Nine games in, NYCFC has passed the one-quarter mark, and it is time to start with graphs, numbers, and pseudo-legitimate projections. The playoffs seem to be a given, but this team has a realistic chance at Supporters Shield, a CCL spot based on 2-year record, and a playoff bye. Last year at this point NYC was third in both the regular and PPG standings behind Orlando and Toronto. That Orlando did not make the playoffs tells you how much weight to give to anything this early. With 16 points, NYC projected to 60-61 points this time last year, a little above their eventual total due to the late season slump.
- NYC point totals after 9 games
- 2015 – 6
- 2016 – 10
- 2017 – 16
- 2-18 – 20
- Here is how PPG stands stands this year 9-games in:
- RSL, the team NYC destroyed, is just above the playoff line in the West, setting a playoff line at 42-43 points.
- The East playoff line is 52-53 points, with a big jump down to Chicago at 39 in 7th place.
- Last year TFC had 2.03 PPG in their record-shattering season. If they get 1.9 the rest of the way in 2018 they end with 57 points. If they get 2 PGG they will have 60 points. Even acknowledging how skewed things are this early, it very well might require they play that well to get a home game. A first round bye seems very unlikely. Playoffs are still probable unless they suffer a year long slump, but their early start means their margin for the occasional bad result like they suffered to Chicago on Saturday is thin.
- Most folks know that the win over Dallas yesterday means NYC has now won a game against every MLS team except LAFC, who they have not yet played. Here are some related facts:
- NYC has also won at home against every MLS team except LAFC.
- 5 teams (including LAFC) have never won against NYC — the others are Colorado, Houston, Minnesota, and San Jose.
- NYCFC has won an Away game against every MLS team except Atlanta, Colorado, Dallas, LAFC, Minnesota, and RSL. That is only 4 when you exclude Minnesota and LAFC where NYC has never played.
- All-time, NYC has dropped 6 points out of 6 playing in plastic garbage fished out of the ocean.
- Line graphs!
- I dropped 2015 from the line charts. It gets cluttered with more than 3.
- Now for a very optimistic chart of possible future records and final point totals. There are 25 games left to the season:
- Counting the Win-Loss differential and noting its progress over the season is a very baseball way of measuring that does not translate perfectly to soccer, but I still want to note that in 2016 NYC finished with 5 more wins than losses, and 7 in 2017. Right now the team stands at 5+ after only 9 games. If they were to finish with a rather disappointing 10-10-5 and not add anything to that differential they would have 55 points. That is how good this start has been.
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