This site seems to have resumed regular updates:
It says NYCFC needs 60 points to have a better than 50% chance at Supporters Shield, 55 points is 50%+ to finish first in the East, and 52 points to finish at least second and get a bye.
http://playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html has Toronto at 43% to win the East, NYC at 37%, and RB at 9%.
NYC’s chance of finishing first or second is up to 71%. I have to think 5-6% of that is thanks to Patrick Mullins last night. What an awesome trade.