City Blues By The Numbers

After starting the season 5-0-2, 17 points in 7 games, NYCFC needed to get just 43 points in 27 games, or 1.5926 PPG, to reach the 60 point mark. As late as Game 21, NYC was at 2.048 PPG with a 13-4-4 record and 43 points. They needed just 17 points in 13 games or 1.3077 PPG to get 60 points. After getting only 10 points in 11 games, that is now impossible. The most NYCFC can get is 59 points, if it wins both of its remaining games. Here are all the possibilities.

Distractions

NYCFC’s PPG before the Vieira to Arsenal rumor 2.43
NYCFC’s PPG since
– the Arsenal rumor 1.43
– the Nice rumor 1.53
– Dome took over 1.47
– Eloi first took the field 0.60

This Bad Run

The projected final point total went down by 13. Last year’s slump was either 11 points and 2 wins in 9 games, or 7 points and 1 win in 7, depending on how you define when it started. The team PPG dropped in the 7 games from 1.852 to 1.676 for a 0.175 (math seems off due to rounding) reduction.
This year the slump to date is an easily identified 9-games (so far) with just 7 points and 1 win in the 9 games. The team PPG dropped in the 7 games from 2.048 to 1.667 for a 0.381 reduction.
Last year’s slump coincided with injury to Villa, the team’s only reliable goal scorer in the second half of the season. This year, the slump has a multitude of arguable causes, which both diffuses responsibility yet should be more damning.

Vieira, Torrent, and the Blame Game

NYCFC played 15 games under Viera and now has 15 under Torrent. The Viera schedule included 8 Away and 7 Home, and the Away games included SKC, Portland, LAFC, Red Bulls and Atlanta. NYC also faced Atlanta at home, which was the toughest Home matchup given Atlanta’s Away record this year. Dome’s schedule has had 8 Home and 7 Away. The toughest matchups were Away to Seattle, Columbus and Philly, none ranked higher than 4th in their conference.

NYC under Vieira lost 3 games, earned 28 points, scored 30 goals and conceded 20.
NYC under Torrent lost 5 games, earned 22 points, scored 22 goals and conceded 19.
The idea that losing Herrera had no effect on team defense but killed the team’s offense is counterintuitive at best.

You can blame it on Viera jumping ship, Dome unable to pick up on the fly, or bad luck.
You can blame it on the rain, blame it on Rio, or you can blame it on me Terry, it don’t matter to me now.
But the team scored 27% fewer goals against a much, much easier schedule since Dome took over, and won 21% fewer points.

The Company We Keep
Other teams with one win in the last 9 games, or worse.
Chicago* (one win in eleven) 20
Houston (one win in twelve) 18
New England (one win in twelve) 16
Orlando (one win in twenty) 21
Honorable Mentions
Minnesota** 17 and San Jose 23, both one win in eight games.
The other number next to each team is their place in the Supporters’ Shield standings.

* Hey, we play them this week. Maybe there’s hope.
** Hey, we play them this week, too. OTOH, six of their last 8 have been Away and we play them in Minnesota.

Playoff Seeding Update
Three point lead on Columbus; four point lead on Philadelphia. All three teams have 4 games left.
Columbus
NYC has 1 more win. If they tie on points they likely end up tied on wins as well. NYC currently has a +12 GD advantage.
Philadelphia
Teams are tied on wins. If they tie on points the Union likely ends up with more wins. NYC currently has a +15 GD advantage, FWIW.
Schedule
Home games in CAPS:
NYCFC plays CHICAGO, Minnesota, DC United, PHILADELPHIA
Columbus plays PHILADELPHIA, Montreal, Orlando, MINNESOTA
Philadelphia plays Columbus, MINNESOTA, RED BULLS, New York City

The Columbus schedule is easiest. The NYC and Philadelphia schedules are close in difficulty, with the advantage to NYC since they play each other in the Bronx (or maybe Queens). But it is best if the Union is disposed of before then. Best case scenario is if NYC can beat Chicago midweek, and Columbus beats the Union on the weekend. That’s a 7-point lead over the Union with 2 games for each before the H2H on decision day. Then, if NYC can just draw 1 of the 2 Away games, the Union would need to win both of its home games, including against the Red Bulls, to have a shot. A win and a draw for the Union in those games would leave them 4 points back going into the last game. If NYC could win one of its Away games (plus the best case scenario) then it will have clinched over the Union. Basically, any combination of NYC wins and Union losses that adds up to 3 will clinch*** 4th Place for NYC, and that almost has to start with a win over Chicago on Wednesday, and if so, it could wrap up by Saturday.
Maybe I will go Wednesday night.
*** Technically, DC, Montreal and New England have to be dealt with also, but the scenarios where any of them survive while the Union is eliminated are quite unlikely.

Apart from everything else, I really wanted 60 points this year, regardless of where the team finished. And it seemed so likely for so long.

