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NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers – MLS Week 20 July 24

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I’m glad the Toronto and Chicago games came in a single game week. Separately they lead to extremes of despair and euphoria; together we have a chance of making some sense. NYC has gained ground on both this week thanks to the win over Chicago and Toronto’s draw at home against a Colorado team who won it’s first road point all year in 8 attempts. TFC dropped points 2 games in a row for the first time since April 8. Chicago has also dropped points 2 games in a row and it is their first time since May 6, which capped a 3-game winless streak. Following that, the Fire did not lose for 11 straight until Saturday against NYC. Behind NYC, Atlanta and the Red Bulls have both won 4 of the last 5 (Atlanta 5 of 6 even) and tightened up the playoff positioning race. For all the perception that RB has slipped they have a better record right now than they did last year at this point. In 2016, however, they did not lose after July 3 so they have a tough road to maintain that position.

The Galaxy lead the league with 5 road wins. Next come 4 teams with 4 Away wins, and all of them are above the playoff line in the East: Toronto, NYC, Atlanta and RB. This is largely why the East is so competitive and why the fifth best team in the East projects to more wins than the second best team in the West.

Dallas has won 3 in a row and slipped ahead of NYC in the SS race. They have just 3 Away wins but have as many Away points (13) as NYC and did that playing one fewer road game. Road draws. They have 4, NYC has 1. They have a winning road record, NYC a losing road record. Road draws.

It probably takes 6-7 wints to keep NYC ahead of Atlanta and the other chasers, and 8-9 wins to have a shot at Chicago and/or Toronto, depending on how much they falter, if at all. After this next Away game in Toronto the 2 toughest road games remaining are Chicago and the Red Bulls. The rest, Galaxy, Colorado, Montreal and New England are games not to lose: 8 points from those 4 at least. At home, NYC has the Red Bulls as the toughest opponent, then SKC and Houston as modestly challenging, and New England, Portland and Columbus.

Not much of a story in the graphs this week that is new, but here they are.

2017 MLS Interconference Play – Week 20 July 24

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Week 20 – 7 Games 
East Record 3-3-1
At Home 2-2-1
On Road 1-1-0
Goal Differential +4
East Points 10
West Points 10

Season To Date
East Record 34-24-22
At Home 26-5-8 (39)
On Road 8-19-14 (41)
Goal Differential +30
East Points 124
West Points 94

Modest success for the West this week, breaking even in a week with 5 of 7 games held in East Conference stadiums. Red Bulls won 2 of the games for the East this week, and singlehandedly had a +7 Goal Differential, but still have a losing record against the West overall. On the other hand, since they are thick in the middle of the East Conference standings, it is probably better for them to overperform against the East, which they are doing relative to themselves.

NYC is also doing better against the East than the West, though manages a winning record against both. NYC also has a small overload of West Conference games remaining, making up 5 of the remaining 13. Overall, 67% of the interconference games are done, while NYC has only played 55%.

NYCFC 2017 Weekly Update By The Numbers – MLS Week 19 July 8

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I don’t think either Toronto or Chicago will finish with 68 points. If they do NYC is not catching them. I do think it will take more than 60 points to win the East (and therefore almost certainly also win the SS). It might even take more than 60 points to finish second.

So I heavily adjusted the what if table to add 4 point values of 60 or higher.


That is a minimum of 8 wins in the last 15 games to at least be in the mix. Let’s play out the 63 point target breaking it down to Home and Away. NYC has 8 Home Games and 7 Road games remaining. A record of 7-0-1 at home and 2-3-2 Away would get the 63 points. Make sure the Home draw is not TFC or Chicago and the 3 Away losses are not TFC or Chicago, and NYC will probably have done most of what is necessary to catch one or both without needing much help. It is not mathematiclly guaranteed to be enough, but it makes the probabilities look pretty good.

In the other direction, to give an idea of the cushion NYC has before it could slip to Fifth Place and face an elimination road playoff game, the curent team in 5th place (Orlando) would need to go 8-2-4 to get 57 points. They have 14 games remaining with 6 Home and 8 Away. Win all 6 at home and they still have to go 2-2-4 Away just to get 57 points. That seems very unlikely. Unless NYC falls off a fair bit, it should not cause any worry about finishing below 4th Place. Orlando fans are very unhappy about the low rankings they have been getting from MLS writers lately. But they have a -7 GD, the benefit of a lot of 1 goal wins, and an unfavorable schedule.

Mind Your Draws
NYC is behind the leaders because it dropped too many points at home and failed to add some cheap 1 point draws on the road. At home, NYC has dropped more points (7), than TFC and Chicago have combined (6.) Neither leader has lost at home.

TFC has the same number of road wins as NYCFC does and Chicago has 2 fewer (Chicago has 1 road game in hand).
TFC also has 2 more road points than NYC because it earned 2 additional draws, not wins. NYC’s road problem is that when it doesn’t win, it loses. NYC is tied for most Away wins in the East, but only 4 East teams have more road losses, and only 3 East teams have as many or fewer points from Away draws. Away draws aren’t sexy, but they are the bread and butter of Away competence. Not getting road draws and the Home loss to Orlando is why NYC is 5 points back.

Another way to look at it is NYC has 2 Home draws and only 1 on the road. That kills because Home draws mean points dropped while Away Draws are points earned. Flip that in a favorable fashion so NYC has 1 Home Draw and 2 Away. Vonverting one Home draw into a win adds 2 points. Make one Away Loss into a Draw adds 1. That would leave NYC just 2 points behind both East leaders even with the extra Home Loss worth 3 points. Drawing more at home than on the road is not something a top contender can afford to do.

Team 2017 is 3 points ahead of Team 2016 after 19 games. The big advantage Team 2017 has is 8H/7A remaining compared to 6H/9A for 2016.

2017 MLS Interconference Play – Week 18

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Week 18 ended in the middle of a holiday weekend and Week 19 started 2 days later so I need to catch up.

Week 18 – 4 Games 
East Record 3-1-0
At Home 2-0-0
On Road 1-1-0
Goal Differential +5
East Points 9
West Points 3

Season To Date
East Record 29-18-19
At Home 23-3-7 (33)
On Road 6-15-12 (33)
Goal Differential +28
East Points 106
West Points 73