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A Story About NYCFC History, My Birthday, and How I Might Be Responsible for the Pandemic

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I was not much of a soccer fan until 2014.

I flirted with the Cosmos phenomenon in the late 1970s, and intermittently watched World Cups every 4 years, but basically had a typical US disinterest in the sport. But then something clicked during the 2014 World Cup. When it ended I was hungry for more, but I have never been able to care much about foreign leagues, despite the high quality play. I’ve tried and even now, as much as I love the sport, I cannot care about La Liga, or the EPL, or Bundesliga or even Champions League.

In 2014 my focus was even more on local options. Where could I go watch some live games? I knew so little about Major League Soccer.  I had a slight awareness that the local team for New York played in New Jersey, and maybe were once called the MetroStars but not any more? Researching that led me to discover that the MetroStars had indeed become the Red Bulls, which was both a team name as well as a sponsor and owner. But, as it happened, I also learned that NYCFC was going to begin play in 2015 at Yankee Stadium, pending a new stadium of their own.

Which is , of course, its own sad unending story, but that’s not this story. Anyway, I was very taken with the idea of getting in on the start of a new team, and put down a deposit on season tickets, not sure if I would stay a ticket holder for more than a year or two. As it happened my daughters enjoyed coming to games, and I made some friends via the team. I became very active in a forum community & started this  website to analyze each season’s playoff push week to week.

Plus, the team has an odd habit of playing, and winning, on my birthday.

It began that first year, when they beat Orlando 5-3. Playing on my birthday itself was not remarkable. It was a Sunday, and ignoring days of the week any given date has an even 1/7 chance. More fine-tuned, the bulk of games take place on Saturday or Sunday.  But winning that year was rare in itself, when the team won just 10 of 34 games. They then did not play again on my birthday until 2018, skipping 2 years. But in 2018 they played and beat Orlando City SC  again on a Thursday night, and beat  Sporting KC on a Friday night in 2019. That’s 3 games, all wins, on my birthday in 5 years.

Given that MLS teams play on average one game per week during the season, and the vast bulk of those are on Saturday or Sunday, having three NYCFC games on the same date, in 5 years, and only one of those on a Saturday or Sunday was against the odds, to be sure. When the time came for MLS to announce its 2020 schedule I was cautiously optimistic of another birthday game, which fell on a Sunday this year. I figured there had to be at least a 40% chance or so of having a birthday game.

But, when the 2020 MLS schedule was announced on December 19, 2019, I was disappointed to see a Saturday game for that weekend; not my birthday. I mean, it didn’t ruin my day or anything, but I did think “Damn, I wish they woulda scheduled a game for my birthday this year.”

Now, I’m closer to 60 than 50 at this point. I’ve made a lot of birthday wishes, and as far as I remember none have ever come true, including all the ones made more traditionally on the birthday itself while blowing out candles and eating cake.And in December 2019, nobody was thinking about a pandemic. Not WHO, not Dr. Fauci, or the CDC, or the CCP, or Trump, or whoever you prefer to blame (or praise) for their response. That’s not what this is about at all, but I do need to stress that nobody had it on the radar then.

And then, in a twist worthy of any good Monkey’s Paw story variation, by birthday wish magic did its thing. Which in addition to all the more important negative effects it cancelled the MLS season, and led to the  MLS Is Back Tournament and a new schedule for every team. But it doesn’t end there. NYCFC’s 3 group stage games were scheduled for July 9, 14 and 20, all days before my birthday. NYCFC would have to qualify for the knockout round to have a chance, and then end up somewhat randomly in a pre-set matchup scheduled for my birthday.

After losing the first 2 games, it seemed grim, and the team looked a bit flat finally winning over a winless Inter Miami FC team in the third game. But with that record and a -2 goal differential, NYCFC would need a lot of help to advance. It was one of those things where I think 4 of 6 other results had to go a certain way, and in the end it came down to the next to last group stage game between the Houston Dynamo and the LA Galaxy, and then it required a penalty kick being awarded to the Galaxy in the 90th minute to allow them to tie the game, knock out Houston, and put NYCFC in the next stage.

