Archives for August 2018

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It’s not pretty for finishing top 2.
Atlanta has 17 points from its previous 8 games. If they get 17 from the final 8 coming up, NYC has to win every game to pass them. But, Atlanta has Away games at DC, RBNY, and TFC. If they lose all 3 and tie one somewhere, that’s only 13 points, and NYC needs to finish . . . . . . 6-1-1 just to draw even on points, then probably have the same number of wins, and likely lose on GD. Also note that Atlanta lost 4 games all year, and losing 3 of the final 8 represents a major slump. It can happen. Worse can happen. But these are major hurdles.
Viewed game-by-game, RB might have an easier schedule than Atlanta, with the toughest games being Away in DC, and hosting Toronto (poor road record but finally in decent form) and Atlanta. They also have some middling Away games in Montreal and Philly. The Impact are above average at Home, though not by a lot. The Union are exactly mid-table on Home form, but seem improved. The Red Bulls’ other 3 games are easy: home to Houston and Orlando (7 Away points and 6, respectively) and travel to San Jose (8 points in 12 games). A poor 4-3-1 finish for RB is 65 points, and NYC must finish 5-0-3 or better to exceed that. Red Bull schedule is kind of crazy right now, after hosting Houston they go to Montreal on Saturday. Five games in 15 days. This could be NYC’s opening, but if they don’t drop points here…

Most likely, NYCFC needs one of Atlanta and RB to lose all its remaining tough games, plus suffer an upset or 2, to have a meaningful chance to overtake them. Also, a 7-game winning streak like Seattle has going would help (though still not guarantee anything).

It feels as if NYC has been treading water since the start of the season, but look at it this way. NYC started 5-0-2 (2.43 PPG). Since then the PPG over the next 19 is 1.63. That is a significant drop, but besides Atlanta and RB, only Dallas, SKC and LAFC are better over the entire season (and LAFC barely so). If you excised those teams’ best 7-game stretch it would get much uglier for them. In sum, NYC’s season disappoints because Atlanta and the Red Bulls are heading to possible all time great seasons at the same time in the same conference.

Who do you want to face in a first round playoff matchup? The Union seem likely to grab the 5th spot, with a puncher’s chance at catching the Crew. The mostly likely 6th place finishers are DC, the Impact, and Toronto. 538 ranks their chances in that order, with a big gap after DC. I know some people have shown concern over facing Toronto. Even DC, though much weaker on the road, could be scary given their surge. It could be that the best thing NYC can do to improve its chances would be to win both games against DC and make it a little more likely that Montreal slips in.

This week I’m just going to drop the charts and graphs and then offer some quick hits, mostly on other clubs.

First, the NYCFC notes: the graphs show that the 2018 lines have dipped down to meet the 2017 lines on a couple of graphs, but 2018 still has a slight lead with 47 points through 25 games compared to 46 last year. Also, in 2017, games 25-27 were the high point. After a solid but unspectacular start, the 2017 team won 8 of 11 games from game 15 to 25, then had a draw (away at RBA) and a win (home against SKC in the rain), then won only once in the last 7 chances.

Turning to our rivals, the chart immediately above shows that although the schedule timing is skewed, the Red Bulls and Atlanta have perfectly matched point totals starting with game 21 for each team and this has maintained through game 24, with Atlanta winning a game 25 the Red Bulls haven’t played yet. Just a reminder that the win NYCFC fans so desperately want this week also helps Atlanta.

DC has already made it closer sooner than I expected, with the one big win — based on strength of opponent — over Portland midweek, and another big win — based on rival for the playoff spot — over New England last night. I’m sticking with my prediction that DC does not make it though right it looks like I will be wrong. Their biggest issue could be having games stacked on top of games. From the end of July through mid-October they average a double game week about every other week with one international break mixed in. Last year Atlanta stumbled near the end of a similar schedule.Still, they are in solid shape.

Looking West, and speaking of Portland, after not losing for 15 games they have lost 3 straight, while the once stumbling SKC has won 3 straight. Seattle have climbed over the playoff line based on PPG if not actual standings, and are the latest flavor of the week in that conference. Meanwhile Dallas just keep churning and staying on on top, with only 5 losses and quality wins over LAFC, Atlanta, and SKC.

With 70% of the season completed, NYCFC is currently on pace to finish with its highest point total ever, exceeding the previous high by 10 points, and yet attain its lowest place in the standings since its first year.  Note these are as of Monday and do not include this week’s midweek games.

As additional reference for the pace being kept by the top 3 East teams, remember that last year Toronto ran away with the league at 69 points and was considered at least a respectable candidate for best MLS team ever. Throw in Dallas and this year there is a strong chance of 4 MLS teams with more than 60 points.