Short update with no NYCFC action this week.

NYCFC has just 6 points in its last 8 games. The last 8-game stretch as bad or worse than that was in the club’s first season, 2015, when they finished at 1.08 PG overall. For those wondering, the first 8 games of 2016 earned 7 points.
NYCFC has 33 points in its last 23 games. To find a 23-game stretch that bad you also have to go back to 2015. You can select the first 22 games of 2016 plus the last 1 of 2015, which yielded the same 33 points. If you want a 23-game run in one season, you have to go to the last 23 games of 2015, which generated 30 points.

So it is fair to say this team has had both its worst medium length run of games and worst extended run since its first season, which until now has seemed to be an aberration which never again needed to be revisited. NYCFC has never been so bad for so long since Kreis and a hideous roster forced on us by rules that were abandoned immediately afterwards.

But it is also fair to point out that the team’s best 6-game run this year came at the very beginning, which lends itself to corresponding longer runs of poor, or at least mediocre play. Historically, this team has previously always had its best run around midseason.

Best 6-games of 2015 – 13 points games 14-19
Best 6-games of 2016 – 15 points games 14-19
Best 6-games of 2017 – 13 points games 15-20
Best 6-games of 2018 – 16 points games 1-6
(A note about all such streaks- there is often some wiggle room to choose the best 6 on either side of a 3-4 game core).

I don’t think there is any reason why the best streak happened in games 1-6 this year instead of the usual time. So maybe that’s driving the perception of 2018. Yes, you can point to the coaching instability and transition, which coincidentally started with the Arsenal rumors after Game 7 as the reason for the falloff (and I have so pointed), but that also cannot be the reason why the club had its best ever 6-games just before those rumors started. The club could easily have been its regular pretty good self during those early games, instead of its best ever 6-games.

It is also interesting that the club had its best ever second-best-non-overlapping-6-game-run in 2018. Games 16-21 (right around mid-season again) earned 15 points, which is also as good or better than the first best 6-game sets of all prior seasons. The second-best-6-games in 2015-17 earned 9, 11, and 13 points in order.

One more thing: the team’s PPG in the games left after you back out the best-6 and next-best-6 is as follows:
2015 0.68
2016 1.27
2017 1.41
2018 1.06

This is a bit unfair to 2018 because it has only 17 games instead of 22 after excluding that pair of 6-game sequences. Maybe the club does get better in the last 5 games left and this improves. But for now, it is fair to say that in 2018 there has been a greater disparity between the best and worse, and more of a roller coaster effect, than any year after 2015, which is pretty much an outlier that I think most agree can be ignored for purposes of interesting comparisons.

Here are the charts. NYCFC is down to 6th in PPG, though just barely behind LAFC.

Remember when 64 points seemed a more than reasonable goal? Now it is the best that can be done.

The rolling 5-game PPG tells an ugly story.

Columbus has an opening to catch NYC. Philadelphia has an outside shot. If the Union wins both extra games – which is by no means a gimme – it is still 3 points back. The DC-Montreal-Revs race looks like it could come down to the final weekend.

Final note: NYC has the hardest remaining schedule except for Colorado. NYC’s H/A adjusted opponents’ PPG is 1.60. NYCFC’s weakest Away Game opponent is Minnesota at 1.92 PPG. They also face Montreal 2.00 PPG and DC 2.20 PPG.

1. NYCFC started the season with an unbeaten 5-0-2 run of 7 games for 2.43 PPG. Since then, they are just 9-7-4 in the most recent 20 games, for 1.55 PPG, which would be just 52.7 points if done over a full season. A playoff team, but worse than last year. Still, the first 7 games count, and you should not discount them just because of timing. Remove any club’s best 7-game stretch from the season and they look much worse.
2. NYCFC started the season with an unbeaten 5-0-2 run of 7 games for 2.43 PPG. Then the Patrick Vieira to Arsenal rumors started. Since then, the team’s PPG is 0.88 lower than it was before Patrick became distracted. The club never really recovered.
3. NYCFC started the season with 1.91 PG through 11 games, of which only 4 were at home. It was a brutal schedule to begin, and NYCFC managed 2 Away wins, plus impressive road draws against Atlanta and LAFC (with a clinker in Harrison mixed in). Still, they were poised to start a run through the easiest part of their schedule when the Vieira to Nice rumors started on May 15. Since then they earned just 1.69 PPG despite playing 2 more Home than Away games.
4. Patrick Vieira had the club playing well through the first 15 games before he left. The team PPG was at 1.87, and his last game, though only a draw, was perhaps the best game the team played all year, thoroughly dominating Atlanta in Yankee Stadium in all areas except finishing. Since then the team has tread water under new coach Dome Torrent, earning a respectable if mundane 1.67 PPG.
5. NYCFC dominates at home, benefiting from an extreme home field advantage due to the uniquely small field. Conversely, they flounder away, where they concede 3.85 times as many goals per game as they do at home [0.54 GA/g Home, 2.07 GA/g Away].
6. NYCFC started extremely well, but then settled into a pattern of winning at home while struggling on the road, until a series of ridiculous travel games, injuries, and red cards, cursed them to a streak of 5 points in 6 games, and facing 2 upcoming games with further players unavailable due to international call-ups. For the first time they are lower than they were after the same number of games in 2017, and also are at risk of finishing below their point total from the year before, which has never happened to date. The circumstances are a combination of bad luck, possibly poor training methods, and poor roster construction over-reliant on injury-prone players and mid-range national team roster fillers more than any issues regarding the coaching staff or player performance.

