NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers

Last year NYC played 23rd game in late July, had 36 points, and were in First Place in the East with 1.57 PPG and a projected 53-54 point finish. Catching the West leaders for SS was possible but highly unlikely (and didn’t happen). The biggest concern was whether Toronto could catch up at 7 points back but 3 games in hand and most of them at home. Instead TFC slipped after it made up almost all the ground, and RB caught up by not losing again the rest of the season. NYC had a disproportionate 4 of its remaining 11 games against the West. After a weird season with very imbalanced H/A stretches it evened out and NYC faced 5H/6A the rest of the way. NYCFC finished at 54 points.
This year NYC reached Game 23 a week later, has 4 more points and projects to 59-60, but sits in Third Place in the East. Atlanta is behind with one game in hand and most of at home. The West leaders can theoretically catch us and the East leaders but it seems unlikely. NYC has a disproportionate 5 of its remaining 11 games against the West, and again 5H/6A the rest of the way.

The playoff line in the West is higher than the East, but the East’s 5th place team is closer to the top of the West than to the 6th place West team.
Catching Toronto or Chicago will be quite tough, and we will need help. Both have 6 home games to NYC’s 5, and Chicago has one extra game overall. If they win that, they are as far ahead of NYC as Toronto is. Neither has lost at home. Maybe they are due for a loss, or maybe they just won’t lose at home (we play Chicago in Chicago). In the 3 previous seasons only 2016 Colorado finished undefeated at home.
Toronto is 4 points ahead of NYC and has 4 more road draws.

Same matrix as last week. A Home game is tough if against a team ranked 1-3 in its conference. Away is tough if against 1-6:

Atlanta still has all the Home games. Toronto has no tough Home games. RB has by far the most tough games. NYC is essentially in the middle.

That 4-0 loss to Toronto killed the Goal Differential. Looking ahead to tie-breakers, if we tie either Toronto or Chicago, we will probably have more wins overall, but if not and it goes to the second breaker, NYC is 9 behind on GD. Pigeons are also 5 ahead of RB and 3 behind Atlanta (thanks Loons).