“1. It’ll take about 48 points to make the playoffs in the East
2. Each of the last two years only one MLS team has finished with a .500 or better road record. We’ll be charitable & pretend NYCFC (1-2-0 through 3 road games) are that team in 2016, finishing 6-6-5 (23 points). That means they need 25 of a possible 51 home points.
3. Through six home games, NYCFC have taken just 7 of 18 points on offer.
4. Even with a best-case-scenario road performance, NYCFC would have to win six of their final 11 home games to make the playoffs. Currently they’ve won just once in their first six.”
That’s Matt Doyle’s analysis, which on the math is in line with mine above where I said we need 11-12 wins, although more negative than I’m leaning now. Also in the article, Simon Borg says we make it because of Lampard and Nick Rosano signs on to Doyle’s math.
Doyle also says “[P]eople don’t seem to appreciate how disastrous this spring has been for NYCFC.”
Matt Doyle’s math analysis above got me thinking more about our H/A situation. The MLS home advantage is considerable and trouble for us.
Since going to a 34 game schedule in 2011, just 22% of teams have won as many as 6 away games in a season. You can basically assume 4 teams will do it every year. 5 teams did it in 2012. Of the 21 teams to win 6 or more, 12 won exactly 6 and 9 exceeded that.
Unless the playoff line is lower than the expected high 40s, we need 12 or 13 wins overall. We are sitting on 2 wins with 11 home games and 14 away remaining. For us to get 5 wins in the remaining away games would put us in the top 4 road teams in MLS this year, and still means we have to win 5 or 6 of 11 at home to make the playoffs.
I agree with the belief that we are better than our record, but are we that good?
Our best 11 game home stretch ever is 5-3-3 from Game 11 against Chicago on May 15 last year (a draw) to the win against San Jose on September 19 in Game 30.
If we improve on that by one game, to go 6-2-3, that is 21 points from the remaining home games. Adding our current 10 brings us to 31.
To get another 17 and hit 48 we need to go 5-7-2 on the road, which, again, probably puts us in the top 4 road teams in MLS. The math gets much easier if we somehow win 7 or more road games, which happens 9% of the time, and would almost certainly make us one of the top 2 road teams in MLS this year..
Our next 3 games are on the road, and we better start winning.