And then, sure enough, the fates put NYCFC against a strong Toronto FC team in the first knockout round, on my birthday. Toronto was favored. They have been stronger this year in the tournament, and have a history of beating NYCFC in playoff and tournament style competitions. But, my NYCFC Birthday Magic came through again, and NYCFC roundly dominated Toronto, won 3-1, and advance to the quarterfinals.

To sum up, NYCFC has now played 4 times in 6 years on my birthday, despite playing on average just 1 game any given week. The odds of that are tiny by itself. But they have also won every time. Overall, their W/L/T pcts are about 44/31/25.  So NYCFC wins are not uncommon — they happen more often than either ties or losses — but Wins alone account for fewer than half of the results overall.

So I’m very happy that the team has this odd little quirk in both its schedule and results. And I’m sorry it took a pandemic this year to make it happen. I would, of course, never actually trade dealing with a pandemic and global recession just to get a NYCFC game and win on my birthday again.

But given all that bad stuff happened on its own, I’ll take this small upside, one of the few positive surprises 2020 has thrown at me. And I hope everyone gets, finds, and can enjoy your own little moments this year as well.

Thanks NYCFC and MLS.

If Every MLS Team Were A Ride At Disney World

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Though I’m done posting with any sort of regularity, I can still make occasional posts as I see fit. A NYCFC Forums user named Nickp91 suggested someone should match eatch MLS team with a Walt Disney World attraction in honor of the MLS is Back Tournament draw taking place in WDW. Being a devoted fan of NYCFC, MLS, and the Magic Kingdom, I took up the task. What follows is a slightly reorganized reprint of what I posted in the forums. Let’s begin with a little something I put together in honor of NYCFC’s first official game back in 2015.

 

Now the list:

Swiss Family Treehouse
Colorado Rapids. You go up, you go down, but not much really happens and comparatively boring. Fitting for a team whose most famous player the last 5 years was a goal keeper.

Journey into Imagination with Figment
Nashville. Are we sure there’s a team in Nashville? I mean, I read reports, those reports said they were in the West, and after two supposed games they just stopped playing and now they’re in the East? I don’t think it’s real.

Carousel of Progress
New England Revolution. A history of technology as it affects a typical American family, except the history stops in the 1990s just like MLS 1.0.

Prince Charming Regal Carousel
You are in a country whose reason for existing was a revolt against monarchy, then name yourself using the Spanish word for “royal” and insist everyone pronounce it with an accent — in Utah. You get a merry-go-round with the word “regal” in it.

The Seas with Nemo & Friends
Inter Miami. You think it might be cool but in the end it’s boring with pretty colors.

Triceratop Spin
The Red Bulls. This ride is nothing more than a retread of Dumbo, rebranded with a horned animal.

Astro Orbiter
Houston Dynamo. A team that rebranded and relocated to Houston gets Elevated Dumbo: This Time in Outer Space.

Splash Mountain
Seattle Sounders. It’s a pretty lame ride with little to recommend it, you always end up wet, and a bunch of animatronic characters never shut up. Then suddenly at at the end it gets pretty spectacular.

Space Mountain
Vancouver Whitecaps. Neither roller coasters nor soccer stadiums should be indoors. Space Mountain is the least of the Magic Kingdoms’ 3 “mountain” rides, just like the third wheel in the Cascadia Cup.

Big Thunder Mountain Railroad
Portland Timbers. Not the best or most exciting coaster, but solid and delivers decent thrills with a somewhat overdone bit of corny western charm.

It’s A Small World
Atlanta United. Another ride that never shuts up. But no matter how much you want to ignore it, and get that song out of your head, you can’t.

Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run
LA Galaxy. A world-class pedigree, but no longer top dog and falls apart without the right person at the helm.

Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance
LAFC. Fashionably of the moment but limitations mean a lot of people end up disappointed.

Star Tours — The Adventure Continues
San Jose Earthquakes. Hey! Remember me!?!? I’m Star Wars too. How come nobody cares any more!?!?!?

Seven Dwarfs Mine Train
FC Cincinnati. New but no longer fresh, and vaguely Germanic. Draws big crowds but inevitably small.

Enchanted Tiki Room
Montreal Impact. The only attraction where anyone has a French accent, yet it’s not even the main language featured and kind of forced.

