2016 Weekly NYCFC Numbers Analysis Update July 5

We’re in first place, and tied for first via PPG.
We’re in 4th place Supporters Shield, and tied for 5th by PPG.
We have raised both our Home record and our record against the East to .500.
In 4 tries over 2 years we have never failed to win our third in a row.
Depending on the ties/losses ratio, we can probably make the playoffs with just 6 wins in our last 16.
It is probably reasonable to start thinking about playoff position and not just playoff attainment.

With all that going on, I find the comparison to last year to be one of the least interesting things about this year.

We’ve never had that placement before. One note is that after tomorrow we will have played 3 more games than our closest rival. As we are currently tied in PPG (we won’t be after tomorrow because we cannot earn 1.5 points obviously) it’s hard to say whether that advantages us because we have points in hand or them because they can pass us without needing us to lose. But just keep it in mind until it evens out. Also this isn’t the result of crazy scheduling for Montreal like last year. We will just be tied for most games played (and alone in the East) at 19 and Montreal at 16 is one above the lowest, which is Chicago. It’s just MLS. And while the amount is lower, every other team in the East will have games in hand on us as well.
The playoff projection line is slightly lower than last week but rounded off is still 43. And we have a very nice cushion right now.

A few weeks ago I was beating the drums about Home/Away. Right now I want to push East/West.
NYCFC v East 4-4-6
NYCFC v West 3-1-0
Our entire margin over .500 is from 4 games against the West. It’s a fun anomaly, and has meant some great wins against quality teams, often on the road, but wins against the East are more valuable because they take points away from rivals. I’m not warning of anything here, but it’s good we’ve improved this and if the current run of play continues it should just get better and do us a lot of good.

Our record after 3-game win streaks is poor. Going 3 games out, our record in those 9 games is 1-5-3 for 6 points out of 27. We play our next 3 away against New England, SKC, and — look at that — Montreal.

Finally, here’s what we need to get to assorted point totals. Like I said, 6 wins out of 16 games looks like playoff territory.