“Some things are so unexpected that no one is prepared for them. “
NYC scored 1.84 Goals per Game through 25 games on August 19, and has 0.86 Goals per Game in the 7 games since then.
NYCFC’s PPG was 1.84 through 25 games, it is 1.43 in the last 7, and down to 1.75 overall.
NYC had 4 draws in its first 25 games and 4 in the last 7.
NYC scored at least 2 goals in 16 of its first 25 games and hasn’t done so once in the last 7.
“I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer.”
Here are some more trends about other teams that might affect NYC:
Atlanta’s last loss was August 23 and that streak covers 8 games.
New England is in 8th Place but until last night it won every home game it played going back to July 5. It was tied for the 4th best Home record in the entire league. Toronto has lost 5 games all season and 2 of those 5 were in Gillette Stadium. New England outplayed Atlanta in New England last night and Atlanta still got a point.
NYC’s next game is in New England, who still is tied for 4th Best Home Record.
Minnesota won 0 of its first 10 Away games, but won 2 of the last 4. Minnesota also is still terrible. They have scored 18 goals in their 14 Away Games. Atlanta last conceded a goal at Home in July, in a different stadium. Atlanta has 6 Clean Sheets in its last 7 games.
Atlanta’s next game after Minnesota is in in Harrison, NJ. It is Atlanta’s last remaining Away game. The Red Bulls have not won Home or Away since August 12. Their tailspin is far worse than NYCFC’s. If they beat Vancouver in the intervening game they have nothing meaningful to play for. If they do not beat Vancouver they will have failed to win for 10 straight games when they face Atlanta.
After Minnesota, Atlanta’s streak of games on short rest ends. They will have 11 days off before playing in New Jersey.
“An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – for support rather than for illumination. “
If Minnesota gets any result in Atlanta next week that will be huge. If Minnesota gets a draw, NYC will go into the final 2 games with a major advantage, but would still have to win both of the last 2 games to be guaranteed second regardless of what Atlanta did from that point. If Minnesota manages a win, NYC has some more flexibility.
If Atlanta beats Minnesota as expected, they will be tied with NYC on points and a massive advantage on tiebreakers. Both will have 2 games left.
October 15: Atlanta Away at Red Bull Arena; NYC Away at New England. Playing in New England is the tougher game. Just ask Toronto. But NYC is a better Away team than Atlanta.
October 22: Atlanta hosts Toronto; NYC hosts Columbus. Toronto is making MLS history. They also have the best Away record in the league. Atlanta has the third best home record in the league. The entire league is looking forward to this game. I consider it a toss-up. Toronto will be playing for nothing that matters, except maybe pride and sending a message against a potential playoff opponent. They could rest their best and just try to avoid injury, or go all out.
- If NYC comes out of October 15 3 points behind Atlanta then NYC cannot catch up given the tiebreakers.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 2 points behind Atlanta NYC gets second by beating Columbus and an ATL loss.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 1 point behind Atlanta NYC gets second by beating Columbus and an ATL draw or loss.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 even with Atlanta NYC gets second with any better result than Atlanta. A win against Columbus means nothing without some result for Toronto.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 1 point ahead, NYC gets second with a win, or a draw and Atlanta draw or loss, or a loss and Atlanta loss.
- If NYC comes out of Oct 15 2 or 3 points ahead, NYC gets second with a win, or a draw and Atlanta draw or loss, or a loss and Atlanta loss or draw.
“Current trends always seem like they will go on forever, until they don’t.”
Back in mid-August, nobody expected NYC’s to go 7 games without scoring 2 goals, or that the Red Bulls would not only slump but completely stop winning, or that Minnesota would win 2 of 4 Away games, or that Atlanta would have 6 shutouts in 7 games.
NYC needs a turnaround. Predicting it would be foolish. Being surprised if it happens would be even dumber.
Let’s hope.
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