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Goal Differential Minus xGoal Differential – Spoiler: It’s About Cushing

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People who hate xG can skip this post. For the rest, let’s discuss xGoal Differential and “Goal Differential Minus xGoal Differential.” xGD measures how well a team is performing measured by adding up both quantity and quality of shots taken and allowed without regard to whether those shots went in. GD-xGD measures how much a team’s actual goals scored and allowed performance differs from its xGD. A positive number is good or lucky, negative the opposite. My personal view is that GD-xGD is not 100% luck, but it probably is >50% luck.
Over sufficiently many teams, leagues and seasons, composite GD-xGD will approach zero. That’s how the system is built. In smaller numbers, even an entire season for one team, you can have pretty big variances, but outliers rarely repeat year-over-year, because IMO, it’s mostly luck.

  • The NYCFC coach with the best per game GD-xGD is Jason Kreis at +0.25 per game. Keep that in mind if you are tempted to believe that good coaches find a way for their teams to outperform their xG. Kreis has the worst GD and worst xGD but his actual GD was significantly better than his xGD. And it’s not because Villa was a great finisher (nor that Saunders an amazing shot-stopper). Vieira and Torrent also had DV and Torrent’s numbers improved the year without him. PV also had a G-xG magician in Frank Lampard.
  • Here is the per game xGD and GD-xGD for the rest of the NYCFC coaches:
    • Vieira +0.17 / +0.20
    • Torrent +0.36 / +0.13
    • Deila +0.59 / +0.08
    • Cushing +0.42 / -0.58
  • 2022 breakdown xGD / GD-xGD
    • 2022 Ronny +0.81 / +0.42
    • 2022 next 8 +0.87 / -0.25
    • 2022 last 10 +0.05 / -0.85
  • Until the injuries hit, Cushing kept the team xGD up very high, but NYCFC and opponent finishing took a wrong turn. Team still went 4-1-3. Then the xGD over the last 10 games dropped – by a lot – to mediocre. Not good, but far from terrible. The team should probably have 8-10 more points than it does in that period as the GD-xGD fell off a cliff.
  • For comparison, Torrent’s breakdown is +0.17 / -0.21 in his first 25 games and +0.54 / +0.42 in his last 28.
  • Cushing has had 18 games, roughly half of those dealing with major injuries.

Disclaimer – yes I do see things worth criticizing in how Cushing has the team playing even with all the allowances. But he’s very much not had a fair shake yet and did fine before the injuries went exponential. I expect the team sees this as well, and that unless we miss the playoffs he returns in 2023. If they don’t qualify, I’ll be curious to see if they follow the Kreis rule or not.

Things what I noticed while looking at this:

  • Is Philadelphia lucky or good this year? Both. Per game xGD +0.72 / GD-xGD +0.70
  • Austin is very, very fortunate. Per game xGD -0.20 / GD-xGD +0.70
  • Only 2017 Atlanta finished a full season at +0.70 or better on per game GD-xGD.
  • Counting both 2022 Union and Austin, only 11 teams have had a full season of +0.50 per game or better GD-xGD. This is based on 228 team seasons from 2013 to present on ASA.

NYCFC May 30, 2022 – Odds’n’Ends, Shapes and Contrasts

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  • 26 points is the most NYCFC has ever had after 13 games.  In 2018 they had 24, and they had 20 points after 13 games 3 times: 2017, 2019, and 2021. Charts show 2018 and later, skipping the extremely anomalous and short 2020 season.

  • +15 is the highest Goal Differential after 13 games.  Previous high was 7 in 2018.   The earliest NYCFC ever reached +15 GD was in 2021 when they had +16 after 20 games.

  • 22 points in 8 games is the best 8-game stretch in team history. Previous best was 20 points, achieved twice in August-September 2019 (games 24-31 and 25-32).
  • NYCFC’s longest undefeated streak is 12 games in April-July 2019, then a 9 game streak also in 2019 (see previous bullet).  Current streak of 8 is tied with season-straddling streak in 2017-18.
  • The six game scoreless streak coincided perfectly with May. Counting Cup games, NYCFC played 8 games across all competitions and allowed one goal, to a third division team.
  • Deila has coached 70 regular season games, behind only Veira (83), and will pass him in August barring a major shock.  He ranks third in career PPG.