Test Track
Orlando City SC. There’s a brief portion where you go very fast, but mostly the ride is pointlessly bumpy and shaky, and seems to break down more than any other. [Note: Thanks to Michael for the comment. Calling them the Magic was unintentional but probably a subconscious link.]

Jungle Cruise
Columbus Crew. This ride made sense when Disney World opened and had no live animals. Now with Animal Kingdom it has no purpose, but the public is inexplicably fond of it and any attempt to get rid of it would surely fail.

Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover
Sporting KC. Solid. Dependable. Hardly anyone loves it or hates it, but it serves a purpose.

Spaceship Earth
Chicago Fire. Another look back through history stuck a few decades in the past, though it is currently in the process of getting a makeover.

The Magic Carpets of Aladdin
Toronto FC. It’s foreign, but only sort of, and Americans play the most important roles.

Frozen Ever After
Minnesota United. Vaguely Nordic, but not as much as it used to be when it was Maelstrom.

The Haunted Mansion
FC Dallas. There’s no good reason why the Haunted Mansion is in Liberty Square just like there’s no reason FC Dallas (or the US Soccer HOF) is in Frisco.

Hall of Presidents
Philadelphia Union. Devoted to history but no matter who is in charge many are disappointed.

Hollywood Tower of Terror
DC United. Classic and was once a main attraction, but though still fun its glory days are in the past.

Expedition Everest
New York City FC. Starts like a typical roller coaster, has some great moments, then goes backwards for a while, rights itself towards the end but always ends up in the same place and some broken track means it never reaches the summit.

In My Beginning Is My End – NYCFC Weekly Update October 7, 2019 MLS Week 31

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In a compacted 31 week season, NYCFC did not touch First Place until Week 27 after playing 28 games. But, when measured on even games played, NYC first tied for First Place after 16 games. They dropped to Fourth after losing the next 2 games, but were back tied after 19 games again. From Game 20 on they held First Place alone for all but 2 weeks (twice briefly falling to second to Philadelphia), and took First Place for good after 24 games played.

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Team Records Set

Most points (64).
Highest Goal Differential (21)
Highest East Finish (First)
Highest Supporters Shield Finish (Second)
Goals For (63)
Goals Against (42)

NYCFC is one of only 7 teams to finish a season with a winning Away record since 2015.
Since and including 2015, when NYC went 4-10-3 Away, no team has more Away points (103). The Red Bulls have 101.

NYCFC has the third highest point total since coming into the league in 2015 with 268, behind Red Bulls (286) and FC Dallas (271).
NYCFC has the highest total points over the last 4 years: 2016-2019 (231), ahead of Red Bulls (226) and Seattle (216).

In My End Is My Beginning

“At some point math takes over.” May 24, 2015

On May 25,2015  a series of posts on the NYCFC forums starting here, I began adding up how hard it would be to get the points necessary to make the playoffs. The day before, I responded to sa series of optimistic posts with the above terse statement that has animated my view all along: no matter how hard you believe (or don’t), if you look honestly at the numbers they won’t lie to you.  On July 19, I started a new thread with a series of posts whose theme was what needed to be done and hot it could happen, however unlikely. That effort was the beginning of this column.

It’s been fun, and it’s been a lot of work, and after 5 years I think I’m calling an end to creating it weekly.

It feels like there is  a nice symmetry to things. In 2015 I mostly seemed to be countering irrational exuberance, and in 2019, at least occasionally, I had to convince people that this team really was good and would finish well. It helped that the last 14 games of the season played exactly as I anticipated. As July turned to August, I started stating that the team could very well lose 2 of the next 3 (Away to RSL and Atlanta and hosting Houston in between), then dominate the next 7, and face a tough final 4 games of which the Atlanta game would be key. This did not take amazing foresight or brilliant analysis: I was just looking at the schedule.  But as it happened they did lose in RSL and Atlanta, won 19 points of the next 21, and then all but clinched by beating Atlanta. That’s a good way to go out.

For balance, probably my wrongest take ever was predicting NYCFC would not make the playoffs on May 29, 2016 after a a dispiriting Home draw against Orlando. An even more dismal Home loss to RSL a few days later produced even more pessimism, though I can’t find the specific post at the moment.

I’m not going to stop keeping track of the same stats and graphs, and I will occasionally write them up when I am inclined or inspired to do so, but I think I am done with the regular grind of creating weekly NYCFC content.

