Ranking the 2016 MLS Contenders August 1 2016

While it takes 3 things to go perfect for them, Toronto can catch us this week.. They are 6 points back (I’m quite sure this time) and play two games this week. If they win both and we lose in San Jose, we’ll be tied and have the same number of wins. They would be ahead of us on Goal Differential. Both of their games are at home. Midweek they host RSL, who have done well on the road against the East, but coming off their win in Philadelphia yesterday they either will do a lot of travel in a short time or spend the half-week away from home and their regular training routine. Either hurts them. I’m worried about Toronto more than the Union so I’m really hoping RSL can pull out another result here. Toronto then plays the Revs Saturday night. New England will be rested but Toronto has no travel and the Revs are not so good.
For the record, I rank our Eastern rivals in order as
Toronto, just slightly ahead of
Montreal
NJRB
Philadelphia, who are slipping, then a much larger gap to
Orlando, who I think will make the playoffs but has <1% chance of finishing first, and
the rest who don’t make the playoffs.

I think it pretty unlikely we finish lower than third and are at about 60% to finish First or Second and skip the first round of the playoffs.