allowing for the squad difficulties, most notably the absence of Yangel Herrera for all 6 of these games, and the results become more acceptable. Other notable absences include Matarrita, who only came on as a late sub in the last game and Pirlo, who played 90 minutes total out of 540 due to a mysterious knee injury. There were other, briefer absences during the stretch, including Alexander Ring missing a game due to yellow card accumulation.

Due to these absences, NYC had to go deep into its roster. Here is a list of the non-goalkeepers making $75k base salary or less and their minutes during this stretch compared to the full 15 games:

Base Salary – Minutes Last 6 – Total Minutes
Awuah 53k —  0 — 1
Lopez 75k — 265 — 265
Okoli 52k — 105 — 210
Stertzer 65k — 22 — 39
Sweat 65k — 365 — 625
White 65k – 439 — 1066

What stands out to me is that Lopez, Okoli, Stertzer and Sweat together played 757 of their combined 1139 minutes in 2017 during these 6 games. That’s 66% of their minutes in 40% of the games. To be fair Lopez was hurt previously but the other 3 each individually had 50% or more of their minutes in just those 6 games. That’s a lot of sub minutes from the very bottom of the team’s roster. I excluded White because he’s mostly a starter anyway, and could be considered more of a bargain player rather than just cap filler, and he played 41% of his minutes in the 6 games, which is pretty much proportional.

Also notable, Camargo (base salary $99k) played 159 of 176 minutes for 90% of his total.
RJ Allen 174/252 69%.
McNamara 280/453 60%

On to charts and graphs.  First, PPG projections:

NYC dropped 6 projected points over this tough stretch.They were sitting at 60.52 after 9 games.

Sample records and possible results:

Finally, the comparative graphs. I think the note here is that after 15 games last year the team had 6 fewer points, and it was the low point of the season. But, they also won the next 4 so the 2017 squad needs to get 7 or more in the next 4 to stay ahead of last year’s pace. At some point soon — probably in 2018 in fact — it will become unreasonable to expect the team to improve every year.But it still seems a fair expectation this season

Filed Under: 2017 Weekly Updates NYCFC

2017 MLS Interconference Play – Week 14 June 6

June 6, 2017 by Mark Leave a Comment

Week 14 – 4 Games
East Record 1-2-1
At Home 1-0-1
On Road 0-2-0
Goal Differential +0
East Points 4
West Points 7

Season To Date
East Record 24-17-17
At Home 19-3-7 (29)
On Road 5-14-10 (29)
Goal Differential +21
East Points 89
West Points 68

West clawed back a tiny, tiny bit. Things will be slow for a bit on this front as there are only 4 interconference games in the next 3 weeks.

Filed Under: Interconference Play 2017

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