😢 😟 😨

It’s not pretty for finishing top 2.
Atlanta has 17 points from its previous 8 games. If they get 17 from the final 8 coming up, NYC has to win every game to pass them. But, Atlanta has Away games at DC, RBNY, and TFC. If they lose all 3 and tie one somewhere, that’s only 13 points, and NYC needs to finish . . . . . . 6-1-1 just to draw even on points, then probably have the same number of wins, and likely lose on GD. Also note that Atlanta lost 4 games all year, and losing 3 of the final 8 represents a major slump. It can happen. Worse can happen. But these are major hurdles.
Viewed game-by-game, RB might have an easier schedule than Atlanta, with the toughest games being Away in DC, and hosting Toronto (poor road record but finally in decent form) and Atlanta. They also have some middling Away games in Montreal and Philly. The Impact are above average at Home, though not by a lot. The Union are exactly mid-table on Home form, but seem improved. The Red Bulls’ other 3 games are easy: home to Houston and Orlando (7 Away points and 6, respectively) and travel to San Jose (8 points in 12 games). A poor 4-3-1 finish for RB is 65 points, and NYC must finish 5-0-3 or better to exceed that. Red Bull schedule is kind of crazy right now, after hosting Houston they go to Montreal on Saturday. Five games in 15 days. This could be NYC’s opening, but if they don’t drop points here…

Most likely, NYCFC needs one of Atlanta and RB to lose all its remaining tough games, plus suffer an upset or 2, to have a meaningful chance to overtake them. Also, a 7-game winning streak like Seattle has going would help (though still not guarantee anything).

It feels as if NYC has been treading water since the start of the season, but look at it this way. NYC started 5-0-2 (2.43 PPG). Since then the PPG over the next 19 is 1.63. That is a significant drop, but besides Atlanta and RB, only Dallas, SKC and LAFC are better over the entire season (and LAFC barely so). If you excised those teams’ best 7-game stretch it would get much uglier for them. In sum, NYC’s season disappoints because Atlanta and the Red Bulls are heading to possible all time great seasons at the same time in the same conference.

Who do you want to face in a first round playoff matchup? The Union seem likely to grab the 5th spot, with a puncher’s chance at catching the Crew. The mostly likely 6th place finishers are DC, the Impact, and Toronto. 538 ranks their chances in that order, with a big gap after DC. I know some people have shown concern over facing Toronto. Even DC, though much weaker on the road, could be scary given their surge. It could be that the best thing NYC can do to improve its chances would be to win both games against DC and make it a little more likely that Montreal slips in.

This week I’m just going to drop the charts and graphs and then offer some quick hits, mostly on other clubs.

First, the NYCFC notes: the graphs show that the 2018 lines have dipped down to meet the 2017 lines on a couple of graphs, but 2018 still has a slight lead with 47 points through 25 games compared to 46 last year. Also, in 2017, games 25-27 were the high point. After a solid but unspectacular start, the 2017 team won 8 of 11 games from game 15 to 25, then had a draw (away at RBA) and a win (home against SKC in the rain), then won only once in the last 7 chances.

Turning to our rivals, the chart immediately above shows that although the schedule timing is skewed, the Red Bulls and Atlanta have perfectly matched point totals starting with game 21 for each team and this has maintained through game 24, with Atlanta winning a game 25 the Red Bulls haven’t played yet. Just a reminder that the win NYCFC fans so desperately want this week also helps Atlanta.

DC has already made it closer sooner than I expected, with the one big win — based on strength of opponent — over Portland midweek, and another big win — based on rival for the playoff spot — over New England last night. I’m sticking with my prediction that DC does not make it though right it looks like I will be wrong. Their biggest issue could be having games stacked on top of games. From the end of July through mid-October they average a double game week about every other week with one international break mixed in. Last year Atlanta stumbled near the end of a similar schedule.Still, they are in solid shape.

Looking West, and speaking of Portland, after not losing for 15 games they have lost 3 straight, while the once stumbling SKC has won 3 straight. Seattle have climbed over the playoff line based on PPG if not actual standings, and are the latest flavor of the week in that conference. Meanwhile Dallas just keep churning and staying on on top, with only 5 losses and quality wins over LAFC, Atlanta, and SKC.