What we call the beginning is often the end
And to make an end is to make a beginning.
The end is where we start from.

Burning Down The House – NYCFC Weekly Update September 30, 2019 MLS Week 30

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It was once upon a place
Sometime I listen to myself
Gonna come in first place

All the Magic Numbers read “0.” None of these charts are needed to analyze anything now: Partly because many playoff positions are locked (including NYCFC’s), partly because as of midweek, for the first time since Opening Day, every team has played the same amount of games, and partly because the remaining possibilities are better analyzed by looking at a basic League Table and the matchups on Decision Day. But they help complete a story:

Finally, a reminder from Joe Cocker that even when you lose 2-0 and want to avoid a tense Decision Day, you can get by with a little help.

 

 

 

 

Bring It On Home To Me – NYCFC Weekly Update September 23, 2019 MLS Week 29

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Short and simple this week. The magic number for Atlanta is 6 and Philadelphia is 4. Beat Atlanta on Wednesday and they are done, while the number for Philadelphia is no worse than 1. A draw with Atlanta is not necessarily catastrophic, but the path to first place would be very muddied at best. Let’s not discuss a loss. On the upside, NYCFC can clinch first place on Wednesday.  On the same night that Atlanta and NYCFC go at it, The Union play San Jose on short rest after a cross country flight.  It’s a shame that the Quakes will be without their top scorer (Wondolowski) and assist generator (Espinoza).

All the possibilities.

NYCFC has clinched finishing ahead of everyone in the West except LAFC (their Magic Number for NYCFC is 3) and Minnesota, for whom NYCFC’s magic number is 1. NYCFC finished the season 7-2-3 against the West for exactly 2.00 PPG.

NYCFC has achieved it’s best point total in its 5 year history at 58, and has clinched having the fewest losses in team history. No matter what the team will have no more than 8 losses. The previous low was 9 in 2017.

Since and including June 29, when NYCFC hosted Philadelphia, the Pigeons are 6-2-0 when the other team scores first (2.25 PPG) , and just 5-2-2 when NYCFC scores first (1.89 PPG). Go figure.

Coffee’s For Closers – NYCFC Weekly Update MLS Week 28 September 16, 2019

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On August 19, I wrote, “NYCFC probably needs 15+ points (OK maybe 13 or 14 if other things go well but that’s pushing it)  from these 6 games to have a shot at finishing first as it heads into the final 4 games, which include hosting Atlanta, and Away to Dallas, New England and Philadelphia.” NYCFC earned 16, and is now in a very strong position.  NYC also won the previous game in Cincinnati, for 19 points out of 21 in a seven game stretch of easy matchups. That’s good work, but there is still work to be done.
It is a reasonable goal to clinch the East before Decision Day and in doing so make the game Away to Philadelphia meaningless to NYCFC and its place in the standings.   The keystone is the game against Atlanta the middle of next week.  Beat Atlanta at home, and the remaining Magic Number is 1 for Atlanta.  Add any additional result: an Atlanta draw or loss or NYCFC win or draw and NYCFC finishes ahead of the Five Stripes. It is possible such a result could happen even before the Atlanta game.  Atlanta is away to Cincinnati Wednesday, host San Jose next weekend, NYC midweek next week, then at Montreal the following weekend, before hosting New England on Decision Day. Chances are Atlanta drops one more point, or NYC picks up one more somewhere.
The hypothetically assumed win over Atlanta would also lower the Magic Number against the Union to 5.  Before Decision Day, the Union is away to Red Bulls, San Jose and Columbus. They could very well drop 5 points in those games (going 1-1-1 would do it), which would not even require any other results from NYCFC besides Atlanta, though at this point almost no result can be a surprise.  Who could foresee Atlanta winning in Portland but falling to Columbus at home?  IF NYC can win 1 other game, either at Dallas or New England, then it would just require 1 Philly draw to clinch.
Failing to beat Atlanta requires a lot of other things to go right.
Besides Atlanta and Philadelphia, NYC plays away to Dallas next weekend and to the Revs in between AT: and PHI.  Dallas has lost only 1 home game all year and has 5 home draws. The Revs have 5 home losses, but 4 predate Arena taking over and the other was against LAFC. NYCFC can win either but these are tough road games.
Atlanta only has 29 GP so here is the Points at 29 chart:
NYC has set a new highest Goal Differential (19). The previous high of 18 was  after 23 games in 2018 (and last week).  2019 has also matched the highest Point Total set in 2017, with 4 games remaining.
Every remaining possibility:
Magic Numbers:
PHI 8, ATL 7.
West: RSL, POR, and SEA 5, MIN 4, LAG 1
LAFC: 20 (their number for NYC is 6).
Finally, when both Maxi and Héber both play, NYC has only 1 loss. When neither plays (which is fortunately much rarer, NYCFC has 1 win.

It’s A Long Way To The Top – NYCFC Weekly Update MLS Week 27 September 9, 2019

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On Monday April 15, after playing 6 games, NYCFC had 5 points and no wins. Five Thirty Eight gave them a 4% chance of coming in first, and a 54% chance of making the playoffs. The team got better quickly, and for the past few weeks the biggest obstacle to them sitting in first has been a low number of games played.  Comparing all East teams based on points through the same number of games played, as we have been doing here for several weeks, NYCFC has had more points at each point for 9 out of 13 games since Game 16, including the last 5 in a row. But it was just this week when NYCFC ever held or shared first place in the East, in Week 27 and after 28 games played.

Now NYCFC has clinched a playoff spot, and 538 says they have a 66% chance of finishing first. With 6 games remaining nothing is guaranteed, and the game against Atlanta could decide the issue, but this has been quite a turn around already.

 

In 5 of NYCFC’s last 10 wins (PHI, COL, CIN, RB, and NE), the opponent scored first. In another (Houston), NYCFC trailed 2-1.  I’m not sure this is a positive overall. It did not happen once in the first 5 wins, largely because of a lot more clean sheets, though of course it is good to know the team can come back from negative game states. On the flip side, NYCFC led in 2 of its 5 losses (RB and RSL).

The rolling 5-game PPG has hit the maximum of 3 for the first time.

The 10-game rolling PPG has hit 2.4 for just the second time. The first was 16 games into this season.

We’re hitting the trail end of the season when the PPG standings mean less, but here it is.

At the same time, this table is everything now:

The magic number for New England and DC is 2. For Red Bulls and Toronto it is 4. All could happen this coming week with 2 win and/or those teams dropping  points, and would guarantee finishing no lower then third.  Philadelphia and Atlanta are both at 14 so still a ways off.  Looking West, NYC has clinched over Colorado, Houston and Vancouver, and at worst a draw on points with SKC.  The remaining numbers are Dallas 6, Galaxy 8, RSL, Portland and Seattle 9, San Jose 10 and Minnesota 11.

Boys Keep Swinging — NYCFC Weekly Update MLS Week 26 September 2, 2019

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Four straight wins matches the best such streaks of NYCFC’s history. Still, to put themselves in the best, most defensible position to win the top spot in the East, they might need to extend it to 7, because the next three home games against New England, toronto and San Jose, are the easiest on NYCFC’s remaining schedule.  NYCFC probably will need in the area of 12 more points to finish first in the East.  It will not help that NYC will play all or some of those games without all or some of Johnson, Matarrita, Chanot, Callens, Sands,, and TBD:  Héber (status uncertain) and Shradi (return date completely unguessable).

With less than a quarter of the season remaining, NYC have the league’s second best PPG, second fewest losses*, second best Goal Differential, second most Away points, second best Away PPG, are 1 of only 2 teams with a winning Away record and positive Away Goal Differential (LAFC is the other of course). Largely due to having fewer games played, they are third in Total Points (Philadelphia is second with 1 more point and 2 more Games Played), and fourth in Total Wins (Philly and Atlanta both have 1 more win with 2 and 1 additional games played).

  • Some may wonder if the games in hand diminish this stat, but NYCFC has 3 fewer losses than the two closest in this category, with only 1 or 2 extra games to play. Even if NYCFC lose every extra game, they still lead this stat, pening the remaining games in common.

