Switchin’ To Glide – – NYCFC Weekly Update MLS Week 24 August 19, 2019

NYCFC has 6 of the last 10 at Home, which is nice, but the next 6 games are where the team needs to accumulate wins and points. Five of the next six are at home, and the lone Away game in that stretch is against Vancouver, which has a losing record at home right now. Yes, that game involves transcontinental travel, and other games will be on short rest, and the Red Bulls are always tough, and NYCFC’s record at home against New England is worse than against any team outside of Portland. But there is no denying these games are easier than the last 4 games of the season. None of the 5 teams NYC will host at Yankee Stadium in this stretch has an Away PPG better than 1.15 PPG. That’s New England’s Away PPG, and it’s also worth mentioning that the Revs are undefeated Away since firing Friedel (3-0-4). But these are still 5 poor Away teams with an average of fewer than 3 Away wins per team. NYCFC probably needs 15+ points (OK maybe 13 or 14 if other things go well but that’s pushing it) from these 6 games to have a shot at finishing first as it heads into the final 4 games, which include hosting Atlanta, and Away to Dallas, New England and Philadelphia.

It looks like a 3-way race for first place in the East right now.

The Atlanta win over Portland in Portland was huge. According to 538, that game by itself dropped NYC’s odds of coming in first from 51% to 43% (though still slightly higher than Atlanta at 42%). Before that game Atlanta had won 4 of 5 in league play but all 4 wins were at home, their road form has been very poor, and the 5 Stripes faced a schedule in which 6 of their final 9 were away. But they just won a very tough road game on short rest and transcontinental travel and raised their Away PPG from 0.82 to 1.00. They still have 5 Away of their remaining 8 but those include Orlando, whom they always seem to beat, and Cincinnati. Their harder Away games are Philadelphia and NYC. The wildcard is their game at Montreal, where the Impact are not invincible but reasonably tough, and Montreal is a wildly unpredictable team this year. By the way: Atlanta has 12 wins by shutout. NYC and Montreal are the only teams to score on Atlanta and lose.

The Union have just 7 games remaining. 4 Home 3 Away. But their Home games are fairly difficult, hosting DC, Atlanta, LAFC and NYC. The Union’s Away games are to the Red Bulls, San Jose (much tougher at Home than Away) and Columbus.

Based on schedule alone. I think Philadelphia slips a little. Atlanta still has those road games, and the question is whether the win over Portland is an outlier or a early indicator of a new trend in which they start winning Away. NYC’s schedule is comparatively soft, and if they slip I think it will be on performance. Also, I’m not concerned too much with the midweek game situation and short rest for NYC. NYCFC has 6 remaining games on short rest. That is a lot, but so does Atlanta. And every time NYC plays on short rest from now to the end of the season, its opponent also will be on similar rest, within a day at most. NYC never plays on short rest against a team on 6 or 7 days rest the rest of the season.

Nothing matters but the weekend/ From a Tuesday point of view.

We are close to surpassing the bottom rungs of the future possibilities table.

NYCFC 2019 still trails 2018, but the opportunity to do better is clearly there.

I took last week off which was a double game week. So here are the mythical standings in which every team in the East has played the same number of games for 22, 23 and 24 games:

Finally, the magic number to clinch not finishing last is 2, so 1 NYCFC win or Cincy loss or Cincy draw manages that. The number to clinch over Columbus is 8, so a win over them midweek, plus 1 additional NYCFC win or Crew loss or Crew draw manages that and is possible this weekend. Next up behind them is Chicago for whom NYC’s magic number is 11.