The bottom 2 lines reflect Veira’s numbers excluding his first 8 games, and Deila’s excluding his first 6.   I figure Veira deserves a break to get settled given he took over a dysfunctional team, and Deila’s first 6 entailed a CCL distraction, then pandemic, then the weird Orlando return, then almost another month off, followed immediately by an Away Derby.   Their records both are what they are, but I find this useful context.
  • For Domé fans, he had the best 28 game stretch with 59 points at the long back end of 2019.
  • An odd trademark of Ronny’s teams is that they score a whole lot or very few goals.  I calculated the team’s goals per game standard deviation for each year. We’ll have to see where 2022 ends up when it has a full season – it’s currently no surprise it is an outlier with just 13 games, as was 2020 with 23 games.  But Ronny also has the 3 highest years, meaning NYCFC has a lot of games scoring very few or very many goals away from the average.

  • Here’s another way of looking at it.  This table shows how many games the team scored 0-1 goals, 2-3  goals, or 4+ goals under each coach.  NYCFC scores 0-1 goals under Ronny almost as often as they did under Jason Kreis, has the lowest percentage of 2-3 goal games, and accumulates 4+ goal games roughly twice as much as under Torrent or Vieira.
  • NYCFC has played the third easiest schedule to date based on opposing PPG adjusted for H/A at 1.12. DC United and Shield rival LAFC had slightly easier schedules. The good news is NYCFC has a fairly easy remaining schedule at 1.33 PPG, which is not even in the top half of difficulty. LAFC’s remaining opponents come in at 1.54.
  • Here are some sample records that get NYCFC to various point totals. The team could collapse, get just 1.29 PPG the rest of the season, and still be all but guaranteed to make the playoffs at 53 points.  Finishing at 60 or higher is not a lock but not too hard. 70 is a stretch.

  • Finally just because I always included one of these here is a PPG table.

NYCFC 2020 In Review By The Numbers

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What follows is a somewhat scattershot series of observations on NYCFC’s rather odd 2020 season now that all the numbers are in. There were 23 games, three home sites (one in Florida and shared with the entire league), the MLS Is Back Tournament, of which some games counted as league games and some did not, two midseason breaks, one for pandemic lockdown and another for the league to plan things out after tournament, a terrible start, a failure to score more than 1 goal in 14 of 23 games, the loss of the team’s leading scorer of 2019 to injury, and the midseason transfer of a Designated Player to accommodate personal circumstances.

History Lessons

If you want to sharpen the differences and not be bound by seasons or coaching changes, here is  a good way to break up NYCFC’s history (regular season games only):
First 42 Games: 1.088 PPG – This includes 2015 plus Vieira’s First 8 games
Next 81: 1.815 PPG – This includes the remainder of Vieira’s time plus the first 6 Torrent games before his slump.
The last 70: 1.657 PPG – Everything from the start of the Dome slump to date
If you’re willing to fine tune it some more:
The last 58: 1.828 PPG – All games after the Dome slump, from the final game of 2018 to today.
Ronny Deila currently has a higher PPG than Vieira but is below Torrent.  The team’s 1.686 PPG this year just beats Vieira’s 2017 1.676 for second best season PPG ever.

Notes on 2020

Since starting  0-4-0 the team played  2.05 PPG pg over 19 games, much of it without 2 of its best scoring threats, and even a good chunk without Maxi.
Thru the first 19 games in 2020, NYC scored 1.26 G/Gm and allowed 1.00 G/Gm. The 2015 NYCFC team scored 49 goals for 1.44 goals per game, easily the lowest G/Gm in club history. To exceed that ratio and avoid being the worst scoring team in club history, 2020 needed to score at least 10 goals in its last 4 games. It scored 13 and ended at 1.61. That was still low enough to be the second lowest Goals per Game ratio the club has achieved.
2019 NYCFC  gave up 42 goals for 1.25 GA/Gm. 2020 had to allow 9 goals or fewer over the last 4 to be the best defensive team (as measured by that single metric) in club history.  They yielded 6 and finished at 1.09 The next best season was 2019 at 1.24 Goals Against per Game.
On Goal Differential, 2020 ended with the second best GD per game at 0.52.  The 2019 team is the best with 0.62.

