Archives for June 2018

• Yesterday was NYCFC’s 50th win in regular season MLS. They have played 118 games for a PPG of 1.517. The complete record is 50-39-29. Home PPG is 1.847. Away PPG is 1.186.
• The 2018 Away PPG is 1.125 and needs to be better.
• The top 3 in the East have opened a substantial gap between them and the rest of the conference. The projected difference between the Red Bulls and Crew is almost 15 points at year end. That is twice as large as the next biggest gap between RSL and Portland at just under 7 points.
• NYCFC has a schedule that should allow it to improve its road record.
• NYC has only 7 games remaining against the current projected playoff teams in both conferences. There are no more games against those teams in the West. Against the East Conference playoff teams, NYC has 5 Home games remaining (RB, RB, CLB, NER and PHI) and only 2 Away (CLB and PHI).
• Against the current non-playoff teams, there are 4 Home (CHI, MTL, DCU, VAN) and 7 Away (ORL, CHI, MTL, TOR, DCU, MNU, SEA).
• In contrast, 7 of the 8 Away games to date have been against teams above the playoff line, while only 3 of the 8 Home games have been. I expect that NYCFC will not remain undefeated at Home, but should more than double its Away wins.
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• As a for example, NYC can get to the 11 wins neighborhood by winning 7 of 9 remaining at Home plus 4 of 9 Away.
• Finally, I added Chicago to the below. They’re not exactly tearing up the chart, but they deserve to be there at least as much as Orlando or Toronto at this point.

I skipped a Week 15 update as Week 16 was both starting and finishing just 3 days later. And then I managed to title the first table below Week 15 by mistake.

• Atlanta just keeps winning road games. Their Away game PPG is 2.13 which is better than any team’s combined full record. But Atlanta is not the only team getting it done Away. Here is a list of teams with a better Away record than NYCFC right now: Atlanta, Dallas, SKC, LAFC, RB, Columbus, Vancouver, Chicago, Portland and the Galaxy. That is basically every team NYC is trying to best for top of the East, for CCL, and Supporters Shield, plus a few head scratchers. Some of these are barely ahead of NYC on Away PPG, but the Pigeons should be well ahead of them. To be fair, NYC’s Away schedule has been extremely tough, but this is still a disappointment.
• Atlanta winning in Columbus was especially disappointing as it was one of 4 remaining Away games that stood apart from the rest of their schedule as being tough. The remaining 3 at this point are Dallas, in Harrison, and at Toronto on Decision Day, which is looking less and less tough every week. Their other Away games are going to be Philadelphia, Montreal, Orlando, DC, Colorado, San Jose. Anything can happen, especially at Away games, but except for Philadelphia and maybe DC, I don’t see these teams posing much of a threat. If Atlanta is going to stumble, it will likely be injuries, or just an inexplicable downturn in their run of form.
• NYC is 3-3-2, 1.375 PPG, over its last 8 games, evenly split between Home and Away. That’s not good at all.
• By virtue of PPG, NYC has a whisker thin edge over RB, but if RB wins it’s extra remaining game, it has the upper hand.
• Comparing East and West, the West team is better at spots 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, and 9, with spot 5 being a draw.
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• Right now, the first 6 lines on the “what if” table all require NYC to play better than it has to date, and its record over 8 games, basically a quarter season, is way below all of them. The schedule gets easier, but if results do not turn around soon, true excellence and other regular season goals will move out of reach.
• Toronto has to finish above 2 of these teams to make the playoffs. Orlando and Philly are making that seem possible right now despite TFC’s continued disappointing results.

I think it’s time to level some attention on the neglected stepchild of MLS, the Supporters Shield race. That means taking a look at the West.

• Dallas and Sporting KC are both ahead of NYC. All the attention has been on Atlanta because of the Eastern Conference competition, and the 2-year CCL spot race. SKC has no CCL relevance, as they already qualified with their USOC win last year; Dallas started this year 11 points back (their current point total puts them even with the Red Bulls on adam‘s CCL Race chart, albeit with one fewer game in hand). But both SKC and Dallas factor into the SS and even if you don’t care about that, both SKC and FCD are potential MLS Cup Final opponents should NYC ever get that far, and playing them in Yankee Stadium would be nice. NYC has won against both teams, which is a real accomplishment: Dallas has not lost to anyone else and SKC’s has only one other loss. They are ahead of NYC because almost nobody else can beat them. They also both have more away wins than NYC despite playing fewer Away games to date. They still have both games remaining against each other — one of those in Week 33, so points will be dropped by somebody there, and maybe a draw means points dropped for both. Dallas hosts Atlanta in a midweek Independence Day matchup where I expect we will prefer Dallas. SKC has to go to Portland this Saturday, where the Timbers have not lost. I am going to disagree with Adam’s CCL post from this morning and root for the Timbers.
• More from the above chart: the West has 3 teams worse than Montreal. But overall the West is much improved over last year. I will update the Interconference Play thread soon, and the East has a small lead, having played most of the games at home. Last year the Fifth Place East team had more points than the best of the West, and it was clear by this point of the season that the East winner would win the SS. That is not the case this year. The East can win the SS to be sure, but it is just not a certainty.
• For the first time this year I think Toronto will have to fight to make the playoffs. They still have a good shot, if only because Orlando and the Union seem destined to self-destruct, but it is going to take a significant run. They now need 1.77 PPG to get to 50 points. Though they managed 2.03 PPG over a full season last year, 1.77 is still a tough ask and such a turn-around for a team that seems to have a major hangover from 2 straight MLS cup final runs and their CCL play this year.
• The NYC year to year line charts:
• NYCFC’s next MLS season win will be number 50 of their history. Their next loss will be number 49.
• Final season point goals: