NYCFC 2016 Weekly Update By The Numbers – MLS Week 30 October 2 UPDATED With Full Weekend Results

One East Conference game remains this weekend, but it has a limited effect on the NYCFC possibilities so why wait. I will add a brief update when the Orlando | Montreal game ends.

What We Definitely Know

With two games to go many things are becoming certain or at least clear, while others are just as muddled as ever.  Let’s start with what we know:

1. NYC is not only guaranteed a home playoff game (which requires finishing no lower than 4th place), they cannot finish below third place in the East. The 4th Place DCU trail NYC by 8 points and also have 2 games left. The 6th Place Impact have 3 games remaining and trail by 10 points. Neither can catch NYC.
2. The race for 1st place in the East is down to 3 teams. The Red Bulls have the inside track, being tied with NYC and owning the second-level Goal Differential tie-breaker by 10 goals. Toronto has wasted its opportunities and now needs to climb over both NY teams to regain First Place.

Top Of The East Scenarios

Next, let’s move on to the easy to understand scenarios. That also involves winning the East, or at least finishing second and getting a first round playoff bye.  Rather than explore all 2-game scenarios, let’s focus on where we will stand based on the next set of games in two weeks.

1. We’ll begin by looking down. NYC leads TFC by 2 points.
   1. If NYC wins and Toronto loses or ties, NYC clinches second place. Even with a TFC tie NYC will lead by 4 points with one game to go.
   2. If NYC wins and TFC wins (or both tie or both lose), NYC can achieve at least second place if in the final games
      1. NYC wins, no matter what TFC does
      2. NYC ties and TFC ties or loses, or
      3. both NYC and TFC lose
      4. But if NYC ties or loses its final game, and TFC win in its last game, they will be tied and TFC will own the Goal Differential tie breaker.
2. Now let’s punch up. Both NY teams are tied by the Red Bulls, as noted, own the tie-breaker:
   1. If next round NYC win and RB lose or tie, OR if NYC ties and RB lose:
      1. Then in the next week NYC finishes first if NYC win no matter what RB does
      2. Or if NYC draws and RB lose in the last week
   2. If next round both teams win, or tie, or lose:
      1. The NYC finishes ahead of RB of they get more points in the last game than RB
   3. If next round draws and RB win
      1. Then in the final week NYC can finish ahead if it wins and RB lose
   4. If next round NYC loses and RB wins
      1. Then RB has effectively guaranteed finishing ahead of NYC based on the GD tie-breaker, barring a 10+ goal differential turnaround in the last week.

The scenarios between the Red Bulls and Toronto are the same as between TFC and NYC, except the GD is closer, but the Red Bulls still have the edge.

Supporters Shield

NYCFC’s chances are all but mathematically done. They trail Dallas by 5 points with 2 games to play,  and are tied with Colorado who has 4 games to play. Plus there is the tie with the Red Bulls.

CONCACAF Champions League

1. NYC gets a spot if it wins the East.
2. AFter that it gets very complicated.  Another spot becomes available if Dallas win Supporters Shield or MLS Cup. Two spots become available if Dallas wins both.  If TFC finishes first in the East, now seemingly unlikely, another spot opens up because TFC can only qualify under different rules for the Canadian CCL spots. Those potentially available spots go to the top US teams in the Supporters Shield race who have not already qualified. So if the Red Bulls or (less likely) TFC finish first in the East, NYC needs to finish as high as possible to try to snag one of those possible spots.  Colorado has a big edge with those 2 extra games, but also has some tough travel and some short rest. But I still give Colorado the edge to finish ahead of NYC.  The clearest and I think easiest path to CCL is winning the East (or the MLS Cup, of course!).

What Has Happened To TFC At Home?

As of Sunday August 6 Toronto had a 4-game winning streak, and faced 4 of its next 5 on the road followed by 5 of its last 6 at home.  TFC went 3-1-1 in the next 5 and seemed on track to have a smooth path to winning the East. Oddly, the only loss came in the only home game in that set. Since then in 4-straight home games TFC is winless with one loss and 3 draws.  Giovinco has missed the last 5 straight games, and that could explain the entire slide by itself, but it also seems TFC has gone off form in more ways than his absence could explain.

The Remaining Schedule for NYRB, NYC, and TFC

All 3 have one home and one away.

Red Bulls have Columbus at Home and Philadelphia Away.
TFC has Montreal Away and Chicago at Home.
NYC has DCU Away and Columbus at Home.

The following are not predictions but statements of probability based on form and my judgment, for whatever that is worth.

The Red Bulls should beat Columbus at Home but lose or draw in Philadelphia.
TFC’s tougher game is against the Impact. Beating Chicago at Home should be near automatic.
NYC has beaten DCU twice this year, but DC has just won 3 straight and since Patrick Mullins joined them they have lost only 2 times in 13 games. The first was his first appearance in which he did not start. The second loss was in NYC. Beating DC in DC with their current form will be tough.  Finishing at home against Columbus should be easy, but the Crew remain the only East Conference team never to lose to NYC.  I almost believe NYC will win out, but neither game is a good matchup for NYC.

What Is To Be Done

With 2 games remaining it is easy to figure out:

The only missing possibility in the chart is a 52 point finish with one loss and one draw.

UPDATE: Montreal’s win moves them up to 4th Place and drops Philadelphia to 6th, who sit on 42 points. Just last week the projected 6th place finish was 42 and now that’s the base with 2 games to go. I am starting to wonder if the playoff line always jumps a few points at the very end of the season.

Supporters Shield and CCL Chart

RSL drops off the list and is replaced by Seattle, who are mathematically out of the SS race and don’t have any real chance at CCL but deserve some recognition for their turnaround.  The only team with a real chabnce of catching Dallas is Colorado, and it will take a lot for that to happen. Colorado has to win their two extra games and keep pace with whatever Dallas does Dallas in the other two to pull ahead.  Colorado plays in the only game next weekend and plays midweek the following week to finally catch up on games played.

A Dallas win of the SS will free up one CCL slot and Colorado seems best positioned to take that. The Rapids are even with both NY teams on points and have 2 extra games to play.  That’s not automatic but it is theirs to win or lose. Even if you assume they lose the game that have to play on 2-days rest they still have a chance to get 9 points while NYC and RB can get at most 6.  Then, whether or not an additional spot opens up for the CCL, NYCFC’s best path is to overtake NYRB, who currently sit ahead on the tie-breaker, and are very unlikely to lose that advantage.