City Blues By The Numbers

You are here: Home / 2016 Weekly Updates NYCFC / 2016 Weekly Update – September 13 MLS Week 27

2016 Weekly Update – September 13 MLS Week 27

September 13, 2016 by Mark Leave a Comment

I present your Third Place New York City Football Club. Ugh.

What a bad week of results.  The only real positive was that DC United pulled back a tie after being down 2-0 to the Red Bulls. Thanks to that NYC is tied with RB and not 2 points behind. The Philadelphia/Montreal tie was good, but neither team seems much of a threat.  Toronto’s win in Chicago ends TFC’s “tough”schedule stretch in which they had to play 4 of 5 on the road before finishing with 5 of 6 at home. Before that 4 0f 5 stretch started I wrote“If TFC gets just 7 or 8 points in their next 5 tough games they are in very good shape even if NYC gets 18-20 more points overall.TFC is very likely to get 12 points in their last 6, with 5 of them at home against weak road teams. So 8 + 12 would mean 20 points in their last 11 and 56 total. NYC needs to go 6-2-2 to beat that. That’s doable, but I’d feel a lot better if TFC gets say, 5 or 6 points in the next 5 games. ”

Well, TFC got 10 points in those 5 games, oddly winning 3 of the 4 Away and losing at Home. In that same period NYC earned only 7 points in 5 games. Now TFC sites 2 points up plus a game in hand. First place seems extremely unlikely. But who knows. Maybe TFC collapses at home.  I would not count on it but this season is very unpredictable so it would not be a shock either.

The larger concern is being tied with the Red Bulls with 5 games to go. We both have 3 Home Games and 2 Away. At this point we are both strong at Home and weak Away. We could easily finish tied. The first tiebreaker is Number of Wins. We are currently even and with 5 games to go it is likely that if we finish tied the two teams will still be tied on Wins. Yes, NYC could go 3-2-0 while RB goes 2-0-3 but more likely we stay tied on Wins.  Then the nest tiebreaker is Goal Differential. Here, there is no hope. RB has a +12 GD and NYC sits at -1.  The odds of that changing while the teams remain tied on Points and Wins is effectively zero. Even if NYC gets 5 wins and RB gets 5 losses it is not so very likely to change. The point being that NYC needs to finish ahead of RB on points to finish ahead of RB, to finish second, and to get the first-round playoff bye. Barring a convenient NY-RB collapse, NYC will need to resume winning on the road.

NYC’s poor Away form means the team has not had even a solid 2-game streak of good results since winning 4 in a row in a streak that straddled June and July. In the 10 games since then the best “streak” for NYC was 2 draws in a row as the results have been L-W-L-W-D-D-W-L-W-L.  Whether NYC can change its road results back to positive will likely determine where it finishes. Getting either 4 or 6 points in the final 2 Away games would be huge. Even getting 3 could be a difference maker.

The East Conference PPG Playoff line is still pointing in the low 40s, with no indication it will move anywhere near last year’s line of 49.

screen-shot-2016-09-13-at-8-44-08-am

Even if Orlando goes on a streak, Montreal seems stuck in a mid-40s range and is drifting lower right now, so that is probably a ceiling on this year’s line.

Finally, and sadly, I had to cross out 3 possibilities at the top of the What-We-Need-To-Do chart.

screen-shot-2016-09-13-at-8-47-12-am

It is impossible to get 62, 60,, or 58 points.  A record of 5-0-0 would get 59, not shown on the chart. That is the team’s maximum right now.

UPDATE: I forgot to add the following earlier.

 

With the loss to NE Revs, NYC’s record against the East drops to a very mediocre 7-7-7 for 1.33 PPG. Against the West the Blue Birds are 5-2-1 and 2.0 PPG.

The Home Record is 6-3-5 1.64 PPG and the Away record drops to 6-6-3 1.40 PPG.

Finally, the loss also means limited headway on the playoff clinching front. A win would have guaranteed that NYC finishes ahead of the Revs. Instead it still takes a minimum of two games of perfect results to clinch over the Revs, as well as Chicago and Columbus. It will take at least 3 good game results to do the same for DCU or Orlando.

 

Filed Under: 2016 Weekly Updates NYCFC

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

About Page and My Other Blogs

About and the Rules

Privacy

My Photo Blog

My Dad’s Autograph Collection and Sketches

Other NYCFC Sites

NYCFC Forums

The Outfield

Categories

  • 2015 Weekly Updates
  • 2016 NYCFC Assorted
  • 2016 Weekly Updates NYCFC
  • 2017 Weekly Updates NYCFC
  • 2018 Weekly Updates
  • 2019 Interconference Play
  • 2019 Weekly Updates
  • Interconference 2018
  • Interconference Play 2016
  • Interconference Play 2017
  • Methodologies
  • MLS Assorted
  • NYCFC Misc

Archives

  • September 2022
  • May 2022
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • January 2019
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • August 2015

Recent Posts

  • Goal Differential Minus xGoal Differential – Spoiler: It’s About Cushing
  • NYCFC May 30, 2022 – Odds’n’Ends, Shapes and Contrasts
  • NYCFC 2020 In Review By The Numbers
  • The Best of Times, The Worst of Times
  • NYCFC 2020 – 15 Games In – 8 To Go

Recent Comments

  • JC on NYCFC May 30, 2022 – Odds’n’Ends, Shapes and Contrasts
  • visit this link on Boys Keep Swinging — NYCFC Weekly Update MLS Week 26 September 2, 2019
  • Mark on If Every MLS Team Were A Ride At Disney World
  • Michael B Parker on If Every MLS Team Were A Ride At Disney World
  • If Every MLS Team Were A Ride At Disney World on In My Beginning Is My End – NYCFC Weekly Update October 7, 2019 MLS Week 31

Meta

  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.org

Copyright and Disclaimers

Copyright (c) Mark Garbowski 2015-2019. All rights reserved.

I have no ads or commercial interests in connection with this blog so I need no disclaimers.

Copyright © 2023 · Agency Pro on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in