Archives for July 2016
The interesting part to me about these graphs is how similar the lines are. We’re obviously doing better. You don’t need a graph to know that. But we started nearly identical through 8 games, then diverged for 5-6, then went on a somewhat parallel rise.
What we need to hope — and this seems likely — is for a second big divergence the rest of the way. The team got worse at the end of last season, earning only 13 points in the last 13 games (including only 4 points in the next 7 games), which was below the season average, which led to lots of discussions of whether the midseason replacements did the team any good. That’s an issue we don’t really have this year and it seems we’re in a nice period of stability.
There are a couple of sites that do a decent job of predicting playoff odds.
The first is
It is already updated through last night and gives us 94% of making the playoffs, and 54% of finishing first or second.
The second site is http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html. It has lots of fun ways to break things down, including a much more detailed playoff line breakdown. It’s problem is (1) it does not update regularly and sometimes not for a few weeks, and (2) even when it is on schedule it does the week on an annoying Sunday thru Saturday basis even though every MLS week ends on Sunday. It is currently now up-to-date through Friday. For us that means it has the SKC game but not yesterday and has the playoff chances at 88.8% which is really in line with the other site. But it also shows, for example, that if we finish with 55 points there is a 61% chance we finish first in the East and 1% chance of Supporters Shield. At 59 points there would be a 24.2% chance we win SS. One of the most fun features here is showing the effect that the result of upcoming games will have on playoff chances. But because it is behind schedule that’s not as much fun. For example, it says a loss to the Impact would knock the playoff chances down 2.9% and a win raises it 7.2%.