NYCFC’s problem is that the Mean Number of Wins in Home Games for playoff teams is double our current rate. To do that over the remaining games means winning 6 of the remaining 9 home games. I find assuming that to be tough, so we’re left guessing how close we get to that and how far the Away record drops. Here is a scenario that works:
Home 5-3-1 16 Pts 1.78 PPG
Away 4-4-3 15 Pts 1.36 PPG
Those 31 points added to the current 18 gets us to 49. One way or another you have to figure we need to win at least 9 of our remaining 20 games. It could require more.
Think of that as 4.5 wins per 10 games.
Last year we earned 2.94 Wins per 10 games.
Last year in the last 21 games after the winless streak we managed 4.28 Wins per 10 games.
This year we are sitting at 2.86 Wins per 10 games.
Basically to hit the playoffs we likely need to do a bit better than we did after the winless streak last year. It’s not out of reach. But it’s also something we’ve never done. Both are true, which is one of the reasons it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.