Even accounting for H/A splits, DC’s remaining schedule is only slight easier than Montreal. Philadelphia’s schedule is tough, but they have a bit of a cushion. I think Wazza does not experience his first MLS playoff game this year.
In the West, LAFC has the easiest schedule, with only 1 game left against the league’s top 6 teams, against whom they are 0-5-3 for 0.43 PPG. I think they will climb higher again in the West .
Gator and Soup handled the schedule info above for the top of the East. To their efforts I would add that Atlanta has 4 straight away games against bottom of the table teams, but it is still 4 straight road games. DC is showing some life, as is Colorado after acquiring Acosta. By the number, though, their only tough game is in Harrison.
Red Bulls have tough road opponents in Vancouver, NYC, Montreal, and Philadelphia. Yes 3 of those teams are middling overall, but the home records are solid. The Philadelphia game is the week before decision day and the Union’s last home game, which they might desperately need to make the playoffs. The Red Bulls also play both the Embers and Atlanta, while ATL and NYC are done with each other.
Still, there is no dispute NYC has the toughest remaining schedule of the 3. At 1.55 PPG, the Union have the lowest Home PPG of any of NYC’s remaining road opponents. The only real positive is that after the Red Bulls next week, the remaining 4 home opponents are all poor to terrible road teams.

Keep the remaining schedule in mind when looking at this table:

NYCFC can exceed it’s best point total even with a severe slump.

NYC can achieve its first clinch of the year this weekend (and so can Atlanta and the Red Bulls):

Apologies for the random team order. Max is the total of a team’s points so far plus their possible if they win out. Delta +1 is the difference between a Team’s Max and NYC’s current total (47) + 1 to eliminate tie scenarios. That represents the points NYC must win and/or that team drop for NYC to clinch. Minimum games is the least number of combined games by NYC and that team for a potential clinch. This weekend, if NYC wins and Chicago draws or loses, then NYC cannot finish lower than Chicago.

FInally, here are the year-to-year NYC charts.

Four points from 9 (or worse) might be a good official definition of a slump for good MLS teams. The travel schedule between the 2 road games a week ago was hideous, but the easier game was first, and it was reasonable to expect at least 6 points from this set of 3 games. The race with Atlanta and Red Bulls has no room for bad results. Nobody needs the charts to know that but here they are:

Next week I might go ahead and add DC into the East line graph for maximum chaos. Their line should rise though I don’t think they will make the playoffs. DC has 3 Away games left, against NYCFC, RB, and Chicago. Do they get 3 points?. That gives them 21 with the 18 they have. Figure they need 44 to ensure a playoff spot. That means they need 23 points in their 12 home games. Their Home opponents include Portland, Atlanta, Red Bulls, Dallas, Toronto, and NYCFC. Let’s give them 9 points from those 6 games, which I think could be generous. That means they need another 14 from the other 6 games, which requires 4-0-2 or better. They’re not that good to manage all of those pieces and not slip somewhere.

Back to NYCFC, the draw with Vancouver means the Pretty Pineapples started the season 5-1-0 against the West (3H3A), and then went 1-2-2 (2H3A) in the next 5. One game, away at Minnesota remains. Remember that NYC is playing an imbalanced H/A schedule against the West to offset having the extra home games against both Orlando and Red Bulls.

Finally, Villa’s absence from the vancouver game means the team has now had one DP miss at least 10 games in every season to date. This is, however, easily the best season in terms of DP playing time (and I would argue performance based on the eye test and such).
In 2015, Lampard was late and missed games after he did show, Pirlo did not sign until July, and Villa missed a small handful of games. In 2016 Lampard missed the first 12, then another 3 later on in the season, while Villa and Pirlo missed a combined 3 games. Last year, Pirlo played only 15 and missed 19, largely due to coach decisions, while Villa missed 3 and Maxi 5. This year, Maxi and Medina have played every game to date, though Medina had low minutes early on. Here is the average number of DPs to play in each game year to year:
2015 1.56
2016 2.47
2017 2.26
2018 2.57

A sad milestone. I dropped the top line from the chart showing sample finishes and total points. It was 78. NYC could potentially finish 12-0-0 and get 79 points, but that’s neither likely nor something for which you need my chart. The plus is the chart had been sitting with a top line that had zero losses for a while without forcing my hand:

There’s now little room to falter and reach 70, though there are possibilities I don’t show. Nine wins and 1 or 2 losses get to that marker.

In the previous post on interconference play thread you can see that the West is winning those contests by a bit. The east has a combined higher PPG because the East teams draw less often against each other and that pushes their PPG slightly ahead.
On this chart Toronto just needs to pass 2 teams to make the playoffs, but the gap between Toronto and those teams is substantial. Assuming neither of those teams improves by much, Toronto needs 44-45 points to jump ahead of them. To get 45, TFC needs 23 points in its last 13 games. That would mean, for example, winning at least 6 of their final 7 home games (18 points) and winning 2 of 6 Away for 46 points. But Toronto’s has a very tough schedule. It includes hosting Atlanta, NYCFC, and both LA teams plus Away at Atlanta, Portland, Red Bulls, DC, and Montreal, all excellent home teams. That leaves only 4 relatively easy games Away at San Jose, and home to Montreal, New England, and Vancouver. 2017 Toronto could handle that. 2018 Toronto will earn its way in if it manages to do so.

Four straight wins means even a disappointing loss does not push the lines uncomfortably close above any prior seasons.