[…] On August 19, I wrote, “NYCFC probably needs 15+ points (OK maybe 13 or 14 if other things go well but that’s pushing it) from these 6 games to have a shot at finishing first as it heads into the final 4 games, which include hosting Atlanta, and Away to Dallas, New England and Philadelphia.” NYCFC earned 16, and is now in a very strong position, but there is still work to be done. It is a reasonable goal to clinch the East before Decision Day and in doing so make the game Away to Philadelphia meaningless to NYCFC and its place in the standings. The keystone is the game against Atlanta the middle of next week. Beat Atlanta at home, and the remaining Magic Number is 1 for Atlanta. Add any additional result: an Atlanta draw or loss or NYCFC win or draw and NYCFC finishes ahead of the Five Stripes. It is possible such a result could happen even before the Atlanta game. Atlanta is away to Cincinnati Wednesday, host San Jose next weekend, NYC midweek next week, then at Montreal the following weekend, before hosting New England on Decision Day. Chances are Atlanta drops one more point, or NYC picks up one more somewhere. The hypothetically assumed win over Atlanta would also lower the Magic Number against the Union to 5. Before Decision Day, the Union is away to Red Bulls, San Jose and Columbus. They could very well drop 5 points in those games (going 1-1-1 would do it), which would not even require any other results from NYCFC besides Atlanta, though at this point almost no result can be a surprise. Who could foresee Atlanta winning in Portland but falling to Columbus at home? IF NYC can win 1 other game, either at Dallas or New England, then it would just require 1 Philly draw to clinch. Failing to beat Atlanta requires a lot of other things to go right. Besides Atlanta and Philadelphia, NYC plays away to Dallas next weekend and to the Revs in between AT: and PHI. Dallas has lost only 1 home game all year and has 5 home draws. The Revs have 5 home losses, but 4 predate Arena taking over and the other was against LAFC. NYCFC can win either but these are tough road games. Atlanta only has 28 GP so here is the Points at 28 chart: NYC has matched it highest Goal Differential (18) previously set after 23 games in 2018. 2019 has also matched the highest Point Total set in 2017, with 4 games remaining. Every remaining possibility: Finally, when both Maxi and Héber both play, NYC has only 1 loss. When neither plays (which is fortunately much rarer, NYCFC has 1 win. […]

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Coffee’s For Closers – NYCFC Weekly Update MLS Week 28 September 16, 2019 says:

September 16, 2019 at 1:35 pm

[…] On August 19, I wrote, “NYCFC probably needs 15+ points (OK maybe 13 or 14 if other things go well but that’s pushing it) from these 6 games to have a shot at finishing first as it heads into the final 4 games, which include hosting Atlanta, and Away to Dallas, New England and Philadelphia.” NYCFC earned 16, and is now in a very strong position, but there is still work to be done. It is a reasonable goal to clinch the East before Decision Day and in doing so make the game Away to Philadelphia meaningless to NYCFC and its place in the standings. The keystone is the game against Atlanta the middle of next week. Beat Atlanta at home, and the remaining Magic Number is 1 for Atlanta. Add any additional result: an Atlanta draw or loss or NYCFC win or draw and NYCFC finishes ahead of the Five Stripes. It is possible such a result could happen even before the Atlanta game. Atlanta is away to Cincinnati Wednesday, host San Jose next weekend, NYC midweek next week, then at Montreal the following weekend, before hosting New England on Decision Day. Chances are Atlanta drops one more point, or NYC picks up one more somewhere. The hypothetically assumed win over Atlanta would also lower the Magic Number against the Union to 5. Before Decision Day, the Union is away to Red Bulls, San Jose and Columbus. They could very well drop 5 points in those games (going 1-1-1 would do it), which would not even require any other results from NYCFC besides Atlanta, though at this point almost no result can be a surprise. Who could foresee Atlanta winning in Portland but falling to Columbus at home? IF NYC can win 1 other game, either at Dallas or New England, then it would just require 1 Philly draw to clinch. Failing to beat Atlanta requires a lot of other things to go right. Besides Atlanta and Philadelphia, NYC plays away to Dallas next weekend and to the Revs in between AT: and PHI. Dallas has lost only 1 home game all year and has 5 home draws. The Revs have 5 home losses, but 4 predate Arena taking over and the other was against LAFC. NYCFC can win either but these are tough road games. Atlanta only has 28 GP so here is the Points at 28 chart: NYC has matched it highest Goal Differential (18) previously set after 23 games in 2018. 2019 has also matched the highest Point Total set in 2017, with 4 games remaining. Every remaining possibility: Finally, when both Maxi and Héber both play, NYC has only 1 loss. When neither plays (which is fortunately much rarer, NYCFC has 1 win. […]

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