2020 Home/Away and Uniform Breakdowns

Excluding MLS is Back
Home 7-2-0 2.33 PPG
Away 4-4-3 1.36 PPG
With MLS Is Back
Home 7-4-0 1.91 PPG
Away 5-4-3- 1.50 PPG
Home is Where You Make It
“Home” in Orlando  0-2-0   0.00 PPG
“Home” in RBA  4-1-0   2.40 PPG
Home in Yankee Stadium 3-1-0 2.25 PPG

Uniforms
Primary Kit 9-6-3 1.67 PPG
Secondary Kit 3-2-0 1.80 PPG

DP Play/Absence

NYCFC has never had a season in which at least one designated player did not fail to appear in at least 10 games. With a 23 game season, and 3 DPs on the roster from Day One of camp, the team has never been better positioned to end the streak. Certainly, I anticipated that you would have to pro rate to the 23 game season equivalent of 10 games over 34 to claim to extend the streak.  But NYCFC will always NYCFC, and managed to have not just one but two DPs miss 10 actual games in just 23 opportunities. Maxi Moralez was hurt, and missed 10 games. Mitrita left for personal reasons, and missed 11.  It was the first time NYCFC had 2 DPs miss at least 10 games since 2015, and that season started with just 1 DP on the roster.  This was quite a performance. However, 2015 remains the worst DP participation season ever, measured by both percentage of games played and of minutes played. 2020 was second worst.
2015 DPs played in 47.07% of possible minutes, and 52.94% of possible games.  In 2020, they played 49.42% of available minutes and 68.12% of games.

Advanced Stats

All of the below is  gleaned from and with thanks to American Soccer Analysis.
On a net basis, NYCFC’s true  Goal Differential outperformed xGD by 0.84 cumulative over the season, which is pretty close to on point.  So according to xG, NYC was exactly what their record said it was. Still, NYC had the 4th best xGD in the league, but only 6th best  Actual GD, because Columbus, Philadelphia and Orlando strongly over performed.
NYCFC had 39.14 xG and scored 36 excluding one own goal gift. -3.14
NYCFC conceded 28.97 xG and real 25 for + 3.97
NYC had 39 points and 37.84 xPts, and so over performed by 1.16, which seems roughly in line with the G-xG differential.  In the East, Philadelphia outdid its xPts by 11.36, Columbus by 10.37, and Orlando by 6.76 and each had fewer xPts than NYCFC.  But before you curse the fates, also know that Toronto and New England had more xPts than NYCFC.  Toronto also overperformed, but New England trailed its xPts by 6.98.
On the newer Goals Added stat (“g+”), NYC had a For/Against differential of +12.55, second only to Seattle’s 13.72.  If that stat really is all that the ASA gang claims, there’s a case to be made that for all of the struggles, NYCFC had the second best performance of any team in MLS.

The Best of Times, The Worst of Times

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The 2015 NYCFC team scored 49 goals for 1.44 goals per game, easily the lowest G/Gm in club history.  To exceed that ratio and avoid being the worst scoring team in club history, this team — currently at 1.26 G/Gm — needs to score 10 goals in its last 4 games.

On the positive side, last year’s team gave up 42 goals for 1.25 GA/Gm. This year NYCFC sits at 1.00 GA/Gm and need allow 9 goals or fewer to be the best defensive team (as measured by that single metric) in club history.

Short season disclaimer, but new club records seem are certainly within reach and seem likely.

