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NYCFC’s Home Record Problem May 31, 2016

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  1. NYCFC’s  problem is that the Mean Number of Wins in Home Games for playoff teams is double our current rate. To do that over the remaining games means winning 6 of the remaining 9 home games. I find assuming that to be tough, so we’re left guessing how close we get to that and how far the Away record drops. Here is a scenario that works:
    Home 5-3-1 16 Pts 1.78 PPG
    Away 4-4-3 15 Pts 1.36 PPG

    Those 31 points added to the current 18 gets us to 49. One way or another you have to figure we need to win at least 9 of our remaining 20 games. It could require more.
    Think of that as 4.5 wins per 10 games.
    Last year we earned 2.94 Wins per 10 games.
    Last year in the last 21 games after the winless streak we managed 4.28 Wins per 10 games.
    This year we are sitting at 2.86 Wins per 10 games.

    Basically to hit the playoffs we likely need to do a bit better than we did after the winless streak last year. It’s not out of reach. But it’s also something we’ve never done. Both are true, which is one of the reasons it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

 

Yet More Home/Away Thoughts May 30, 2016

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  1. Last year NYCFC was 17th in the league-wide Supporters Shield race, but 19th in points won at home.
    This year NYCFC is currently 10th for Supporters Shield, and 20th in home record (TFC has fewer points but better PPG and many fewer GP).

    It’s worth mentioning that we’re first in Away record also, so 10th overall is right where we should be I suppose.

 

2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers | Page 5 | NYCFC Forums

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In the last 5 seasons of MLS, all 34 game seasons, here is every team that had a .500 road record or better, with their Road Points, Home Points, and Total:

 Rd Hm Tot
2015 VAN 24 29 53
2014 SKC 25 24 49
2014 SEA 27 37 64
2013 SKC 28 30 58
2012 SKC 29 34 63
2012 SJ 30 36 66
2011 SEA 32 31 63
2011 LAG 26 41 67

Here’s what I notice. Outside of 2014 SKC, they are all really good teams. Vancouver 2015 has the next lowest point total and it finished 3rd in Supporters shield. Also, 6 of the 8 had more Home points than Road Points. For teams like us, just looking to sneak into the playoffs somehow, 2014 SKC is our only model.

Here is our current Home/Road Point Record Split:
Home 1-2-5 8pts
Away 3-2-1 10 Pts
Here’s how we get to 2014 SKC totals:
Home: 5-3-1 16 Pts 1.78 PPG
Road 4-4-3 15 Pts 1.36 PPG

You can adjust that. Maybe you want to flip a win between Home and Away. If you think it will take fewer than 49 points to make the playoffs, play with it that way. I think there’s a decent chance that 46 or 47 makes it, but there’s still not a lot of wiggle room.
If NYCFC doesn’t manage to keep up it’s Away success, and slips to just one game under on the Road for the year, here is what we are looking at as an example to get to 49 Points.
Home 6-2-1 19 Pts 2.11 PPG
Away 3-5-3 12 Pts 1.091 PPG

Current PPG Standings:

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So the current Playoff line looks like 42 points. If that sounds encouraging remember that it started May at 38.
Ignoring Home/Away here is what we need to do to reach assorted point totals:

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I guess I think we’ve shown ourselves weak at home for a full season plus while our road success is 6 games. So that’s why I fear that.
But let met get uncharacteristically positive.
Last year both our records were bad, and Home was better than Away, as is normal. But, relative to our league position our Away Record last year was better than Home. We finished 17th in the league overall, but we had the 19th best Home record, and were tied for 13th Best Away record. So I guess there’s some basis for saying our Away record so far this year is not a fluke. I hope so.
PS: We actually had better Away records than the Galaxy, Dynamo, and RSL last year (plus some of the expected bottom-dwellers). We tied with DC and Toronto on Away points.

What it comes down to is simple: either you think we will jump to getting 1.6 or more PPG at home in our last 9 home games after getting 1.0 PPG in our first 8, or you don’t.
Alternatively, you think we will continue to have the best Away record in MLS ( or at least top few), or you don’t.

