- We started the season with 7 points in 8 games. That’s 0.88 PPG and a cume of 1.05 PPG in 42 games with last season. Since then we are at 1.93 PPG over 15 games.
- We also started the season with 18 points in the first 15 games for 1.20 PPG and 1.12 over 49 games cume with last year. Since then we won 18 points in 8 games for 2.25 PPG.
- In 2014, New England had a 1.15 PPG over its first 20 games which featured both a 5-game winning streak and an 8-game losing streak. They finished with 2.29 PPG over the last 14 and 55 points overall.
- Last year when we were in a truly hopeless situation people sometimes pointed to the 2014 Revs as a reason to hope, but at our best we were barely as good as them at their worst. This year we kind of look like them if you take your glasses off and squint a little.
- We have a 3-game Home winning streak.
- We had 6 Draws in the first 14 games, and none in the last 9.
- We are 4-2-0 against the West 2.0 PPG.
- We are 6-5-6 against the East 1.41 PPG.
- So if we were in the West we’d be in 1st Place of that tough conference, just like we’re in the middle of the East table…. Oh wait, it doesn’t work that way.
- We are 4-3-5 at Home 1.41 PPG.
- We are 6-4-1 on the Road 1.73 PPG.
- Our Goal Differential against the entire league excluding NJRB is +8.
- Our GD against the West is +5. The rest of the East against the West is -18.
- Last week there were 4 teams capable of catching us with the help of just one NYCFC loss or less. Toronto kept pace, but Philly lost, and Montreal and NJRB drew. So we now have a minimally bigger cushion, but spots 1 through 5 in the table are really quite tight and the team cannot afford to start dropping points. Plus the Impact and Red Bull draws were on the road and both were earned with goals after the 85-minute mark. This was not a bad week of East Conference results but it was not as good as it nearly was, or should have been.
- Right now we sit top of the East with projected 53 points. The last time the East winner had that few points was SKC in 2011 with 51 (the first year they played 34 games). The next lowest East winners since then had 59 points.
- My what-we-need-to-do chart doesn’t even go up to 59, but figure we need to win 7 or 8 of the remaining 11.
Think on this: we could get to 50 points with a losing record here on out.
Archives for July 2016
TFC 9 Points Behind with 3 Games In Hand – What Does It Mean
When and How NYCFC Blew the Early Easy Part of its Schedule
My Non-Rigorous Pre-Season Predictions
Last edited: Jul 26, 201
More Notes on the Remaining Schedule
The East is Tight
2016 Weekly Update – July 19
A Measuring Stick for NYCFC’s Road Record
2016 Weekly update – Graphs Version July 18
The interesting part to me about these graphs is how similar the lines are. We’re obviously doing better. You don’t need a graph to know that. But we started nearly identical through 8 games, then diverged for 5-6, then went on a somewhat parallel rise.
What we need to hope — and this seems likely — is for a second big divergence the rest of the way. The team got worse at the end of last season, earning only 13 points in the last 13 games (including only 4 points in the next 7 games), which was below the season average, which led to lots of discussions of whether the midseason replacements did the team any good. That’s an issue we don’t really have this year and it seems we’re in a nice period of stability.
2015 Weekly Update July 18 – MLS Playoff Odds at Other Sites
There are a couple of sites that do a decent job of predicting playoff odds.
The first is
It is already updated through last night and gives us 94% of making the playoffs, and 54% of finishing first or second.
The second site is http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html. It has lots of fun ways to break things down, including a much more detailed playoff line breakdown. It’s problem is (1) it does not update regularly and sometimes not for a few weeks, and (2) even when it is on schedule it does the week on an annoying Sunday thru Saturday basis even though every MLS week ends on Sunday. It is currently now up-to-date through Friday. For us that means it has the SKC game but not yesterday and has the playoff chances at 88.8% which is really in line with the other site. But it also shows, for example, that if we finish with 55 points there is a 61% chance we finish first in the East and 1% chance of Supporters Shield. At 59 points there would be a 24.2% chance we win SS. One of the most fun features here is showing the effect that the result of upcoming games will have on playoff chances. But because it is behind schedule that’s not as much fun. For example, it says a loss to the Impact would knock the playoff chances down 2.9% and a win raises it 7.2%.