NYCFC 2020 – 15 Games In – 8 To Go

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Avenue of the Americas, New York City, Wednesday May 20 at 9:20am.
Though I’m not posting much and certainly not planning to resume weekly roundups, I thought this a good time, with 15 games played and 8 games left, to help put NYCFC’s place in the standings and likely finishing range in context.
As a reminder, the East playoffs work like this in 2020: 10 teams make the playoffs. Teams 1-6 get a bye from Round 1.  Teams 7-10 play in Round 1 and the 2 winners join teams 5 and 6 as visitors in Round 2.  NYCFC currently sits in 5th place. There’s a decent gap between the top 4 and the 5-6 teams.  If those teams stay on pace, it will require 43 or more points to crack the top 4.
Getting there would require a near perfect finish.  Of course it will not take a major slump for one or more of those top 4 teams to fall off and make it more reachable.  One obstacle, however, is that NYCFC has a remaining schedule that comparatively is pretty tough, and the 4th place team has an extremely easy remaining schedule.  Toronto has benefitted from an easy schedule to date, and various advanced stats say  Columbus has been lucky and/or pluckily overachieved (take your pick). But their 8 point leads over NYCFC will be pretty tough to overcome in 8 remaining games.
Those opposing PPG figures are H/A adjusted. I’m a bit surprised at how much the Home/Away advantage has held in a season where games are mostly played without fans, some “home” games are being held in different cities (and even different countries) and each team had 3 games where the H/A distinction was entirely theoretical. This year Home teams are getting 1.58 PPG and Away 1.17.  Last year, those figures were 1.79 and 0.98 respectively.  It is a diminished effect, but still quite potent.
On the good news/bad news front, NYCFC’s schedule includes games against Orlando, Columbus,and Toronto, all Away and all in the space of 2 weeks (with a Home game against Montreal mixed in). The opportunity to move up is there but that’s a tough road.
So, making top 4 is not out of the question but seemingly a long shot. On the other hand, if NYCFC can outperform the simple projection by one win and get 38 points, it becomes almost as hard for the Red Bulls to catch NYCFC as it is for NYCFC to catch the top 4.  So though nothing is certain by any means, I suspect it is solidly more than a 50% chance that NYCFC stays in the same playoff bucket, with a bye in Round 1 and an Away game in Round 2.
As a final NYCFC note, prorated for a 23 game season, NYCFC just extended its streak of having at least one Designated Player miss at least 10 games in every season of its existence. In a 23-game season, the proportional equivalent of 10 games is 6.7, and Maxi has now missed 7 games.  With 3 games scheduled in the next 10 days, unless Maxi gets better very quickly he is likely to miss 10 even in the shortened season, which would be quite the dubious achievement extended for NYCFC.
As a final MLS note, I can’t help but think we’re headed to another Toronto-Seattle matchup in the MLS Cup, and if a global pandemic can’t shake us out of that rut then it really isn’t good for anything, is it?

A Story About NYCFC History, My Birthday, and How I Might Be Responsible for the Pandemic

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I was not much of a soccer fan until 2014.

I flirted with the Cosmos phenomenon in the late 1970s, and intermittently watched World Cups every 4 years, but basically had a typical US disinterest in the sport. But then something clicked during the 2014 World Cup. When it ended I was hungry for more, but I have never been able to care much about foreign leagues, despite the high quality play. I’ve tried and even now, as much as I love the sport, I cannot care about La Liga, or the EPL, or Bundesliga or even Champions League.

In 2014 my focus was even more on local options. Where could I go watch some live games? I knew so little about Major League Soccer.  I had a slight awareness that the local team for New York played in New Jersey, and maybe were once called the MetroStars but not any more? Researching that led me to discover that the MetroStars had indeed become the Red Bulls, which was both a team name as well as a sponsor and owner. But, as it happened, I also learned that NYCFC was going to begin play in 2015 at Yankee Stadium, pending a new stadium of their own.

Which is , of course, its own sad unending story, but that’s not this story. Anyway, I was very taken with the idea of getting in on the start of a new team, and put down a deposit on season tickets, not sure if I would stay a ticket holder for more than a year or two. As it happened my daughters enjoyed coming to games, and I made some friends via the team. I became very active in a forum community & started this  website to analyze each season’s playoff push week to week.

Plus, the team has an odd habit of playing, and winning, on my birthday.

It began that first year, when they beat Orlando 5-3. Playing on my birthday itself was not remarkable. It was a Sunday, and ignoring days of the week any given date has an even 1/7 chance. More fine-tuned, the bulk of games take place on Saturday or Sunday.  But winning that year was rare in itself, when the team won just 10 of 34 games. They then did not play again on my birthday until 2018, skipping 2 years. But in 2018 they played and beat Orlando City SC  again on a Thursday night, and beat  Sporting KC on a Friday night in 2019. That’s 3 games, all wins, on my birthday in 5 years.