Or some combo of the above Plus the East (excluding NYCFC) has lots and lots of ties and continues losing to the West.

None of those is crazy talk, but some require many parts to go right.

I Don’t Think NYCFC Makes The Playoffs – May 29, 2016

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  1. I don’t think we’re making the playoffs. I’m ready to say that at the end of May, and even though we’re in 4th place.
    I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my position.

    Currently, bad teams in MLS do reasonably well at home. Since we have been in the league, only 2 teams have a PPG at home below 1.5. Chicago is 1.42 and NYCFC is 1.20. Orlando is 1.54, and everyone else is at 1.6 and above. Playoff teams average 2.0.

    You go back a few years and you see some really spectacularly bad Home teams. Toronto and Chivas were just horrible a few years ago. We’re not at that level, but right now we are the worst.

    Going back at least 10 years, no team has made the MLS playoffs without a winning record at home. But we’re only 1 game under, so flipping that won’t be hard, right? To get a winning record at home, we must go
    6-4-0
    6-3-1
    5-3-2
    Or get even fewer losses, maybe with more ties. We still have to play at home against
    RSL, PHI, RB, COL, LAG, DAL

    Plus 4 teams easier to beat but if we lose to just 1 of the 4 we really need to rack up wins against the better 6. To date, the longest we have ever gone maintaining a record 2 games above .500 at home is a 4 games stretch last August-September . Maybe we don’t lose more than 3 or 4 home games, or maybe we become the first team to make the playoffs without a winning home record. Any of these can happen. But recognize that it’s either doing far, far better than we have ever done at home against really tough opponents, or making history without a winning home record.

    So maybe we make it to one game over 50% at home. In the last 5 years of a 34 game season only one team, SKC in 2014, has made the playoffs with a winning differential of merely +1 at home. Every other playoff team has had at least 3 more wins than losses at home. 2014 SKC made the playoffs by having 8 road wins. In the last 5 years only 5 teams have managed 8 or more road wins. It’s doable, but it is not a mundane accomplishment.

    If we make the playoffs we either
    1. have an extremely dramatic change in our H/A record to date, or
    2. Make MLS history. I’m all for making history, if that’s what it takes, but I won’t minimize it now and certainly not if the team pulls it off.

    I still hope we win our next 3 at home, and we’re 2 games over just like that. Even then it’s a tough road to maintain it. And it has to start immediately.

     

     

     

Grand Unified theory of NYCFC’s Struggles in 2016 through May

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  1. Here’s the Grand Unified Theory of Everything, which I’m not sure if I believe it or not. I’m definitely interested in opinions and feedback.

    1. Last year we scored 32 Home goals and 16 Away. This year, with an extra home game so far, we have only 7 Home goals and 11 Away.
    2. We were shutout only twice all last year at home. This year it has happened 3 times in 7 games.
    3. Theory: This could be due to our playing from the back on a small field. At home, being patient slow and from the back we are especially susceptible to teams who either park the bus or press. A small field makes both of these easier to play.
    4. Our 14 wins over 2 seasons include 10 by one goal and 4 by two goals.
    5. This means we almost never have room for error and are always susceptible to having a win become a tie, or a tie become a loss, based on one fluky, weird, random, goal.
    6. We are the kings of conceding stupid, fluky goals, and set piece goals.
    7. This is especially true at home.
    8. Theory: Small fields favors offense on set pieces and when a team wins the ball on a high press (because it’s likely that much closer to goal). Small field hurts offense in regular open play, especially with slow buildup.
    9. Overall, the small field takes our weaknesses and faults and makes them worse. Combine (1) the fact that we never blow anyone away, and (2) are scoring much less at home this year which amplifies (1), with (3) our tendency to concede on weird plays and set pieces and you have who we are right now.

