The interesting part to me about these graphs is how similar the lines are. We’re obviously doing better. You don’t need a graph to know that. But we started nearly identical through 8 games, then diverged for 5-6, then went on a somewhat parallel rise.
What we need to hope — and this seems likely — is for a second big divergence the rest of the way. The team got worse at the end of last season, earning only 13 points in the last 13 games (including only 4 points in the next 7 games), which was below the season average, which led to lots of discussions of whether the midseason replacements did the team any good. That’s an issue we don’t really have this year and it seems we’re in a nice period of stability.
2015 Weekly Update July 18 – MLS Playoff Odds at Other Sites
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There are a couple of sites that do a decent job of predicting playoff odds.
The first is
http://playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html
It is already updated through last night and gives us 94% of making the playoffs, and 54% of finishing first or second.
The second site is http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html. It has lots of fun ways to break things down, including a much more detailed playoff line breakdown. It’s problem is (1) it does not update regularly and sometimes not for a few weeks, and (2) even when it is on schedule it does the week on an annoying Sunday thru Saturday basis even though every MLS week ends on Sunday. It is currently now up-to-date through Friday. For us that means it has the SKC game but not yesterday and has the playoff chances at 88.8% which is really in line with the other site. But it also shows, for example, that if we finish with 55 points there is a 61% chance we finish first in the East and 1% chance of Supporters Shield. At 59 points there would be a 24.2% chance we win SS. One of the most fun features here is showing the effect that the result of upcoming games will have on playoff chances. But because it is behind schedule that’s not as much fun. For example, it says a loss to the Impact would knock the playoff chances down 2.9% and a win raises it 7.2%.
2015 Weekly Update July 17
We’re up to 3rd place Supporters Shield, and tied for 4th by PPG. Those are new highs for the team.
Now up to 2 games over .500 against the East, and 1.50 PPG.
This is heady stuff. We were crap last year. Last year at this point we had 24 points, six wins, and Lampard hadn’t shown up yet after 21 games.
Starting with the win against Vancouver, which ended the 7-game winless streak, Las Palomas have earned 2.0 PPG over 13 games. Keep that up over the last 13 games (that’s a big IF) and that’s 59 points.
On the road the Robber Barons are at 1.90 PPG for the whole season. That is better than the combined H/A PPG for every team in the league except Colorado. Three more road wins in 7 tries and we tie the “modern” MLS record. We have twice as many road wins as home wins. We have more road wins that 11 teams have home wins (12 if you count ourselves).
With 13 games to go, we need just 4 or maybe even just 3 more wins probably to get the Celestes a playoff spot.
We’re aiming higher at this point.
After the next game against the Red Bulls there will no longer be a H/A imbalance in games played. That’s bad/good news if you can figure it out.
We have a 3-point lead on the Union, and the closest thing to bad news is that they can erase that by winning their extra game remaining. The good news is that extra game is on the road. They have 6H left and 8A, and they are terrible on the road, with only one win in 9 tries so far.
The playoff line projection is trending down. Will it pick up again like last year? If it stays where it is we’re virtually a playoff lock.
The what-we-need-to-do part is starting to look easy:
2016 Weekly Update July 11
Very busy so this will be short this week.
We had 1/3 possession, and were outshot almost 5-1.. We had a clearly tired team from 90º heat, 3 games in one week, and 10 hours in an airport. It happens.
We slipped to second place in PPG, but still look to be in solid shape overall. Most of the East will pick up a game on us this week as we are off midweek but Chicago, Columbus, Montreal, Orlando, RB, Toronto all play Wednesday. Come Sunday, Montreal should have the tired legs and our boys will be well rested.
After one win and one loss here’s an idea of what the team needs to do to reach assorted levels.
Our West record drops to 3-2-0 (1.8 PPG) and Road sits at 5-3-1 (1.78). In the biggest game for us on Wednesday, let’s go Portland.
NYCFC Playoff Odds July 8, 2016
Luck As A Factor In NYCFC’s Early Season Woes 2016
NYCFC’s2016 Road Record In Historic Context
2016 Weekly NYCFC Numbers Analysis Update July 5
Toronto (TFC) Has A Very Favorable Late Season Schedule 2016
NYCFC 2015 vs 2016: Charts Edition – July 3, 2016