- NYC has more points at home than Atlanta does in 2 fewer games. Atlanta is outpacing NYC on the road, albeit against somewhat lesser competition. I don’t think that many folks saw that coming. The Away game in Houston this coming week is the sort of game NYC will need to win to keep pace with Atlanta’s Away record and RB overall.
- While it is a positive that NYC is done with what was probably the toughest part of its schedule, and Atlanta and RB probably have yet to face theirs, it is not the case that ATL and RB will have to go through something similar to NYC this year. NYC has already faced away games against the top 3 teams in the West (SKC, LAFC, and POR). Atlanta and Red Bulls both play all 3 of those teams at home this year. Columbus — like NYCFC — plays all of them on the road.
- Speaking of which, here are the next 5 games for Columbus: @SKC, TFC, RBNY, ATL, @LAFC. By the end of that we should have a good idea if the Crew is an illusion held afloat by an easy early schedule or the real deal.
- With Houston next week, NYC will have played 9 of its first 13 against the West. All that is left is @SEA 7/29, VAN 8/4, and @MIN 9/29. The club sits at 6-1-1 through 8 games, evenly split Home and Away. NYC will play 5 at Home and 7 Away against the West this year. It makes up for deficit that with extra home games against both Orlando and the Red Bulls.
- The club PPG is 2.375 against the West and only 1.25 in the East, though to be fair, the latter represents only 4 games, 3 of them Away, and 2 of those Away against the top 2 teams in the league to date. NYC has no more games in Harrison or Atlanta and 3 at home against those teams.
- I added an orange line for bye position in the East. If it ever looks like NYC will be in danger of dropping to 5th I will add one for 4th Place.
- Astonishing that right now the projection for 4th Place and a first round home playoff game in the East is higher than what would win Supporters Shield most years before last. I believe it is shaping up to be a 3-team dogfight for the top 2 spots and a bye. As long as you have a Home game and probably win, I’m not sure it is a great disadvantage to finish 3rd. Maybe a play-in game is what NYC needs to shake off its First Leg blues, but I still hope for Supporters Shield and that 2-year cumulative record CCL spot.
- Here are the line graphs and squad goals. The latter shows how hard it is to expect NYC will finish with lower than roughly 60 points this year.
- NYC’s worst 2 and best 2 games roughly cancel out: 4-0 and 4-0 against 0-4 and 0-3.
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