    Notes on the above:
    1. and 2. These could also be just a small sample and random chance.
    3. A small field would probably help all defensive strategies and hurt all offense. This is a game of space. Total Football means making the field bigger when you have the ball and smaller when you don’t. But our offense is more focused than ever on waiting for holes to open. There are fewer holes on a small field.
    4. I also do not know if this ratio is unusual. Most games probably have goal differentials of 0, 1 or 2. But we have none greater than 2 (on the winning side) and the ratio of 1 and 2 seems heavy towards 1 for us. Regardless of whether it is normal or unusual, we have to deal with it.
    6. I have to evidence of this but it seems to be a truth universally acknowledged.
    7. I also can’t say this is true with certainty, but this year we have had:
    Toronto – Free kick conceded from wide of the box
    Orlando – Saunders tap into Larins face
    New England – Free kick deflection off Mendoza
    Chicago – free kick conceded – correctly ruled offsides but we were still lucky to get that called
    Montreal – Free kick conceded from wide of the box
    Vancouver – goal conceded under pressure while playing from the back
    Red Bull Wedding – 4 corners and 1 free kick
    That’s at least one every home game.

 

MLS Writers On NYCFC’s Home Woes

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  1. Has NYCFC’s home form put their playoff hopes in jeopardy?

    More concerns about NYCFC’s Home record at MLSoccer.com.

    “Of the 52 teams to make the playoffs since MLS moved to a 34-game schedule in 2011, only two have won fewer than seven home games. Those teams were the 2011 Colorado Rapids and Sporting Kansas City in 2014.
    Those teams each finished with six wins at home, meaning NYCFC would have to win half of their home games the rest of the season to match them, which may be difficult with Real Salt Lake (6/2), Colorado (7/30), LA (8/20) and Dallas (9/17) still set to visit. Not to mention, another round looms with the Red Bulls (7/3).”

    There’s even more. I think they overstate what we have to do, because they ignore our 3 wins in only 6 away games so far. But to be sure, the tension between our position in the standings and our home record is real and will not sustain itself. RTWT as the hip bloggers used to say in 2003.

 

Skating at the Margins of Home/Away History – NYCFC May 26, 2016

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Currently, our home PPG is 1.0 and Away is 1.67. If we do that to the end of the season we get 45 points. we would also have a season for the ages, opposite of all home away trends by an absurd amount. So I agree we will revert to the mean.
If we revert to the mean we do better. Last year playoff teams earned 2.04 PPG at home and 1.06 at home.
If we do that from this point we get 49 points.

If you’re not concerned that we might be more likely to drop our Away performance towards average than to double our home PPG, I admire your sunny disposition. I still think we can do it, but we’ll be skating at the margins of history if we do.

NYCFC Weekly Update May 23, 2016

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  1. t seems I haven’t put up the PPG chart in a bit. I think I didn’t do it when we were in regular first place because we were never quite in PPG first place and I was hoping we’d make it after the next game. Well, after 1 point in our last 2 games, which is not good but not disastrous, we are back where we were the last time I did put up the chart: 4th place. That was after the DC win. Since then we had the great Portland win, the Toronto tie with our B-team, and the fiasco against RB. And almost nothing changed:

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    Philly in first, NYC in 4th. Orlando 5. RB 6. DCU 7. All the same.
    The Canadian teams flipped 2 and 3, and 8-10 squiggled a bit but who cares.
    So again. after the most momentous week in team history. After the biggest high and lowest low we are pretty much in the same place, which is pretty good but not great.

    Plus I can’t believe nobody said this yet, but how weird, amazing, glorious, and hideous is it that we had what was likely NYCFC’s best win ever and certainly it’s worst loss in the same damn week. With a Tie in between. For balance.

    You will notice the projected playoff line has moved up a lot from 34 to 42, which seems a lot more normal. Coincidentally, it is exactly where it was last year the first time I put up a PPG projection when the Revs were in 6th with a 41.82 projected points.

    I should probably remind everyone what I also said then which is that this projection has a very low confidence level and to the extent it points at anything it is the better than 50% line, meaning if you’re above it there’s a sort of 50% chance you’ll make the playoffs. I myself think the line will be between 42 and 49, which is based on a combination of history, hunches, and numbers. If I’m right we’re not really safe at our current level and need to get better because I think the rest of the East will improve. As a guide to what that would mean for us, here’s the current chart of what NYC needs to do in its remaining 21 games to reach some likely point totals.

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    Chin up everyone.