t seems I haven’t put up the PPG chart in a bit. I think I didn’t do it when we were in regular first place because we were never quite in PPG first place and I was hoping we’d make it after the next game. Well, after 1 point in our last 2 games, which is not good but not disastrous, we are back where we were the last time I did put up the chart: 4th place. That was after the DC win. Since then we had the great Portland win, the Toronto tie with our B-team, and the fiasco against RB. And almost nothing changed:
Philly in first, NYC in 4th. Orlando 5. RB 6. DCU 7. All the same.
The Canadian teams flipped 2 and 3, and 8-10 squiggled a bit but who cares.
So again. after the most momentous week in team history. After the biggest high and lowest low we are pretty much in the same place, which is pretty good but not great.
Plus I can’t believe nobody said this yet, but how weird, amazing, glorious, and hideous is it that we had what was likely NYCFC’s best win ever and certainly it’s worst loss in the same damn week. With a Tie in between. For balance.
You will notice the projected playoff line has moved up a lot from 34 to 42, which seems a lot more normal. Coincidentally, it is exactly where it was last year the first time I put up a PPG projection when the Revs were in 6th with a 41.82 projected points.
I should probably remind everyone what I also said then which is that this projection has a very low confidence level and to the extent it points at anything it is the better than 50% line, meaning if you’re above it there’s a sort of 50% chance you’ll make the playoffs. I myself think the line will be between 42 and 49, which is based on a combination of history, hunches, and numbers. If I’m right we’re not really safe at our current level and need to get better because I think the rest of the East will improve. As a guide to what that would mean for us, here’s the current chart of what NYC needs to do in its remaining 21 games to reach some likely point totals.