Given that MLS teams play on average one game per week during the season, and the vast bulk of those are on Saturday or Sunday, having three NYCFC games on the same date, in 5 years, and only one of those on a Saturday or Sunday was against the odds, to be sure. When the time came for MLS to announce its 2020 schedule I was cautiously optimistic of another birthday game, which fell on a Sunday this year. I figured there had to be at least a 40% chance or so of having a birthday game.

But, when the 2020 MLS schedule was announced on December 19, 2019, I was disappointed to see a Saturday game for that weekend; not my birthday. I mean, it didn’t ruin my day or anything, but I did think “Damn, I wish they woulda scheduled a game for my birthday this year.”

Now, I’m closer to 60 than 50 at this point. I’ve made a lot of birthday wishes, and as far as I remember none have ever come true, including all the ones made more traditionally on the birthday itself while blowing out candles and eating cake.And in December 2019, nobody was thinking about a pandemic. Not WHO, not Dr. Fauci, or the CDC, or the CCP, or Trump, or whoever you prefer to blame (or praise) for their response. That’s not what this is about at all, but I do need to stress that nobody had it on the radar then.

And then, in a twist worthy of any good Monkey’s Paw story variation, by birthday wish magic did its thing. Which in addition to all the more important negative effects it cancelled the MLS season, and led to the  MLS Is Back Tournament and a new schedule for every team. But it doesn’t end there. NYCFC’s 3 group stage games were scheduled for July 9, 14 and 20, all days before my birthday. NYCFC would have to qualify for the knockout round to have a chance, and then end up somewhat randomly in a pre-set matchup scheduled for my birthday.

After losing the first 2 games, it seemed grim, and the team looked a bit flat finally winning over a winless Inter Miami FC team in the third game. But with that record and a -2 goal differential, NYCFC would need a lot of help to advance. It was one of those things where I think 4 of 6 other results had to go a certain way, and in the end it came down to the next to last group stage game between the Houston Dynamo and the LA Galaxy, and then it required a penalty kick being awarded to the Galaxy in the 90th minute to allow them to tie the game, knock out Houston, and put NYCFC in the next stage.

And then, sure enough, the fates put NYCFC against a strong Toronto FC team in the first knockout round, on my birthday. Toronto was favored. They have been stronger this year in the tournament, and have a history of beating NYCFC in playoff and tournament style competitions. But, my NYCFC Birthday Magic came through again, and NYCFC roundly dominated Toronto, won 3-1, and advance to the quarterfinals.

To sum up, NYCFC has now played 4 times in 6 years on my birthday, despite playing on average just 1 game any given week. The odds of that are tiny by itself. But they have also won every time. Overall, their W/L/T pcts are about 44/31/25.  So NYCFC wins are not uncommon — they happen more often than either ties or losses — but Wins alone account for fewer than half of the results overall.

So I’m very happy that the team has this odd little quirk in both its schedule and results. And I’m sorry it took a pandemic this year to make it happen. I would, of course, never actually trade dealing with a pandemic and global recession just to get a NYCFC game and win on my birthday again.

But given all that bad stuff happened on its own, I’ll take this small upside, one of the few positive surprises 2020 has thrown at me. And I hope everyone gets, finds, and can enjoy your own little moments this year as well.

Thanks NYCFC and MLS.

If Every MLS Team Were A Ride At Disney World

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Though I’m done posting with any sort of regularity, I can still make occasional posts as I see fit. A NYCFC Forums user named Nickp91 suggested someone should match eatch MLS team with a Walt Disney World attraction in honor of the MLS is Back Tournament draw taking place in WDW. Being a devoted fan of NYCFC, MLS, and the Magic Kingdom, I took up the task. What follows is a slightly reorganized reprint of what I posted in the forums. Let’s begin with a little something I put together in honor of NYCFC’s first official game back in 2015.

 

Now the list:

Swiss Family Treehouse
Colorado Rapids. You go up, you go down, but not much really happens and comparatively boring. Fitting for a team whose most famous player the last 5 years was a goal keeper.

Journey into Imagination with Figment
Nashville. Are we sure there’s a team in Nashville? I mean, I read reports, those reports said they were in the West, and after two supposed games they just stopped playing and now they’re in the East? I don’t think it’s real.

Carousel of Progress
New England Revolution. A history of technology as it affects a typical American family, except the history stops in the 1990s just like MLS 1.0.

