In the last 5 seasons of MLS, all 34 game seasons, here is every team that had a .500 road record or better, with their Road Points, Home Points, and Total:
Rd Hm Tot
2015 VAN 24 29 53
2014 SKC 25 24 49
2014 SEA 27 37 64
2013 SKC 28 30 58
2012 SKC 29 34 63
2012 SJ 30 36 66
2011 SEA 32 31 63
2011 LAG 26 41 67
Here’s what I notice. Outside of 2014 SKC, they are all really good teams. Vancouver 2015 has the next lowest point total and it finished 3rd in Supporters shield. Also, 6 of the 8 had more Home points than Road Points. For teams like us, just looking to sneak into the playoffs somehow, 2014 SKC is our only model.
Here is our current Home/Road Point Record Split:
Home 1-2-5 8pts
Away 3-2-1 10 Pts
Here’s how we get to 2014 SKC totals:
Home: 5-3-1 16 Pts 1.78 PPG
Road 4-4-3 15 Pts 1.36 PPG
You can adjust that. Maybe you want to flip a win between Home and Away. If you think it will take fewer than 49 points to make the playoffs, play with it that way. I think there’s a decent chance that 46 or 47 makes it, but there’s still not a lot of wiggle room.
If NYCFC doesn’t manage to keep up it’s Away success, and slips to just one game under on the Road for the year, here is what we are looking at as an example to get to 49 Points.
Home 6-2-1 19 Pts 2.11 PPG
Away 3-5-3 12 Pts 1.091 PPG
Current PPG Standings:
So the current Playoff line looks like 42 points. If that sounds encouraging remember that it started May at 38.
Ignoring Home/Away here is what we need to do to reach assorted point totals:
I guess I think we’ve shown ourselves weak at home for a full season plus while our road success is 6 games. So that’s why I fear that.
But let met get uncharacteristically positive.
Last year both our records were bad, and Home was better than Away, as is normal. But, relative to our league position our Away Record last year was better than Home. We finished 17th in the league overall, but we had the 19th best Home record, and were tied for 13th Best Away record. So I guess there’s some basis for saying our Away record so far this year is not a fluke. I hope so.
PS: We actually had better Away records than the Galaxy, Dynamo, and RSL last year (plus some of the expected bottom-dwellers). We tied with DC and Toronto on Away points.
What it comes down to is simple: either you think we will jump to getting 1.6 or more PPG at home in our last 9 home games after getting 1.0 PPG in our first 8, or you don’t.
Alternatively, you think we will continue to have the best Away record in MLS ( or at least top few), or you don’t.
Or some combo of the above Plus the East (excluding NYCFC) has lots and lots of ties and continues losing to the West.
None of those is crazy talk, but some require many parts to go right.
Currently, our home PPG is 1.0 and Away is 1.67. If we do that to the end of the season we get 45 points. we would also have a season for the ages, opposite of all home away trends by an absurd amount. So I agree we will revert to the mean.
If we revert to the mean we do better. Last year playoff teams earned 2.04 PPG at home and 1.06 at home.
If we do that from this point we get 49 points.
If you’re not concerned that we might be more likely to drop our Away performance towards average than to double our home PPG, I admire your sunny disposition. I still think we can do it, but we’ll be skating at the margins of history if we do.
Orlando has one road win. They got it against us.
New England has 3 points of 18 from its road games. One is from us.
Chicago has 2 points of 15 from its road games. One is from us.
The Red Bulls have one road win. Against us.