I do not know what the argument is that NYCFC is not clearly the second best team to date in MLS. Schedule congestion for Atlanta? It’s a fair point to note, with their recent Leagues Cup and MLS cup runs, plus the CCL early on. Some note that NYC has lost 3 of the most recent 4 games against teams above the playoff line: RB (both a win and loss), RSL, and Atlanta.  You can create excuses for all those games based on missing players and ref calls, but I prefer to note that NYC also has won against DC (A), the Galaxy (A), Philadelphia and Seattle, plus the previously noted RB game. NYC’s record against teams currently above the playoff line is 5-4-3, with 7 of the 12 games on the road, including 2 of the wins.

It’s hard to measure that against how other teams have played against playoff teams.  It is a small game sample, subject to change as teams move above and below the line, and most importantly, ignores Home and Away.  I think Home and Away is more important in MLS than playoff status. All of NYCFC’s remaining games are against teams currently above the playoff line, and 4 are Home and 3 Away.  If you gave me the opportunity to switch that to having only 3 of the Games against playoff teams, but all 7 Away, I would not take the offer.  I think you measure tough games in MLS at least as much by Away performance as by the opponent’s overall record.  With those disclaimers, I checked the records of Atlanta, Philadelphia, Seattle and Minnesota against current playoff teams. Of those, I would only say Philadelphia has a better record, subject to all the factors just listed. And the Union lag NYCFC in all other major stats.  besides the ones listed above, they had 5 fewer points at 27 games than NYC does now.

I dropped more low end results from the following table. I could conceivably add some to the top, but that seems hubristic, and simply unlikely, though not impossible.

2019 NYCFC is finally ahead of 2018 after 27 games, with 50 points to 48.  There is a tie with 2017, which team only managed 1 win and 4 ties in the final 7 games.  We’ll see if 2019 can survive the presumed absence of Heber and avoid a similar finish.

Finally, second place with games in hand looks good here.

 

Thoughts On The Race For First In MLS Eastern Conference 2019

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If Philadelphia wins the Division with their remaining schedule I will be both impressed and shocked. They have only 5 games left, compared to 6 for Atlanta and 7 for NYCFC. Philadelphia has only 2 home games left against the 2 best road teams in the league (LAFC and NYC), and visit solid home teams RB and SJ, plus Columbus. They could very well manage a couple of wins, but there are no near-certain wins in that set of games. Maybe they shock and beat LAFC, but more likely let’s say maybe a draw there, a win in Columbus and draws in the other 2 road games. That’s 6 (57 total) points going into Decision Day, 60 max at season end, and frankly all that is somewhat optimistic.

Meanwhile Atlanta has 4 extremely likely wins. Atlanta, a great home team, gets to host Columbus, SJ and New England, none of whom are great road teams (though the Revs improved a bit since Arena took over), and are Away to Cincinnati, NYC and the Impact. That’s 4 very likely wins at least. Then let’s say NYC beat them (not a given but quite likely chance) and they draw the Impact. That’s 13 points and 61 total at season end. Their decision day game is home to the Revs and I already gave ATL that win.

That has us aiming for 62 points. It has to start with winning all the home games, including Atlanta. That is 62 points right away, but it does require beating Atlanta and maintaining a 7-game win streak. All else the same, a draw against Atlanta drops us to 60 and Atlanta up to 62, which requires winning a remaining road game to overcome that. Dallas and the Union are both excellent, above 2 PPG at home. New England is 1.60 including the pre-Arena days.

My bottom line is if NYCFC wins out at home including Atlanta, then the rest probably takes care of itself. Alternatively any 4 wins as long as 1 is Atlanta does it. Disclaimer: no guarantees, etc., etc, but these are reasonable possibilities. If the Union beat LAFC or Atlanta drops points at Home or in Cincinnati, then everything changes, for worse or better.

MLS Interconference Play 2019 – August

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August – 20 Games
East Record 10-10-4
At Home 7-3-1(9)
On Road 3-7-3 (11)
Goal Differential -4
East Points 34
West Points 34

Season to Date
East Record 47-58-21
At Home 34-18-10 (60)
On Road 13-40-11 (61)
Goal Differential -26
East Points 162
West Points 195

Decent month for the East, managing to match the West in wins despite 2 fewer Home games, but it is clear the Wes is going to win the H2H matchups this year. There should be 18 games remaining and the West’s 11 win lead is effectively insurmountable.

NYCFC is 6-2-2 against the West after beating Vancouver last night.