Prince Charming Regal Carousel
You are in a country whose reason for existing was a revolt against monarchy, then name yourself using the Spanish word for “royal” and insist everyone pronounce it with an accent — in Utah. You get a merry-go-round with the word “regal” in it.

The Seas with Nemo & Friends
Inter Miami. You think it might be cool but in the end it’s boring with pretty colors.

Triceratop Spin
The Red Bulls. This ride is nothing more than a retread of Dumbo, rebranded with a horned animal.

Astro Orbiter
Houston Dynamo. A team that rebranded and relocated to Houston gets Elevated Dumbo: This Time in Outer Space.

Splash Mountain
Seattle Sounders. It’s a pretty lame ride with little to recommend it, you always end up wet, and a bunch of animatronic characters never shut up. Then suddenly at at the end it gets pretty spectacular.

Space Mountain
Vancouver Whitecaps. Neither roller coasters nor soccer stadiums should be indoors. Space Mountain is the least of the Magic Kingdoms’ 3 “mountain” rides, just like the third wheel in the Cascadia Cup.

Big Thunder Mountain Railroad
Portland Timbers. Not the best or most exciting coaster, but solid and delivers decent thrills with a somewhat overdone bit of corny western charm.

It’s A Small World
Atlanta United. Another ride that never shuts up. But no matter how much you want to ignore it, and get that song out of your head, you can’t.

Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run
LA Galaxy. A world-class pedigree, but no longer top dog and falls apart without the right person at the helm.

Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance
LAFC. Fashionably of the moment but limitations mean a lot of people end up disappointed.

Star Tours — The Adventure Continues
San Jose Earthquakes. Hey! Remember me!?!? I’m Star Wars too. How come nobody cares any more!?!?!?

Seven Dwarfs Mine Train
FC Cincinnati. New but no longer fresh, and vaguely Germanic. Draws big crowds but inevitably small.

Enchanted Tiki Room
Montreal Impact. The only attraction where anyone has a French accent, yet it’s not even the main language featured and kind of forced.

Test Track
Orlando City SC. There’s a brief portion where you go very fast, but mostly the ride is pointlessly bumpy and shaky, and seems to break down more than any other. [Note: Thanks to Michael for the comment. Calling them the Magic was unintentional but probably a subconscious link.]

Jungle Cruise
Columbus Crew. This ride made sense when Disney World opened and had no live animals. Now with Animal Kingdom it has no purpose, but the public is inexplicably fond of it and any attempt to get rid of it would surely fail.

Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover
Sporting KC. Solid. Dependable. Hardly anyone loves it or hates it, but it serves a purpose.

Spaceship Earth
Chicago Fire. Another look back through history stuck a few decades in the past, though it is currently in the process of getting a makeover.

The Magic Carpets of Aladdin
Toronto FC. It’s foreign, but only sort of, and Americans play the most important roles.

Frozen Ever After
Minnesota United. Vaguely Nordic, but not as much as it used to be when it was Maelstrom.

The Haunted Mansion
FC Dallas. There’s no good reason why the Haunted Mansion is in Liberty Square just like there’s no reason FC Dallas (or the US Soccer HOF) is in Frisco.

Hall of Presidents
Philadelphia Union. Devoted to history but no matter who is in charge many are disappointed.

Hollywood Tower of Terror
DC United. Classic and was once a main attraction, but though still fun its glory days are in the past.

Expedition Everest
New York City FC. Starts like a typical roller coaster, has some great moments, then goes backwards for a while, rights itself towards the end but always ends up in the same place and some broken track means it never reaches the summit.

In My Beginning Is My End – NYCFC Weekly Update October 7, 2019 MLS Week 31

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In a compacted 31 week season, NYCFC did not touch First Place until Week 27 after playing 28 games. But, when measured on even games played, NYC first tied for First Place after 16 games. They dropped to Fourth after losing the next 2 games, but were back tied after 19 games again. From Game 20 on they held First Place alone for all but 2 weeks (twice briefly falling to second to Philadelphia), and took First Place for good after 24 games played.

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Team Records Set

Most points (64).
Highest Goal Differential (21)
Highest East Finish (First)
Highest Supporters Shield Finish (Second)
Goals For (63)
Goals Against (42)

NYCFC is one of only 7 teams to finish a season with a winning Away record since 2015.
Since and including 2015, when NYC went 4-10-3 Away, no team has more Away points (103). The Red Bulls have 101.

NYCFC has the third highest point total since coming into the league in 2015 with 268, behind Red Bulls (286) and FC Dallas (271).
NYCFC has the highest total points over the last 4 years: 2016-2019 (231), ahead of Red Bulls (226) and Seattle (216).

In My End Is My Beginning

“At some point math takes over.” May 24, 2015

On May 25,2015  a series of posts on the NYCFC forums starting here, I began adding up how hard it would be to get the points necessary to make the playoffs. The day before, I responded to sa series of optimistic posts with the above terse statement that has animated my view all along: no matter how hard you believe (or don’t), if you look honestly at the numbers they won’t lie to you.  On July 19, I started a new thread with a series of posts whose theme was what needed to be done and hot it could happen, however unlikely. That effort was the beginning of this column.

It’s been fun, and it’s been a lot of work, and after 5 years I think I’m calling an end to creating it weekly.

It feels like there is  a nice symmetry to things. In 2015 I mostly seemed to be countering irrational exuberance, and in 2019, at least occasionally, I had to convince people that this team really was good and would finish well. It helped that the last 14 games of the season played exactly as I anticipated. As July turned to August, I started stating that the team could very well lose 2 of the next 3 (Away to RSL and Atlanta and hosting Houston in between), then dominate the next 7, and face a tough final 4 games of which the Atlanta game would be key. This did not take amazing foresight or brilliant analysis: I was just looking at the schedule.  But as it happened they did lose in RSL and Atlanta, won 19 points of the next 21, and then all but clinched by beating Atlanta. That’s a good way to go out.

For balance, probably my wrongest take ever was predicting NYCFC would not make the playoffs on May 29, 2016 after a a dispiriting Home draw against Orlando. An even more dismal Home loss to RSL a few days later produced even more pessimism, though I can’t find the specific post at the moment.

I’m not going to stop keeping track of the same stats and graphs, and I will occasionally write them up when I am inclined or inspired to do so, but I think I am done with the regular grind of creating weekly NYCFC content.

What we call the beginning is often the end
And to make an end is to make a beginning.
The end is where we start from.

Burning Down The House – NYCFC Weekly Update September 30, 2019 MLS Week 30

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It was once upon a place
Sometime I listen to myself
Gonna come in first place

All the Magic Numbers read “0.” None of these charts are needed to analyze anything now: Partly because many playoff positions are locked (including NYCFC’s), partly because as of midweek, for the first time since Opening Day, every team has played the same amount of games, and partly because the remaining possibilities are better analyzed by looking at a basic League Table and the matchups on Decision Day. But they help complete a story:

Finally, a reminder from Joe Cocker that even when you lose 2-0 and want to avoid a tense Decision Day, you can get by with a little help.

 

 

 

 

Bring It On Home To Me – NYCFC Weekly Update September 23, 2019 MLS Week 29

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Short and simple this week. The magic number for Atlanta is 6 and Philadelphia is 4. Beat Atlanta on Wednesday and they are done, while the number for Philadelphia is no worse than 1. A draw with Atlanta is not necessarily catastrophic, but the path to first place would be very muddied at best. Let’s not discuss a loss. On the upside, NYCFC can clinch first place on Wednesday.  On the same night that Atlanta and NYCFC go at it, The Union play San Jose on short rest after a cross country flight.  It’s a shame that the Quakes will be without their top scorer (Wondolowski) and assist generator (Espinoza).

All the possibilities.

NYCFC has clinched finishing ahead of everyone in the West except LAFC (their Magic Number for NYCFC is 3) and Minnesota, for whom NYCFC’s magic number is 1. NYCFC finished the season 7-2-3 against the West for exactly 2.00 PPG.

NYCFC has achieved it’s best point total in its 5 year history at 58, and has clinched having the fewest losses in team history. No matter what the team will have no more than 8 losses. The previous low was 9 in 2017.

Since and including June 29, when NYCFC hosted Philadelphia, the Pigeons are 6-2-0 when the other team scores first (2.25 PPG) , and just 5-2-2 when NYCFC scores first (1.89 PPG). Go figure.